NOTES: This new week of teams looks to have created fewer margins for most of the 1st games. The largest variances are 30 basis points LAD, 27 basis points DET, and 20 basis points ARI. These are 1 favorite (LAD), not enough odds, and 2 favorites getting too many odds.
Keep an eye of the pitching matchups as late night they are not all accurate. CHC Davies may not go and TB/NYY many places do not list any pitchers yet. There should be competitive games for the weekend! STL/PHI, TB/NYY, SF/MIA, CHW/BOS, CLE/CIN, MIN/LAA, and LAD/SD ALL should be great.
LAD/SD leads the weekend with as they are the two highest projected win total teams. Interesting to see SD start the series with an “opener” in Weathers. LAD will still be without Bellinger, plus they rested both Betts and Seager on Thursday.
NOTES: As I have been discussing in here, BOS Red Sox are a team to be betting on! Even on a 9 game win streak they are getting little understanding from the books about how good they are. My model has them with 33 basis points edge again! There are two things here, A don’t ever try to predict when a streak will end and B if you haven’t been on them, this spot may not be the best to get on them.
There is 1 pitcher who is well above the rest in MLB and he throws today. Jacob DeGrom projected WAR is 8.2! The next two are Gerrit Cole 6.5 and Shane Bieber 6.1. His dominance should be reflected higher in the odds. However, betting on him is not a great proposition unless playing totals under. Mets rarely score runs when he pitches. Regardless, my model shows -355!
My model shows value on MIA and Rogers. MIA is a scrappy team too making them hard to put away. The variance is 28 basis points. Keep an eye on the SEA games. My model likely will show value on them vs BAL once pitchers are confirmed.
What a struggle for me to start the season. It is a long haul though and now pitchers will be getting their 3rd starts. After that going into their 4th starts and the rest of the season, the data become much more reliable and more can be used. I need a good run to get get caught up here.
Well, I must say that the lines are pretty good. If you play where the variances are, you’ll have more winners than losers. I trait I should be going for! Still, cold start running!
NOTES: The largest variance is TB over TEX. I tend to omit the largest variance and work down from there. The concept is that my model just might be off somewhere so avoid it. Yet, it is worth noting the Bookmakers still value TB like a power and they are not the same team as the one winning the AL last season. Should come into play in other series.
BOS continues to show value. Same as yesterday when the game was canceled. BOS 38 basis points edge with Eovaldi. This is an undervalued team by the books and we should capitalize now while their numbers are still low! ATL is showing a bigger favorite over MIA than the book says. Still large odds of -220 and one I am not tempted to take. The premise though should be to play any and all EV+ edges we can. I play the ones that fit into the bankroll strategy I have chosen which eliminates large odd favorites. LAD fits into this spot as well.
Notes; there are several games I am not sure who is pitching or even if there will be a game. BOS/MIN game cancelled tonight not sure about it’s status for tomorrow. SEA/BAL was rained out and scheduled for doubleheader but not sure the pitching matchups are finalized. PHI/NYM same as SEA/BAL. Also looks like CHC/MIL is cancelled for Tuesday. I will update once things shake out.
I was disappointed that there were rain outs as I prioritized my odds over the sportsbook, plus charted several others. Found WSH, LAA and MIA as nice looks!
Notes for tomorrow’s games; If BOS plays, they are not getting enough respect from Bookmaker. My line shows MIN -112 yet Bookmaker shows -150! Good value on BOS! NYY are a DOG! My number says “pick’em”. TB looks like it is too high for Bookmaker. I think this will be something to keep an eye on as it appears this might be a trend. Projected standings have TB 4th in the division! Another one is WSH which is a DOG when my model says they should be favorites! CIN Castillo is in the same spot! DOG to SF and Gausman! We have first -300> line. LAD Bauer over COL Senzatela -345.
It has been the coldest start to a season I have ever had. No excuses. Just have to forge through it. Reminds of two things. #1Tough times will pass leaving a tough person there and #2 Scared Money Don’t Make No Money. Just means that things are cyclical and good times will come, and to keep playing not backing off as to leave winners on the table.
Notes: As my betting season has been dismal to start off, the Webbie Lines are doing great!
Today’s theme…..Overrated Favorites or Under valued dogs!
BOS is not getting respect. My model has MIN -108, yet Bookmaker opened them up at -150. The variance is 42 basis points or 8.68% EV+ Edge! Another is TB. Glasnow is a great pitcher and is listed as -230 at Bookmaker. My model says they should be -185, not -230 which is 45 basis points variance. Other teams in this spot are MIA, WSH, DET, and OAK. These are all teams that my model suggests the favorite is too high making these teams good value! Consider the teams listed as either underdog with EV+ edges or teams that are not getting as much respect as maybe they should.
Notes: There are 3 games where my model has the WRONG team favored! These are LAA @TOR, MIL @ STL, and COL @ SF. MIL is showing the best value of these games as their basis points margin is 37 or 8.81% EV+ Edge. I am surprised at TOR Roark is favored over LAA as well! These are two games on my radar for Sunday.
Bookmaker really likes MIN more than my model. MIN is -185 and my model says -140. The variance is a basis points edge of 8.33% to SEA. I won with MIN Shoemaker already but need to wager on him when his spots are undervalued.
Bookmaker is either overvaluing CLE or undervaluing DET as the line is-185 and my model sees it as -148. CLE can pitch and has a great history against DET, but Allen should likely not be a near -200 fav against anyone. I also still see value in KC and Mike Minor. CHW are -140 @ Bookmaker. My model is -123 giving value to KC as a dog.