A Sample Preview – Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore Orioles

            The last time the Baltimore Orioles were an above .500 team was in 2016.  They went 89-73 then and made the Wild Card in the playoffs. Again, last season, BAL was predicted to win a few games and finish last in the AL East. Keep in mind; that this is a team with 100+ losses in 3 of the past five seasons; in one of them, they only played 60 games, so it was 3 of the past four seasons! Amazingly, they won 83 games last season and finished 4th ahead of BOS in the AL East. This is a very young team with emerging talent, so they should be exciting and fun to watch. Unfortunately for them, both the Pythagorean model and the Base Runs models show they were lucky to win as many games as they did in 2022. BAL benefited by either 4 or 5 wins depending on which model you look at, yet that would not have prevented them from a 4th place finish (albeit a much closer finish). This means we need to start with BAL as a just under .500 team with a wins number of 78-80 games. As we dive into their players, we will see if we should expect another greater than .500 season, a playoff run, or a fade.

            The offense ranked 20th in runs scored and 18th in OFF-WAR. It has 99 wRC+, or 1% below an average offense. Their issues are in getting batters on base., They ranked 22nd in OBP. This low rank stems from a batting average of only .236 and below the league average. Their BABIP ranked 22nd, so when they put balls in play, they were worse than the league average at getting on base. BAL was 20 in BB/K, which means free passes were not as plentiful as strikeouts. This is common for a young team learning the strike zone. Another sign of this is they ranked 4th worst at O-Swing% (swing and misses at balls outside the strike zone). They were an average offense in the power departments. They hit 171 HRs, ranking them 16th, and their ISO rank was 14th. As the offense was average in most areas, the starting pitching left a lot to be desired. It ranked 25th in WAR with a 7.2. They threw only 802.1 innings, ranking 23rd and burdening the bullpen with a heavy workload. The starters won 41 games which ranked 21st. By comparison, OAK starters won 40 games. They ranked 22ns in FIP. The key to this was their inability to get strikeouts. They ranked 27th in K/9 under 7.00 at 6.95. There were only five teams that could say that. They also were terrible at allowing HRs, ranking 21st. Due to these factors, teams were able to hit for a high average against them. Opponents batted .265, giving BAL a ranking of 27th! Another way to gauge the performance is to look at ERA- and FIP-. These are based on a 100 scale, and BAL produced 112 in each. It means they were 12% worse than the average staff. The bullpen was how they maintained winning. They ranked 10th in WAR and won 42 games! So, the bullpen won more games than their starters. They threw 631 innings, or 8th most. It ranked 11th in FIP, not so much because of its ability to get strikeouts (22nd ranked) but because they were great at BB/9 (4th) and HR/9 (9th). Hey had only a few free passes and gave up limited HRs! They were top 10 in GB%, leading to the few HRs. It is not that they were unhittable; the opponents batted .238 against them (ranking 20th); moreover, they didn’t put guys on nor allow the ball to be hit out of the park.

            Number one prospect Adley Rutschman made his debut on May 21st. BAL was 16-25 on that date after losing to TB 6-1. Since that date, BAL went 67-54, which was 13 games over .500. He led their offense with an OFF-WAR of 22.5. He produced a WAR of 5.3 which is All-Star caliber. He finished behind league leader JT Realmuto who had a WAR of 6.5. He played in 113 games. He was 3rd in runs scored with 70. He led their team with a BB% of 13.8% and batted .254. He led them with a wRC+ of 133, or 33% better than average. He led their team with 35 doubles, plus he hit 13 HRs. He hit his first HR one month after his debut, so he kept improving as he saw more pitches. He makes contact too. He only struck out 18.3% of the time. Anything under 20% is excellent. He will be 25 years old and looks like the real deal. Anthony Santander led in RBIs (89) and HRs (33). He produced a wRC+ of 120. His OFF-WAR was 15.0 and 2nd on the team. It was the best season of his career. He is only 28 years old, so he should build from this. No other BAL batter had an OFF-WAR in double-digits. Cedric Mullins effectively led the team with a .258 batting average (Mancini had .268 but had 270 fewer at-bats). Mullins also stole 34 bases which was second to Jorge Mateo, who had 35. All three of these hitters have a K% of less than 20%! Ryan Mountcastle was the only other batter over 20 HRs with 22. He also produced 85 RBIs. However, he led the team in strikeouts with 154. Below are the Oriole batters from 2022 and their ZIPS projections for 2023.

            ZIPS Projections

            Whoa! We see someone new atop this list! Gunnar Henderson is this year’s #1 prospect! He is of the ripe old age of 21 years old! His projections are sweet! A 24.8 OFF-WAR and 5.0 WAR lead the team. Look at the RBI 90 and runs 100 projected! He has power, too, with 24 bombs! He plays 3rd base which will supplant the playing time of Jorge Mateo; however, the productivity should be much better! ZIPS has the most aggressive projections for Henderson. Steamer projects a 17.1 OFF_WAR and a 4.1 WAR. Rutschman has a 23.1 OFF-WAR projection, so now they have two bonified offensive performers! Roster Resource suggests that their lineup should be Mullins to leadoff, Rutschman, and Henderson. Add to this the nearly 30 HRs of Santander and Mountcastle, we have the makings of a potent offense. BAL added veteran Adam Frazier to play 2b. He is a well-rounded player who should help with defense and offense. Overall, if things break right, they could be much fun to watch, and their productivity could be much improved. However, things could be more along the lines of learning curves too.

            As we looked at prior, the starting pitchers need some help. Dean Kremer led the staff with a 1.7 WAR. He started 21 games and threw 120 innings. He was great at not allowing HRs or BBs but was not a strikeout pitcher. Unfortunately, this team has no true ace. John Means would be the most qualified for that role, but he was injured last season, only throwing eight innings. He had Tommy John surgery in April of 2022 and is likely to pitch later this season. Journeyman Jordan Lyles made 32 starts and threw 179 innings to lead the team. He also led them in wins with 12. Kyle Bradish is their best K/9 starter with an 8.49. Unfortunately, he also is the worst BB/9 and 2nd worst HR/9! Kremer, at 120 innings, was 2nd most, so innings limits will be a concern in the future. Below are the starting pitcher results for 2022 and the ZIPS projections for 2023.

            ZIPS Projections

            Here we see more significant changes with new names! Cole Irvin from OAK and Kyle Gibson from PHI are newly acquired pitchers. Next, we see John Means with 20 starts and 100+ innings. These are much better options than having Jordan Lyles be your leader. Again, these are not ace-type starters but better than serviceable performers. Now we get to be excited again. We will see Grayson Rodriguez, who is the #7 prospect. He was injured last season, or his debut would have been then. He is only 23 years old. He went 6-1 in 69.2 AAA innings last year. He had an outstanding 12.53 K/9 (97Ks) in those games! His average fastball is 96-98mph hitting 100+ on occasion. He has a big sweeping slider and a hard-breaking curveball. He has the stuff of aces! Roster Resource suggests Gibson will be the number one, then Irvin. Bradish and Kremer stay in the rotation, followed by Rodriguez. Due to the number of innings thrown last year by the starters, they will need to go deeper, using more pitchers than this group. They do have options there. The bullpen had three pitchers with a WAR of 1.0 or more and another who just missed with a 0.9. Felix Bautista led the team with 1.4. He also had a 12.06 K/9 rate! All four of their best relievers did have an issue with BB/9, as they were all over 3.15. Bautista took over the closer role in July and earned 15 saves. He only allowed 38 hits in 65.2 innings.
Bryan Baker produced a 1.2 WAR in 66 innings, and Cionel Perez a 1.0 WAR in 57.2 innings. Neither one will be the primary setup guys for 2023 as Roster Resource suggests Dillon Tate throw the 8th and re-acquired Mychal Givens to pitch the 7th. This bullpen’s depth is excellent by having Baker and Perez slide back. ZIPS projections are high on Bautista but not Givens. Givens is a high K/9 guy, and Tate is not, so their usage could vary, pending on the situation. This bullpen is as good as last season, but it is not better.

            I started by having BAL enter this season at 78-80 wins. Their offense was average, and their starting pitching was below average. They have improved in both areas. Much depends on Henderson and the continued development of their young players. It is often not a pure surge to success but a steady growth. Although improved, they do not match up with NYY, TOR, or TB regarding the pitchers. They cannot overtake any of those teams, but they could compete with TB if the offense comes together rather well. The AL East does get the benefit of a balanced schedule as well. Eighty-two wins (.500) is a reasonable target, and if things break right, maybe the upper 80s in terms of wins.

This is the kind of Spring Training info to be looking for

When it comes to Spring Training, it is important to focus on who is injured, who has changed things, who is limited, and so forth. It is NOT important to focus on games, innings, or results. Sure, that is not a carte blanch statement, but the gist is results are not the most important element to understanding how a team is prepared to start the season. Knowing how pitchers will be used in terms of pitch limits or where they might fall in the bullpen is more important. The same is true for position players. Suppose we can understand if the player is healthy, if there is a role/position change, or if the player is trying to improve his swing. These are the types of notes we should be taking. We should keep an updated list for every team. Another important data point is pitcher velocity gained and lost from the previous year. We can see the rise and demise of pitchers from these reports. If a pitcher loses velocity, there is a strong probability he will not pitch as well as in the past. Pitchers have been gaining velocity with all the specialized work regarding the Rapsoto machine, high-speed cameras, spin rate monitors, and so forth. These pitchers have a great chance of performing better than in the past. This type of information is not built into a line because it is not viewed as important to a power rating. However, we can get a head start on sportsbooks if we know something that can alter the value of a team in the first few weeks of the season, and the sportsbook will have to catch up regarding adjusting their lines.

A perfect example of this information comes from Jeff Zimmerman at Fangraphs. He writes an article named Mining the News. I am pasting a few tidbits from his Feb 2nd article to share, and I encourage you to seek this kind of knowledge and by all means, read his stuff.

• Michael Brantley might not be ready for Opening Day.

Astros outfielder Michael Brantley remains hopeful he’ll be ready to be in the Opening Day lineup following shoulder surgery performed in August. Brantley said Monday he will clear another hurdle next week when he begins taking batting practice, a major step with Spring Training less than three weeks away.

Athletics

• The team will NOT utilize a six-man rotation but will have to be “flexible” with Shintaro Fujinami used to a six-day rotation. • A.J. Puk will be shifted to the rotation. • Dany Jiménez is the favorite to win the closer’s role. • Jesús Aguilar is working on his swing to hit high fastballs.

Mariners

• George Kirby and Logan Gilbert will have their innings limited in Spring Training and to start the season. • Jarred Kelenic is in the base shape of his life. • Cal Raleigh (thumb) and Tom Murphy (shoulder) both had surgery this offseason.

Orioles

• According to the GM, Grayson Rodriguez is expected to make the Opening Day rotation.

Rangers

• Brock Burke could throw over 100 IP out of the bullpen.

Twins

• Kenta Maeda is 100% healthy. • Jorge Polanco is “ready to go“. • Alex Kirilloff still has a sore wrist.

Braves

• Ronald Acuña Jr. thinks he’s back to normal.

Giants

The team plans on utilizing some combination of five-man and six-man rotations and tandem starters.

AFC Championship Game

CIN playing KC has become a rivalry. CIN is 3-0 but has had to come from behind in every one of those games to win. We have superstar QBs, injuries, and flip-flop lines. I have a clear picture of all this offense, all these playmakers.

I don’t think this goes as scripted. These two teams will make long drives with multiple plays (even out of short fields), reducing the clock. Thus I think scoring will not get out of control. Another key here is CIN on defense, especially in the 2nd half. They are the #1 EPA defense in the 2nd half of the NFL! They make tremendous adjustments. Another factor is why I think there will be less scoring than what is thought to be. The total has not flipped like the game spread. It opened at 49, then an adjustment for Mahomes injury, falling to 48.

Let’s look at this too. CIN has better playmakers, a better QB (Mahomes hobbled), a better DL vs. the run, better defense vs. the pass, and better special teams. KC has the better OL and coaching staff. I believe CIN is the better team. According to the Pythagorean wins standings, KC is worse than their actual record, and CIN is better than theirs. Now add that CIN played the 4th most difficult schedule and KC only the 29th! CIN is tested!

In the previous matchups, Joe Burrow has a passer rating of 121.0. He averaged 36 attempts with 26 completions for 327.3 yards. He had 8 TDs and 1 INT! He was sacked 6 times (2 per game avg). Joe Burrow is 23-3 (including the win vs. BUF last week) when he gets sacked 3 or fewer times! He is 4-8 when he gets sacked four or more times. BUF rushes the passer better than KC, and CIN did not have trouble in the snow against them, even with backup linemen in the game. Burrow was 7-8 with 1TD against the blitz vs. KC in week 13. KC will need to find a way to pressure without blitzing. I expect a similar game from them against KC. This bodes well for CIN.

Patrick Mahomes led the league with 183 designed rollouts and scramble-type passes. His passing grade was 2nd best in the league. When he was injured last week, he returned and threw 20 passes. Only 1 was considered a scramble or rollout. I believe he will be more active but not healthy. He will be more limited. A Patrick Mahomes at 70% is better than most teams’ starting QB. I expect KC to run more, thus taking some pressure off Mahomes.

Another factor is the red zone. KC offense is #6, and CIN is #8 (no edge). BUT CIN is #5 in red zone defense, whereas KC is #26! No question it is a big edge for CIN.

I think CIN is the better team. They are tested and riding a winning streak of 10 straight games; they have the better QB and a solid defense. I played CIN +1.5, and CIN +109, and Under 48.

NFC Championship Game

These teams are images of each other in many ways, but some differences swayed me to take action. They are both known for having stellar defenses and the best defenses in the NFL. The quandary is that PHI has been the better team over the season, yet SF has been the better team since acquiring McCaffery. Football Outsiders weighted DVOA (where only recency matters) has SF at 43.9% DVOA and PHI at 26.3%. The gap is substantial.

I thought an underlying issue was going to be that PHI played the 32nd SOS (strength of schedule), which is neutralized by SF having played the 31st. It tells me the data is even between the two. Of the remaining playoff teams, PHI is #1 in EPA on defense in the 1st half, whereas SF is #3. PHI is known to start very fast (#1 in NFL) by scoring an average of 18 points in the 1st half. They are now facing a tough defense but not an impossible one. PHI should have opportunities, as SF does have trouble with QBs who run the football. In 2021, Hurts ran 10 times for 80+ yards, and this season both Marcus Mariotta and Jared Stidham found success. All that said, SF did not allow a single rusher to have over 70 yards rushing this season (PHI had 14 games where that happened). SF will not get gashed here, but Hurts might be why the offense opens up for that passing game. SF is susceptible to play action and deep shots. They rank 24th against those deep passes. PHI will not go up and down the field but can have success.

This is where the rubber hits the road. There has NEVER been a rookie QB starting a Super Bowl game! SF has a rookie QB in Brock Purdy. Yes, he had game managed them to this point, and the defense has held the line. However, I believe PHI is on another type of level. Brock has played 2 away games, one in SEA and one in LV. PHI has the better DL and OL, plus a better ST. This matters because PHI, who had 70+ sacks, will not just pressure Purdy as DAL did; they will put him to the turf. PHI gets pressure from all their pass rushers, whereas SF gets it from Bosa. Purdy was 3-10 for 24 yards vs. DAL under pressure. He was 16-19 for 190 yards when not under pressure. He will see pressure this week! I expect a lesser performance from him. HC Kyle Shannahan will scheme to offset the defense and has many skill players to do, but I think this defense is too much. SF ran the ball 21 out of 30 plays in the 2nd half vs. DAL last week. They were in a game situation that allowed that. What happens if they are behind? I believe PHi will get the early lead, and SF will have to ask too much from the rookie QB.

I played PHI first half -1, PHI full game -2.5, SF Purdy Over 0.5 INT

MLB 2023 Betting Guide and Preview Question?

I am currently writing the MLB betting guide. I have several articles for this season. However, it would be fun to see if there were any topics you wanted to read about or have included in this year’s edition. Please reply and let me know if a topic comes to mind. Thanks as always!

Elite Pitching

I have mentioned that MLB is in an era of elite pitching. The offense is down, and strikeouts are up, causing rule changes (banning the shift) and, on the field, adjustments (such as lower the height fences or moving them in) to aid the batters and run scoring. The casual fan needs to be aware of how good the pitching is. Here is a great way to understand how hard it is to put balls into play. The average velocity on MLB fastballs in 2008 was below 91.5 MPH. In 2014, the velocity was just under 92.5 MPH. The 2018 season had 92.8 MPH., so we can see an increase in velocity. Last season, the average fastball was 95.3 MPH! It was not long ago that 95.3 MPH was the top end. Last season saw 3,356 pitches of 100+ MPH! In 2021 and 2019, there were only 1,056 pitches at that mark. Last season had three pitchers, MIN Jhoan Duran, SEA Andres Munoz, and STL Jordan Hicks, averaging 100+ MPH! Home Runs dropped to 5,215 last year, down from 5,944 in 2021 and sown from the record year (2019) 6,776. Perspective. Bob Gibson had an ERA of 1.12 in 1968 (the year of the pitcher) with 268 strikeouts, 13 shutouts, and a Cy Young award. His velocity that season was 91.9 MPH! Maybe he could compete, but he would not be able to match the level of today’s pitchers! He would likely be the lowest-velocity thrower in a rotation! Let’s take this further. In the Gibson days of complete games, pitchers threw deep into games. Bob Gibson threw 28 complete games in 1968, and Juan Marichal 30. They each threw more than 300+ innings. The average starter in MLB last season threw 5.2 innings per start! There were 35 complete games for the entire league! Gibson and Marichal had 58 for just the two of them.

            This brings the next level of elite pitching most don’t look at. It is popular that we know the names Jacob DeGrom, Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Gerrit Cole, and Sandy Alcantara, but these are very few. We might have a list of nearly 15 pitchers we classify as the best starters. Most starters are out of the game by the 6th inning, and the bullpen takes over. We must start understanding how relief pitchers have become vital to winning games. The best of this group can dominate games more than the starters do. ATL manager Brian Snitker said, “Every time that bullpen door swings open, it’s velocity.” “The guys, they weren’t like that. The closers weren’t throwing like they are now. But it’s kind of the way they are growing up and now are trained. Amazing to me”.  2022 saw starting pitchers average 8.00 K/9. The relievers averaged 9.00 K/9. Remember that they are throwing 3.1 innings per game, or 35%. The best has an unbelievable K/9. Let’s look. NYM Edwin Diaz 17.13, SDP Josh Hader 14.58, CLE James Karinchak 14.31, PHI Jose Alvarado 14.29, MIL Devin Williams 14.24, and Andres Munoz 13.29!

            Only five bullpens out of the thirty teams were 10% or worse than an average bullpen (measured by ERA-). Only ARI 112, BOS 112, KCR 116, PIT 117, and OAK 117 fit that bill (MLB average is 100). The league batting average was .243, and eight bullpens were worse. The starters averaged 1.18 HR/9, and the relievers’ less than one at 0.96. Bullpens have also mastered the slider. It is the pitch that is the toughest on hitters. Only five bullpens were below average when throwing this pitch (CIN, BAL, PIT, WSN, and ARI). The slider seems to hand in hand with fastball usage. These are thrown at velocities never thought of previously. There are enormous numbers of elbow issues with pitchers, and now you can see why. The human body likely is not built to withstand this much torque, so it gives out or breaks.

            When handicapping games, we should look at bullpen usage. On average, a relief pitcher will throw 18 pitches during an outing. The MLB average for a team that used relief pitchers in consecutive games was 87. This suggests that half of the games played saw a relief pitcher used the previous night. We want to know if the pitcher is available for the game we are betting on tonight. An excellent way to look at this is to see how many pitches he threw and when his last outing was. If he were to throw more than 18 pitches, and it was last night, he would likely not be available tonight. It is essential to know who is available too. There is a rotation of sorts to a bullpen. The main guy comes into the game in the ninth inning (closer). He usually has the most dominant weapon and can get outs with limited contact. Then, there are the 7th and 8th inning guys whose job is to get the ball to the closer. They should have shut down innings, handing it off to the team’s best.  As bettors, we want to know if this rotation is intact or if there must be some other plan. It will help you not lose games at the back end because the bullpen gave it up. The bullpen is a weapon for managers. Bullpens can get over-leveraged and tired, so we need to keep an eye on how it is used. Overall, we need to be betting on good bullpens to close out games and against the few who are not.

WBC is coming this Spring!

I will be involved in the World Baseball Classic. I had fun with this the last two times it was played. In the inaugural 2009 classic, Japan won the championship. They were followed by the Dominican Republic in 2013 and the USA in 2017. The last WBC was canceled due to the pandemic. As the players are representing their countries, it feels like there is the energy of a playoff game at the stadium. It is an electric atmosphere! Watch this clip!

So to hype this up a bit more, the rosters this year are a “who’s who” in MLB! I will post them for each team as we get closer to the games, but Team USA is slated to have Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Trea Turner, Mookie Betts, Mike Trout, and more! Team Dominican Republic is slated to have Vladimir Guerrero, Wander Franco, Jose Ramirez, Juan Soto, Julio Rodriguez, and more! These teams are bringing out the stars to play in this event, especially team USA which never really has had the ultra superstars play. There are odds out for this event, and Team USA and Team Dominican Republic are co-favorites at +225 to win. I posted the odds below. These odds are from Draft Kings.

This event starts on the first of March, so as the game is near and rosters solidify, I will dig deeper into the matchups of the teams and players. I will likely wager on a champion and the individual games as well. What a way to start the baseball season!

The 2023 MLB season is on the way!

2022 was a trying year for me, especially regarding sports! I was not able to keep up with my site nor contribute in a meaningful way to the sports wagering community or my own pocketbook for that matter! I had to deal with many issues including the death of my father, a terrible hurricane, and a change in daily life patterns. However, as is usually the case, nothing is insurmountable if some planning and thought go into creating an actionable plan! Hence where I am today!

The plan is to freshen up the website. Use the website in a different manner. Continue to write a daily blog that can be emailed daily if one registers for it. Use this link if that is something of interest to you (https://mlb-daily.com/home/).

Generating an income over the past few years from this endeavor has NOT gone well, in fact, all I have done over the past two years is actually costing me money! However, my time is valuable. My information is valuable. I refuse to continue in 2023 costing myself money. The goal has always been to help aid the gambling community. I am not trying to be rich just want to cover the costs associated with sharing information.

I will still provide a blog that is FREE and will have articles, data, and breakdowns. Some folks will be fine with this, and frankly, it doesn’t take much to accomplish and keep up. So back a few years ago, if you wanted game data and picks, it would cost you $1000 to work with me! My 2 unit plays were all the rage! I don’t want this path either! That is making money from other gamblers on plays I am playing anyway! I believe that is not an appropriate way either. This year I will be utilizing a very popular setup from previous years in a Telegram page. Telegram is a separate app that requires an invite to gain access. I am going to post specific popular items there. The goal is for those who want picks, game odds, line analysis, game breakdowns that I wagered on, and prop bets; you will have access to that but at a minimal cost. I generally provide 1 to 3 MLB sides or totals daily, and now with prop bets such as Kprops for pitchers. Over the course of a week, one would receive anywhere from 10 to 20 selections with analysis so over a month roughly 50-100 wagers! I am posting the popular Webbie Odds to Telegram this year as well. Telegram will allow late action picks based on market moves, player information, or just late news, so there will be another level not experienced by many. Access to this data, breakdowns, and 60-100 wagers will have a price attached. I think something like $49.99 per month ($2 per wager is about as cheap as possible!). It seems reasonable to me but let me know.

Anyway, I look forward to an amazing MLB season with folks from the past and as many new folks as possible. Stay tuned as the website will be renewed shortly!

Who are the best pitchers limiting base runners and are they worth betting on?

Let’s determine what makes a great starting pitcher. It is two things. First they must be dominant in the “3 True Outcomes” and second the must limit base runners. If these two thingas are true, then a pitcher will have high strike oput rates, low walk rates, and low HR rates (the 3 true outcomes) plus the will be have great xwoba metrics! xWOBA is a predicitive stat based on stat cast data and will predict the future of hitters getting on base aganst the pitcher. So this is how to an swer question #1 of who are the best pitchers, but if I can combine their dollars won and lost per start, we can see if these pitchers are actually who we should be wagering on.

The next chart lists starting pitchers in order of xwoba. The lowest result is the best. The MLB xwoba avg is .329. This list of the best pitchers has .305 ad the highest so these are very good pitchers. It also contains k/9, bb/9, and hr/9. The next to last column is the dollars won or lost by wgaering on this pitcher.

It is fair to say by reviewing the wagering results, the best pitchers in the game are NOT always the best wagers to make! There are 24 pitchers listed above and 10 of them are loisng propositions. However, these ARE the right pitchers to wager unders!

BASE RUNS

What is base runs? Base runs (BsR) is a baseball statistic invented by sabermetrician David Smyth to estimate the number of runs a team “should have” scored given their component offensive statistics, as well as the number of runs a hitter or pitcher creates or allows. We need to understand value as it relates to team strength. A won/loss record does not always indicate where to find the value. Base Runs standings and Pythagorean standings are similar and will allow us to find the unforeseen value in teams. We will also see the overvalued teams based on their record. Let’s look at the AL East.

05/15

The column on the far right is Base Runs. The column on the far left is the actual record. The NYY are 24-9 actual record. Base Runs has them at 22-11. The +2 indicates NYY has won 2 games more than they should have based on their component offense stats, plus what the pitchers have allowed. We can see TB (+3) should be at 17 wins so they are 3 games better than they should be. BOS, on the other hand, is (-3) so they have lost 3 games more than they should have. I found the Base Runs standings in this division interesting. Yes, as the actual records suggest, NYY has a big lead. However, everyone else should be at 16 or 17 wins! This means there is value in teams like BOS and BAL plus too much value in teams like TB and TOR.

Here are the rest of the standings.

AL Standings 05/15
NL Standings 05/15

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