Notes: Again my model REALLY loves the Mets. DeGrom -430! The Bookmaker line is -275. I need to keep an eye on this and adjust soon. Interesting to see my model suggesting there are multiple overpriced favorites. Those over pride favorites are MIN, CHW, SF, HOU, CLE, CHC, and ATL. The one that sticks out is CHW. This is Cease vs Minor. The Bookmaker line is -150 and mine is -108. Oddsmakers not respecting KC in this one so this needs a deeper look. The same can be said for DET. Skubal is a better pitcher than Civale and CLE offense is not great, so a CLE -170 is too high!
My model also shows value in underpriced favorites. These are BOS and SD. BOS will fit the margins I look for regarding wagering opportunities as they will likely be less than -150 based on being -135 now. My model suggests they should be -162! There is value there. I was surprised to see TOR be a favorite over LAA. Matz threw well first time out and Quintana did not. TOR also has some Covid restricted players so they are shorthanded with their star players.
As with any line value comparisons, make sure to do your homework. Don’t miss the offensive side of the game either. Looking at the teams atop the best offenses list, they are winning!
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