I set the odds about one week ago so now with one until opening day, I thought I should revisit the odds. A couple of things have changed. First, we have some definite starting pitchers now. The list of “named” opening day starters are EOVALDI, BURNES, DEGROM, RYAN, BIEBER, GREINKE, WAINWRIGHT, MAHLE, FRIED, VALDEZ, OHTANI, DARVISH for Thursday, April 7th. The confirmed “named” starters for Friday, April 8th are RODRIGUEZ, NOLA, MEANS, MCCLANAHAN, BUEHLER, WEBB, GRAY, BERRIOS, SANMARTIN, MORTON, ODORIZZI. The second is that my forecast of team wins has changed just a bit. With these two changes, we have new odds!
On Thursday, certainly, BOS/NYY is a popular game. NYY having Cole on the mound will make them a large favorite. NYM DeGrom is the only > -200 game and -227. MIL Burnes and SD Darvish will be very large away favorites. SEA RAY is now a small FAV over MIN with Ryam starting. MIN Joe Ryan is a rookie. He will be the first MIN rookie to start opening day since 1969. He was a 7th round draft pick of the TB Rays back in 2018 (overall pick 210). He made 5 starts late last season going 2-1 with a 4.05 ERA. 26.2 inn). He does NOT throw hard (91.3mph) but is graded with 3 plus pitches (FB, CB, and SL). He throws FB 66% of the time, SL 16.5%, CH 10%. In 3 of the 5 starts, he allowed 2 runs or less. He will get to face the reigning AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray. KC is allowing Greinke to make a “ceremonial” opening day start. Greinke does not have the best stuff on this team but he is a veteran and log time Royal. I don’t like his matchup though with Bieber. ATL Fried gets the opening day nod for the World Champs. I like their chances vs the Reds. STL Wainwright will not be a favorite often when he matched up against the better pitchers in rotation spot #1, but against PIT, he should be just fine. The game of the day will be HOU/LAA. Framber Valdez gets the start. HOU manager Dusty Baker could not get Verlander on the right days to match up to starting on Thursday so it will be Valdez. I have this a pick’em. An interesting note is that Odorizzi gets the Friday start and he will match up with Syndergaard (not confirmed) which should make HOU the dog.
On Friday, we have 6 games > -200 favorites. We have an early look to see how DET matches up as they get the division-winning CHW in game #1. CHW will go with Lynn against newly acquired Eduardo Rodriguez for DET. TB beat the BAL 18 out of 19 games last season so they couldn’t ask for a better start as they get to play them at home in their opener. TOR opens as a HUGE fav over TEX. Berrios is -205! The game of this night should be MIA / SF. This matches MIA Sandy Alcantara and SF Logan Webb. Great pitching here with SF slight home favorites. LAA Syndergaard IS a favorite over HOU and Odorizzi. Not a big favorite but -110.
These will be very close to my final odds, however, there could be some changes being necessary. I will post one more time once all the pitchers are confirmed. FYI..I do this for every game every day! Let’s see if we can use my numbers to find value when the odds do come out at the sportsbooks.