I know that weather can and often does change especially the time frames when fronts make it into the area, but I am posting the weather forecast for the games as of today 04/04. We NEED to be alert as to what we see. I have written articles in the past on weather effects (see my next post for more on this) and if any of these early games have specific things associated with them. Weather effects are temperature, air density, wind, and precipitation. For that matter, this is a daily exercise we must peek at throughout the season however the early games have specific temperatures we are looking for.
I know most of you are expecting me to say that in games where the temperature is less than 40 degrees, we are looking to the Under. Hover, this is NOT the right stance to take. In fact, over the past 10 years, the OVER has gone 43-33-3 (.565) in such games! The main reason for this is not that there are so many more runs scored, but that the sportsbooks set a low total. We want the sweet spot of 50-59! There have been fewer runs scored in games at this temperature than in games below 40 degrees!
Ok, now the next weather issue is wind. The wind is more impactful than in any other condition on the scoring of games. We need to find conditions that are above 14mph! We don’t really care about anything less. There are sites that provide the direction of the wind as well (extremely important). We need to know if the ball will travel further because the wind is carrying it or if the ball will travel shorter because the wind is knocking it down. Maybe now you can see why we don’t really need to know about a 10mph wind because the ball will neither be carried nor knocked down. It should be obvious that if the wind is blowing out away from home plate, then it will travel further. If the wind is blowing in towards home plate, then it will travel less far. Knowing this will impact the ability of teams to hit “damaging” flyballs. If they can hit more or get some cheap ones, look at scoring to be high, if the wind is knocking them down, them look for scoring to lower.
Ok, now to the forecast!
First, note that the chance of precip showing at the highest of only 40% looks like we might be able to get the games played. Pay attention to the time starts though as forecasts are now time-based as you see shortly. Looks like we are going to be alright for these games. Now let’s look at temperature and wind conditions.
Notice here that the chance of precipitation increases as the day goes on. It starts at 40% and is at 55% by 4 PM so we might have a shortened game! This will impact scoring. Also, a major note is the wind. It is forecast to be blowing at 16-17mph in from right-center field. Lastly, the temperature is in that magic 50-59 degrees zone at 52-53 degrees. BOS/NYY are historically high-scoring games, this one might be a great spot to be on the UNDER.
Chicago Wrigley Field is famous for the wind and the wind will be a major factor on Opening Day. It is blowing out to right-center field at 18-19mph! Expect this to be the very last game total posted all season. Sportsbooks want the wind information before releasing a total and don’t be surprised to see these totals at or above 10 runs when the wind is blowing out. The temperatures will be low 45-47 degrees. The precipitation chance is only 15% so we should see a game here.
Based on my comments, I think you can piece together the outlook for these games from here so I will just post the forecast for the rest of them.