NOTES: As I have been discussing in here, BOS Red Sox are a team to be betting on! Even on a 9 game win streak they are getting little understanding from the books about how good they are. My model has them with 33 basis points edge again! There are two things here, A don’t ever try to predict when a streak will end and B if you haven’t been on them, this spot may not be the best to get on them.
There is 1 pitcher who is well above the rest in MLB and he throws today. Jacob DeGrom projected WAR is 8.2! The next two are Gerrit Cole 6.5 and Shane Bieber 6.1. His dominance should be reflected higher in the odds. However, betting on him is not a great proposition unless playing totals under. Mets rarely score runs when he pitches. Regardless, my model shows -355!
My model shows value on MIA and Rogers. MIA is a scrappy team too making them hard to put away. The variance is 28 basis points. Keep an eye on the SEA games. My model likely will show value on them vs BAL once pitchers are confirmed.