2021 and Regression of 2020

2020 was only a 2 month season so we must realize there were some oddities of great performances. These performances above a player’s standard season indicate a regression is ripe. The comparison of a complete 162 game season with 6 months is much more truthful than the 2 month snippet of a season we had last year. A perfect example of this is AL MVP Jose Abreu. He earned 2.6 WAR (8th in MLB) with a .411 wOBA and 166 wRC+. He ranked 3rd in WAR, 3rd in wOBA, and 2nd wRC+ in the American League. However, his .411 wOBA and 166 wRC+ are tied for his career best season. It happened in 2014 which was his first season in MLB. The projections for 2021 suggest he is likely to have a “normal” season which is dramatically different form his MVP season last year. Keep in mind he will be 34 years old this season. He is projected with 1.6 WAR, .342 wOBA, and 115 wRC+. He is 7th in projected WAR on his own team for 2021! It is crucial to understand the value of a 2 month season against a full season. Therefore, knowing what performance is expected will not come as a surprise and one can plan accordingly regarding future betting markets or DFS. In this case of the White Sox, look for a progression form Eloy Jimenez. This will the 3rd season for this 24 year old. The productivity lost from Abreu will be picked up by Jimenez. He projects 3.3 WAR, .366 wOBA, and 131 wRC+. His single best WAR season is 1.8 WAR. He projects with 38 HRs and 107 RBI.

The idea here is to look at last season under scrutiny. We need to dig a little deeper to find truths and variances. We can wager on that.

Published by webbie20

I am an experienced sports gambler who allows access to my strategies, analysis, and data. Some of what I do is FREE for all, yet others will pay a small amount to access everything. I utilize the website (https://mlb-daily.com/) and a Telegram page to provide my thoughts, data, and picks.

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