Webbie’s Odds this morning
My thoughts on today’s games.
If you wanted to MIL Burnes, that should have been played last night when the line was -150. Now that it has moved, the value has slipped away. We are still trying to get the best number we can and we are trying not to wager on the worst of the number. WSH Corbin seems to be popular today. It doesn’t bother me as a play as long as you keep it to a first 5 innings wager. The WSH bullpen is not very good at all and is a disadvantage against NYM. All the pitchers today are most likely to only go 4-6 innings, so bullpens will play a role. Don’t bet on the WSH bullpen! CLE Bieber is special. He is a Cy Young kind of pitcher and he has a good line against Greinke today. He has only thrown 30 pitches as a MAX in spring games so he will not make it too far today. An increase of 25 pitches doesn’t guarantee he will go 5 innings. You take an average of 15 pitches per inning to get a gauge of how many innings a pitcher may go. Here again, a first 5 seems a better play, but the numbers do not make it a smart wager. I do not mind Bieber bets, but it is too high a price (F5). I like the STL team’s total of over 4.5. I got it at -120. STL will face PIT Brubaker. Brubaker has a propensity to walk batters and allows hard contact. Guys getting on base, hard contact, is right up the STL offense alley. STL has had major success off Brubaker going 29 hits in 83 at-bats for a .337 avg with 6 HRs and a total of 14 extra-base hits. He faced STL 4 times last year going 0-4 with 21.2 innings allowing 26 hits and 16 runs! I like HOU Valdez +110 against LAA Ohtani. Yes, I like LAA this season. But I do like this spot here for HOU. They are a well rounded offense that can score multiple ways. Ohtani has NOT had much success against HOU in the past, plus he has only maxed out at 33 pitches in the spring. This will become a bullpen battle in which HOU has the edge. Lastly, I SD Darvish -136 against ARI. My number on this game is -181, so my numbers suggest a BIG value on the favorite. ARI Bumgarner is a balls-in-play pitcher so SD should have the ability to create more offense than does ARI against Darvish.
My 3 suggested wagers are STL TT O4.5 -120, HOU Vadez +110, SD Darvish -136
Have a great day!