New match ups and series on Monday. Interesting in my mid will be STL/MIA, NYM/PHI, MIL/CHC, and HOU/LAA. New York Mets will play their 1st game Monday and have favorable opening pitching matchup. DeGrom opens for NYM because they haven’t been able to play due the WSH Covid issues. He gets to face the PHI #4 in Matt Moore and the line reflects it. PHI off sweep of ATL will now get NYM (tough open for them).
Notes: My numbers showed CLE in pick’em scenario with KC. I like KC and their starter in this game but I did take note that CLE was at least 50-50 with my model. MIL is a standout variance. Bookmaker has CHC -120 and my model has MIL -119. CHC is off a 2-1 series vs PIT which most team would be and MIL is off 1-2 series with MIN. Quality of pitching seen in that series was very high. Another one I had a reaction too was LAA . Line opened at -125 but my model suggests it should be -106. HOU off a 4 game sweep of OAK and scoring a ton of runs. LAA off a hard fought series with CHW. I expected Quintana to be a value, but it is opposite. Need to look into those situations.