The Westgate Superbook has released their MLB season win totals. I have been working on my list so there are some plays to be made here. Here are their totals. Let’s see where this goes.
My favorite wager here is MIA OVER 73.5 wins. Their blended Pythagorean and Base Runs win total from last year is 77.5 wins. Their pitching is another year more experienced so Sandy Alcantara, Trevor Rogers, and Pablo Lopez will be better. They get Sixto Sanchez back for the 2nd half of the season so they stack up well on the mound. Their offense sure needs help, but they have supported it. They brought in Avisail Garcia and just signed Jorge Soler! Jazz Chisholm is a young developing star. Yes, I know they play in the division with ATL, NYM, and PHI but did you know they held their own against those teams last year? Against ATL they were 8-11, against NYM they were 9-10, and against PHI they were 10-9. They had a terrible go of it in interleague play as they were 3-17 against the AL. I like this team to be better than LY, and even if they can’t pick anymore wins than then, it will still be enough to go OVER 73.5.
I like TOR to go OVER 92.5 wins. Their blended Pythagorean and Base Runs win total from last year was 98 wins! This is anear 100 win team and all they did was get better offensively (Matt Chapman) and get deeper starting pitching (Kevin Gausman and Yusei Kikuchi) and added a few bullpen arms. TB has yet to do anything to get better, and NYY is a little better too but were further behind. They will get George Springer and Jose Berrios for a full season as well. Another season for developing star pitcher Alek Manoah. This team wins the East and will play for the pennant!
I like DET to go UNDER 78.5 wins. Their blended Pythagorean and Base Runs win total from last year was 74 wins. They play in a top-heavy division where the White Sox are the cream of the crop. I think MIN is the 2nd best team in the division and they made significant improvements (Alex Correa) which then means DET, CLE, and KC will battle for 3rd thru 5th. These three teams should end up only being a few games apart from one another. There is “hype” around this team too. Manager AJ Hinch did a fabulous job last season as DET finished the 2nd half of the season over .500! The carryover is expected for this team now. They did sign Javier Baez and get a full season of prospect Spencer Torkelson. They brought over Eduardo Rodriguez from BOS. This team still lacks consistent offense, and they have a shaky bullpen. Their starters (Mize, Skubal, and Manning) are young and just not ace material. They need more pieces and I think they fall short of 78.5 wins.
I like SEA to go UNDER 84.5 wins. Their blended Pythagorean and Base Runs win total from last year was 75 wins. This team actually won 90 games, but should have only won 75! They will need a 10 game improvement to achieve that. They brought in Jesse Winker, Eugenio Suarez, and Adam Frazier to help the offense. This team needs power bats and much fewer strikeouts (only BAL was worse last year). They have young stars on the rise Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez, but I think they are at least one more year away from being the dynamite this team needs. They did bring in Robbie Ray to be the ace. He had a super season last year (a career year) but he projects with his average season. Their staff has many “soft tossers” that need to “be on” or they get lit up. I think this is a team developing quickly but I don’t believe that get over 84.5 wins.
My last selection is TB to go UNDER 91.5 wins. Their blended Pythagorean and Base Runs win total from last year was 100 wins. This is an excellent team. I say team because they are greater than the sum of their parts. They work so well together. They played well offensively scoring the 2nd most runs in the AL. They are known for pitching and defense, but their offense carried them. They mix and match as they have many platoon scenarios. They play in the division with TOR and NYY so they will need to score again in 2022. As I write this, they are looking to move Austin Meadows (big power and RBI guy). They are going to need Wander Franco to be the special player he is supposed to be right away. He needs to carry a large part of the run production for this team. They lost Tyler Glasnow late last season (Aug) and he will miss this entire season. They signed Carey Kluber, are lacking in the starting pitching role. I feel like they are regressing this year unless they can find more offense or more starting pitching. As NYY and TOR both got better, TB has not improved and now has been surpassed. I don’t think they win 91.5 games but I do think they make the playoffs as a Wild Card team.
My official sheet looks like this: