Notes: As my betting season has been dismal to start off, the Webbie Lines are doing great!
Today’s theme…..Overrated Favorites or Under valued dogs!
BOS is not getting respect. My model has MIN -108, yet Bookmaker opened them up at -150. The variance is 42 basis points or 8.68% EV+ Edge! Another is TB. Glasnow is a great pitcher and is listed as -230 at Bookmaker. My model says they should be -185, not -230 which is 45 basis points variance. Other teams in this spot are MIA, WSH, DET, and OAK. These are all teams that my model suggests the favorite is too high making these teams good value! Consider the teams listed as either underdog with EV+ edges or teams that are not getting as much respect as maybe they should.