The season shows that the home field is not so friendly right now. Look at the chart below regarding teams and their away records as of today. It shows 17 of the 30 teams have at least a .500 record and 22 are within 1 game of being .500 on the road. MIL, CLE, and BOS are a combined 30-8 when they play away from home!
Usually, these teams will be underdogs too, so betting on the away team has been profitable. The green ROIs in this chart outweigh the red and it’s not even close!
The run line comes into play roughly 28% of the time. There are 15 games per night when all the teams play, so there will be 4 one-run games. These games might be easy to identify when there are two dominant pitchers for example. My contention is not to be afraid of the run line and use it more often. I played a game recently where The Mets were -142 -1.5 and -135 on the money line. I played the Run Line and the Mets won 9-1! I made great value there. It is also getting to a point where certain teams can’t score any runs. These teams right now are the White Sox, Rockies, Cardinals, and Pirates. Playing the run line against these teams is a good idea. It is better to monitor these teams’ offensive output weekly. Every team will have its issues, you can be more prepared to get maximum value from betting against them.
I made two wagers today that ended in ties or for sports betting, they pushed. The bets were TEX first five innings -105 and CLE@BOS Under 9 runs. TEX had scored 4 runs by the second inning so all is great. In many cases, that is enough to win the wager already. However, DET rallied in the 2nd to score three runs. However, DET rallied and scored 4 in the bottom of the second inning to tie the game. Oh, no. TEX scored 2 more in the third inning and one more in the fourth to lead 7-4 and all is right with the world again. DET scored 3 more runs in the fourth inning to tie the game at 7 a piece. Two runs came on a flyball misjudged by the TE centerfielder and DET had two outs. All he had to do was catch the ball and the inning was over, I won the bet. I attached the play below. The following batter also got a hit which drove in the third run and snatched victory away! I did not lose the bet though as it was a tie 7-7, but it feels like I did.
In the CLE/BOS game, the score needs to be under 9 runs but at 9 runs I tie. The score is 2-1 CLE after four innings and all is good. BOS makes an error in the fifth inning as the leadoff batter for CLE gets to second base. The next batter makes flies out and then moves to third base. A walk then happens so there are now runners on first and third with one out (there should be two outs and only the guy on first). A base hit drives in the run from third and we have runners on 1st and second and a 3-1 score. The pitch hits the next batter to load up the bases with only one out. There is a ground that scored the runner on third base to make the score 4-1 and then a ground out to end the inning. The score is 4-1 not in the fifth inning. CLE scores another run in the sixth inning to go ahead 5-1. BOS makes two quick outs in their half of the sixth, then gets a single. CLE makes a pitching change. The next BOS batter singles. There are runners on second and first with two outs in a 5-1 game. The next batter hits a triple to score both runners and the game is now 5-3 and tending over! The next BOS batter singles to score the guy on third and the game is 5-4. There is no way we get this to have zero runs for the remainder of the game. Yet, that is exactly what happened. The game ended 5-4 and tied/pushed on under 9 runs. I feel like I won that one!
The moral of this story is that sweats in baseball betting are brutal. You have to take solace that you are making good bets and the outcomes will take care of themselves throughout thousands of bets. Every push does not feel the same nor was it achieved the same. The advice is to be callous towards these kinds of events. A learned habit is celebrating your wins because they don’t come easy and are worth letting some emotion go. Don’t harbor losses, move on to the next betting opportunity!
The paid or premium section of http://www.MLB-Daily.com has many daily features. These are designed to guide a new baseball bettor in the right direction for making quality bets. Whether you handicap the games, just want to be shown the process, or just follow my bets, the choice is there for you to make. The goal is to show you the way and allow you to make your choices. The daily features are WEBBIE ODDS, WEBBIE EV+ TOOL, Weather Report, Pitcher Report, Offense / Cluster Report, and Bullpen Ranks. A Score Predictor will be added in a couple of days as more data is coming in and it will work for all the games. You receive the best in the industry-originated odds, then apply to a tool to show the EV+ for every game! You receive the most updated weather reports. You receive proprietary Pitching information that removes unnecessary data only to provide the most important data! You receive proprietary offensive clustering. You receive bullpen ranks with bullpen usage issues where applicable. Nothing is not provided to make quality bets daily. Here are some samples from today. The price of this information is $150.00 for the entire season. I hope you will support the website and become a member. see this link:
Daily the WEBBIE EV+ TOOL is posted in the premium content. It will show where there is an expected value positive based on WEBBIE ODDS. Here is today’s version!
Another element that is a daily feature is the PITCHER REPORT. There is detailed data regarding the performance of pitchers and what to expect from them today. It is also given in the premium section. Here is today’s version.
A team’s offense is also part of the daily information! It is broken down into runs per game, and player clusters! Great tool. Here is today’s version.
There is a weather report, a bullpen report, and soon to come, a score predictor (more data needed). The score predictor provides a F5 score as well as the full game.
Thank you for your time and I hope to see you as a member!
I will LIVE with Jeff on X (Twitter) and YouTube today at noon talking day baseball. A deep dive into one game today you will like. I will take questions too.
I have several posts around MLB wagers people make or suggest are good so others should be wagering them too. MLB betting is NOT like spread wagering in the NBA or other spots. There are more moneyline wagers made, thus the odds are not -110 many times. Your bankroll is everything so protect it, but use it to grow. This is a balancing act over 7 months of grinding out wagers for baseball. The phrase “not too tight, not too loose” fits well.
Regarding these posts, wagers are posted as good plays at -180, -185, and more and these are coming from the likes of Sean Zerillo a handicapper at several social sites. I’ve seen others post LAD -400 in money line parlays (like Keith at PickWise). They do this daily with the large money line favorite spreads. I see wagers where people think there is value to playing boosts. If you haven’t done the math, these boosts are still bad so stay away! Betting baseball is about the discipline of never giving away a bet! Pretend you are walking up to the betting window to make your bet. At this point, most of us use our apps so at least pretend. You must take out your hard-earned cash dollars and give it to the person in the window. Now give over your money. How confident are you in doing that? Look, have conviction and purpose, or don’t do it!
For every loss of -140, you need at minimum two winners to overcome the blow to your account. It makes life difficult to get ahead, so don’t just throw wagers out there because someone said to. Vet out the thought process behind the bet. Be comfortable in your conviction and confidence in handing your money to wager. Protect your bankroll from unnecessary risk. Use it to gain profits from making good bets. It is ok to have an agenda, that becomes a plan, which then gets executed. It’s not ok to just read a post and not protect your bankroll, because those bets are not of good quality and it is shocking how these guys get to work for businesses that allow that behavior.
First, let’s define the closing line value or CLV. Closing line value refers to the value of a bet relative to where the line closes. When you make a bet, you will have whatever line you were given when you made that bet, however, the market still moves right until the game begins. The line at the beginning of the game is the closing line. There could be differences in those lines and the goal is to have your bet made at better odds than the closing line creating closing line value. Ideally, the better you are at beating the closing line, the more apt you are at winning bets. Old-school guys will virtually swear by this and all the CLV value they can get. There is an art to this. To be good at this, you should be able to predict the market moving and bet according to those predicted moves to gain an edge over those who paid more. However, does this have anything to do with winning your bet? The answer is no. It helps maintain guard rails to your bankroll more than it helps to win a bet. I have heard, I am sure you have to, the people that say “Yeah I lost my bet, but I had great CLV meaning I made a good bet”. CLV does not mean anything related to making a good bet! It is a mask and excuse to provide some consoling reasoning as to why the best lost and still sound smart.
Most people are line shoppers, creating value by betting from one book versus another. CLV is important to them and that is reasonable as a goal. They would be better served to gauge the value in the odds between the books and bet that (called extra value added or EV+). The movement to the closing line is relatively meaningless. These “line shoppers” have no choice but to bet this way as they don’t create their numbers or handicap the game. You have heard them. They are the ones that say “I bet numbers, not teams”. This is where CLV dies! It doesn’t matter if you had the largest margin in the closing odds possible if your bet doesn’t win! The only true benefit of CLV is that you are always paying the least to make your best, thus you are not giving away bankroll when you lose a bet. This is a great concept, but you should always pay the least amount possible for any bet you make. If you are an originator of odds, CLV means extremely little. As earlier stated, always pay the least as possible, but if a line moves, it needs to be compared to your numbers. It could move towards or away from them meaning completely different things to the originator.
When the market moves towards your numbers, you have less value than before. An example would be if you had SF -130 and the opening number was -145; then the market moved to -135. At the opening, there was 15 cents value. After the move, there is only 05 cents. The market will move away from your numbers creating more value to your odds. A line line shopper won’t see this as value. They can’t because all they see is the betting board. As an originator, I prefer the market to give me better value so I want it to move away from my numbers! If SF -145 moved to -120, your odds were -130 making a 10-cent value. Most line shoppers will want to follow the moves, not go against them, thus there is no way for them to see any value.
So when I look at CLV, I think of guard rails for bankroll. When I look at EV+, I think of profits and good bet-making. The importance of being an originator can not be overlooked. There are advantages to seeing so many opportunities that become good bets because they have extra value with positive expectations versus the bookmaker’s odds. There is no need to stress CLV. Only strive to have EV+ value with every bet you make. I have learned to make only good bets and CLV will not be something you will ever hear me complaining about or strive for.
This week I get to use most of my data. The Score Predictor, Strike-out prop predictor, and first 5-inning score predictor start working! I also get to use current data! Let’s see where this goes from here! If you have considered getting a membership, now is a great time! Only $150 for the entire season!
I won three bets yesterday due to the process which created the ability to find the right wagers. I used team wins for pitchers and bullpen availability to get these wins! Let’s look at these.
What are team wins for pitchers? When a starting pitcher makes a start, does his team win or lose that game? This is it. Wins and losses by a pitcher do not matter, as those things are very arbitrary, so we don’t even bother using that stat. However, when we make a wager, we are betting on the team to win, so team wins and losses in the starts a pitcher makes are very important. PHI Zack Wheeler makes a perfect case for this. His 2023 season saw him make 32 starts. He posted a 13-6 record! However, in the games he started, the Phillies went only 19-13! It means his team is more apt to lose games than win games. Using this information in yesterday’s game against PIT. I bet PHI Wheeler RL F5 innings, not the entire game. PHI scratched across 2 runs and on the bet. In the 6th inning, PIT hit a grand slam home run to take a 5-2 lead and never looked back to win that game. A pitcher like Spencer Strider is where we want to be. He made 32 starts last season, like Wheeler did. However, the Braves were 26-6 in his starts! It is essential to know what information to look at. I could have made a mistake making a full-game bet, but I won and didn’t lose one because I knew this information!
I bet on the CIN RL -1.5 against CHW and SD ML +130 against LAD yesterday. The reasoning was that CHW had the 27th-ranked bullpen and a starter for whom CIN could put up runs. CIN ended up with 11 runs, getting 5 against the starter and 6 more off the bullpen. However, the SD game was a little different because I used the availability of the Dodger’s bullpen pitchers. Every bullpen has its best guys (the A group) and the lesser guys (the B group). Due to pitch usage from the last day’s game, the Dodgers did not have their A group available. My handicap showed Paxton as hittable and put guys on base via the walk, meaning SD would have the reasonable opportunity throughout the game to score runs. SD had an edge with their starting pitcher, and their bullpen was available. As it went, LAD hit a HR off Darvish to lead 3-1. However, Paxton walked guys, and the bullpen allowed the game to get tied 3-3. Then the LAD bullpen struggled, allowing 3 more runs, and won the game 6-3. SD could have easily scored more runs as they didn’t capitalize on all those walks as they could have, but 6 was enough for me to get the win.
The purpose is to show that good information will lead to good results. It is crucial to determine what is essential and what is not. Let’s work on this together! Sign up with me to share these daily events as they occur! Use the link below. I assure you that you will gain valuable information about betting and betting on baseball!
