Webbie Odds for 04/11 plus notes

Notes: There are 3 games where my model has the WRONG team favored! These are LAA @TOR, MIL @ STL, and COL @ SF. MIL is showing the best value of these games as their basis points margin is 37 or 8.81% EV+ Edge. I am surprised at TOR Roark is favored over LAA as well! These are two games on my radar for Sunday.

Fanatics

Bookmaker really likes MIN more than my model. MIN is -185 and my model says -140. The variance is a basis points edge of 8.33% to SEA. I won with MIN Shoemaker already but need to wager on him when his spots are undervalued.

Bookmaker is either overvaluing CLE or undervaluing DET as the line is-185 and my model sees it as -148. CLE can pitch and has a great history against DET, but Allen should likely not be a near -200 fav against anyone. I also still see value in KC and Mike Minor. CHW are -140 @ Bookmaker. My model is -123 giving value to KC as a dog.

Leave a Reply

%d bloggers like this: