The Angels play in the AL West division which the OAK A’s won in 2020. In fact, the Angels finished 4th in the division last year even behind the SEA Mariners. Their record was 26-34 and were 10 games back. However, their play was much better than this record and the true gap is NOT that wide. Indeed, I can make a case where they should have been only 1 game back and should have been a playoff team!
Using BaseRuns as the “true” measure of the team performance, the record for the Angels was 31-29. The A’s was 32-28. BaseRuns is vital as it indicates a team’s record based off of offense and defense performance. It indicates what should have happened against what did happen based off performance. Whether there was a leadership issue with Joe Maddon, bullpen collapses, or just bad luck, being able to identify the true worth of a team helps lead to identifying opportunities in the betting market.
The Angels are an ACE starting pitcher away from being the best team in the AL West. OAK leads the West in starting pitcher WAR 13.0 and LAA 12.0 projections. HOU leads in offense by a wider margin, but is last of the three in starting pitching. If HOU and OAK are the front runners with betting lines of OAK +110 and HOU +175 for the division, then LAA at +375 is already a good value in the market. The projected wins for HOU is 89 and for LAA is 86; only 3 games variance (OAK 84). Angels project a 2nd place finish yet the market line is not reflective of this (having them third) creating value to them now. What if we could get Trevor Bauer?
Bauer would become the best starter in the division the day he signs! His projection of 3.8 WAR makes up the 3 games variance behind the Astros. I like that it would slot Heaney, Bundy and Quintana properly behind him. An area of concern for this team a season ago would become the reason why they can win one season later! Bauer would be a favorite over any other pitcher in the division! HOU best pitchers are Framber Valdez and an aging Zach Greinke. OAK best pitchers are Jesus Luzardo and Frankie Montas. Really, all those pitchers would be no guarantee of being favorites over Heaney or Bundy or at least they would be small favorites.
Get out in front of this now! The Angels will do something with the remaining off season to address this issue. They are better than they are perceived to be. If you wager today, you get best number. Wagering later, will put you behind the sharpest plays. Even if there is zero additions, the value is proper. Make your bet today! I just got Angles +380 at Bookmaker!