WEBBIE ODDS AND NOTES FOR 04/29

NOTES: NOTICE! I have adjusted the HOME team advantage UP. I adjusted the model down last season based on no fans in the stands. I forgot to adjust the model back to its correct home-field edge for this season and now that has been corrected.

Fanatics

I am not sure what is going in in the CHW Rodon game. Yesterday the line was -205 and today it is -150? I left it off the “open line” as I thought it might be a mistake. Anyway, if it is -150, then there are built-in 50 basis points of edge to CHW! My model also suggests that CHW is -242 for another 37 points (242-205), so backing CHW seems like a no-brainer here.

Another interesting case is the LAD Trevor Bauer today. He is an away FAV -150. He is a top-tier starter only behind a select few starters in MLB. He will be facing Eric Lauer who is a journeyman type. He was a starter for SDP in 2019 but only made 2 starts in 2020. He is a fill-in guy at best. The line is short at LAD -150!

The Rays are starting another of their BIG armed prospects today in McClanahan. He is listed as a small home DOG. Anytime the batters are getting their first look at a pitcher, the edge goes to the pitcher. OAK Bassitt has only 2 runs in each of his last 3 starts. This could end up being a tight low scoring game.

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