NOTES: When new series start, it is very interesting to see how my odds stack up. Today I see tons of variance. ALL but one game are 20 basis points of variance today! It does not mean everything is a play as there are many steep lines.
My model says CIN is -117 today and the bookmaker has it -140 which puts line value on SFG. Looking deeper, this is a stay away for me. SFG Webb last time out was very good and an outlier to the good side. He should not expect to pitch as well today. I do not like backing pitchers whose regression to the mean is strong to the down side.
My model again favors NYM! I might have had to look here, but NYM Walker is in a regression spot, and Conforto will not be in the lineup. However, even with that, the line for ATL has ballooned up to -150! My model suggests NYM are the favorite! Even though NYM have lost 2 straight, they are still 7-3 L10! ATL is 5-5 L10. I can’t see how this line should be this high.
My model like the CHC at -117 and the line is -150 generating value on WSH. Alzolay more dominant than Lester. Balls in play will favor CHC. Lester vs CHC could be a motivation for him, but I can’t see CHC as the wrong side here. However, the price is too high for me to support them.
My model likes CHW -130 and the bookmaker likes it as -105 (or pick’em). MIN is starting a lefty in Happ. CHW are the #1 offense vs LHP. I like this one.
NYY, LAD, SDP, and SEA are ALL very high favorites. My model suggests not high enough! The NYY are going to be close to -300 on the road! The smallest of these favorites is SEA at -170!