NOTES: Today’s slate of games only has 8 on the docket. All the games are new series except the last one between TBR/TOR. TOR will be playing their last home game in Dunedin, FL as they move into their new home site in Buffalo, NY.
My model suggests that PHI should be a pick’em with MIA, not a dog. This is the only game where the model chooses a dog to be a favorite.
Again, the NYM are substantial favorites according to my model when they are really modest favorites. It has them -203 vs COL when the books have it -135. There are 68 basis points of variance there. PHI has a 31 basis point variance against MIA. MIA is a -127 FAV and the model says pick’em or -105/-105. There are no other games above 20 basis points of variance today.