On this day 02/09/2021, PECOTA released its first run of projected standings. FanGraphs has already had theirs out for some time. This is an indication of the coming season win totals from the sportsbooks across the country. Analysis should be done right away so the opportunities to get the best season win lines can be had.
Looking at them, for the American League, both models have the same division winners. AL East NYY, AL Central MIN, and AL West HOU. The using PECOTA the largest division winner is the NYY and the tightest is the MIN., and would have TB and LAA as the Wild Card teams. FanGraphs like NYY as the best team as well, but has TOR and BOS as the Wild Card teams.
It is interesting to see that neither liked the emerging CHW to over take MIN. PECOTA doesn’t even think CHW will surpass CLE. Fangraphs likes BOS not TB. PECOTA likes TB not BOS. My opinion is NYY are the best in the American League. Their depth is not equaled from any team. I like LAA in the AL West. My opinion last year has carried over into this year of the Astros. Until they can prove they can hit, they are the most overrated team in the AL. I had OAK last year and think LAA has done enough to surpass both OAK and HOU this season.
The National League has alignment in all three divisions as well. The NL East NYM, NL Central MIL, and NL West LAD. PECOTA has SD and CHC as the Wild Card teams, while Fangraphs has SD and ATL. Both models like LAD as the best team with NYM and SD the next tier below. PECOTA thinks ATL falls to 4th in the East with PHI moving past them. Neither model likes STL enough (Arenado signing) to move past MIL or even make the playoffs. It is interesting to see how the CHC are viewed. PECOTA thinks they are an 85 win team and Fangraphs thinks they are below .500 team. I can’t see them as good as STL so I will side with Fangraphs.
Peruse through the projections and fins some stuff that surprises you. Get clear in your head where you think the models are right or wrong, then bet accordingly.