Recap of 04/08; I went 1-1 for 0 units making me 3-2 +.64 units for the two days of MLB. Lost on the RL with TB as they won the game 2-1. They certainly had their chances to make this a bigger margin as they left the bases loaded and scored only 1 run with the bases loaded and 0 outs in the 8th inning. I won with F5 Under 4.5 MIA/SF. Sometimes playing these F5 innings games can be very smart (or at least make a person look that way) as the game was 3-0 through 5 innings. The bullpens got involved with a final score of 6-5! TB was +115 and the Under was -120 so the net ended up at 0 units.
Today’s board is NOT easy to navigate. We do NOT want to play big favorites often. Sometimes is ok but over time we want to avoid this as a normal practice. Today there are 8 games -150 or better, and 4 more at -140 or better. We end with 12 of the 15 games being difficult to make money. There is one of these games I haven’t wagered on but might. It is the NYM @ WSH game where Bassitt is -143. My line shows NYM should be -178. The margin there is enough to make a wager, but the line has moved down from the -170 that it was last night. If that stays true closer to game time, I will likely play NYM but it is better to see if it comes even more! If I play, I will post an update saying I did.
On to what I have wagered this morning. At 2:05 pm, I played SEA/MIN F5 Under 4.5 -115. This is a match-up of Sonny Gray and Logan Gilbert. Both are fine pitchers with Gray more experienced and probably a bit better. Gilbert has 2 plus pitches, one is the fastball, and the other is the curveball. Gray has 3 plus pitches which are the fastball/sinker, cutter, and changeup. What I like here is that neither pitcher has faced the opponent hitters very often. Gilbert has only 12 at-bats against the MIN players and Gray only has 17. In these cases, the pitcher has the edge. Hitters tend to need to see repetitions of pitches, so at least early on in the game, I don’t expect much scoring. This selection is rotation numbers 969/970 SEA@MIN First 5 innings Under 4.5 -115
My second selection today starts at 4:05 pm. Here I find that OAK Irvin faces the PHI potent offense. Irvin is a pitcher who relies on his defense, so PHI will have balls in play. He does not get groundballs either with a GB% of 38.5% and has a high hard-hit rate! These make for a good PHI opportunity to get some runs. The PHI pitcher is Gibson. He is a groundball guy facing a below-average offense. I like the idea that PHI can get ahead while facing Irvin here by hitting some damaging blows. I played rotation #980 PH F5 RL -.5 -125
The third selection for today is a late game. The start time is 8:10 pm. I like to ride good play and bad play so in this case, we have ARI who has only 5 total hits in their 1st two games of the season. I have seen this before specifically with this team, but it happens to every team at some point in the season. More importantly, we need to ride put the poor offense performance with either unders or playing opposite of them. Today my choice is to play on SD Musgrove. He can be every bit as good as Darvish and Manaea have been against ARI. My number on the game is SD -205 and the odds are -160. These are too high for me to play that way, so based on the ARI offense and riding with their poor performance, I am playing rotation #964 SD RL -1.5 +100. I also like the idea that ARI is starting Davies on the mound. He is not overwhelming and relies entirely on contact. This suits the SD offense just fine. Musgrove is a strikeout guy with power which should continue ARI struggles on offense.
Additionally, two strikeout props I played today. MIN Gray Over 4.5 -144 and PIT Keller Over 4.5 +132. I played these at half units sizings.