As a handicapper, the worst part of any season is the start. More often than not; experience, good fortune, and carryover data from the prior year will get you through. This season is my worst start ever. The previous season may have affected my models more than anticipated. I own my results and stand by my methods. Handicappers use data to develop models and for opinions. Whether the model runs good or bad, the opinion is the handicappers alone.
Each week goes by and games become records. These records then become data, then the model gets better. For me, there are several turning points to start a season. The first one comes when I can use techniques for starting pitchers establishing their mean average performance to start the year. This process starts when a pitcher makes his 2nd start. It can carry into the 4th start but is a current viable resource for the current season.
Another is when we get a week’s worth of hitting results. I rarely look at individual stats for players and use team data as much as possible, Batting data starts to become relevant after a week worth of numbers. Timeframes are important. Getting enough data but current data is tricky. My models use advanced metrics from various timeframes with hitting results quickly approaching.
Other thresholds will include bullpen data, further starting pitcher data, with team trend and umpire trend data following. MLB is a long daily grind. Of course, winning helps get through the days nicely. However, I don’t win every day nor every week. I would like to feel bad for losing streaks but I have to shrug them off. As long as I am not off process or plan, which I can make adjustments to, then the mindset is more important. Staying confident while losing is a unique trait yet one that is necessary to win long term. I work on this months ahead of the season. I write preview guides and betting guides. The results come from staying to your plan and not overreacting to situations that are not going your way.
I win a lot and can lose a lot. It is all part of the journey that makes for a betting season. I rehash my wagers, strategies, and process. Learn to make adjustments where necessary. Whether winning or losing, my emotions are not far apart. This is business for me. I don’t do this to lose and there are not many or any that put in the work as I do. Currently, I could throw darts at a schedule of games and win more than I have for the first several days. Not a good spot or look, but the good news is coming. Results tend to be cyclical so although not fun, getting the bad ones out of the way leads to getting more good ones.
Thanks for following along. Hope to get on track soon. Be ready to ride hot as much as hate to be cold.