Reviewing the lines for 04/06, these are my notes.
My model suggests the NY Mets are better than the books think they are. This primarily comes from the FanGraphs projected win percentage. I am not all in on the model just yet. The Mets will have only played one game thus far. I do not believe they are winning the NL East by the margins Fangraphs indicates, thus I am expecting an adjustment that I will have to make. However, those adjustments do not happen this early. Need to let things play out some, but be cautious with my line regarding the Mets.
NYY Cole is -300 yet my model says -400! The value there but I am never paying those prices. SD showing value with Darvish. 54 basis points. Sanchez is that Aaron Sanchez thought to be washed a year or two ago. Again a large favorite that I have no interest in paying the price to get. I thought the TB line came out interesting. Glasnow is -145 with books and the model says -130 showing 15 basis points of value to BOS.
MIL showing as a Webbie Favorite and an underdog at the books. That is 25 basis points of value or a 5.56% EV+ edge. An easy way to get EV+ edge very close to the accurate number is to use a 2.25% EV+ edge for every 10 basis points of variance. This will give you some feel for what you see if I don’t comment on something. MIA is not getting in respect from the books showing a dog with Alcantara throwing against STL Gant. TOR only -125 against TEX who is competing for the worst team in MLB when my model suggests -142.
When analyzing the lines, make sure to support your thoughts, theories, and analysis. Don’t just blindly wager. There may be something that is creating the variances the models don’t pick up. Research to support your synopsis then fire away!