Recap of Sunday.
I played 2 games going 1-1 but losing 0.35 units. STL F5 RL -135 was the loser. They started off great getting 3 in the first inning. However, Matz allowed 5 in the 3rd and PIT scored 2 more in the 4th. I am “riding” the poor performance offense of ARI and in the 2nd game earned another winner. SD scored 5 in the 2nd and kept adding. They scored 10 runs before ARI scored 1. This is a streak we are going to either play against ARI or the Under until ARI gets their offense going. This was game 2 of riding against them and 2-0 on this current ride.
I chose to add in Webbie Odds here as the morning odds are moving around some.
My first selection comes from last night’s Webbie Odds. I do send out the odds prior night of the games. I played rotation #953 NYM Walker +137. Webbie Odds says this line should be -105 which is a pick’em. NYM is projected to win 90.9 games winning % of .561. PHI is projected to win 86.7 games winning % of .535. Starting from here, NYM becomes a FAV with a 52.62% win probability. The home team is PHI so they get a little for that, then it is about the pitchers. Walker vs Suarez. What the books are telling us is that Suarez is an ace. He is not. PHI’s offense should be better by the end of the year, but currently, NYM’s is #1. PHI is overvalued so I play NYM here.
My 2nd selection is a copy of the 1st. I am on #957 SD Martinez +133. Again here we see SD a team who should win 90-91 games playing a team projected at 82-84 wins. Over the course of the season and currently, SD has the better offense. Martinez is not a known commodity to most (pitched in Japan the last couple of seasons) so we are getting value with SD. Webbie odds say they should be a small favorite, yer we can get them at +133.
My last selection is #965 TOR Manaoh +105. If you are not familiar with Alek Manoah, watch him pitch over his next few starts. He is young, and throws hard, with 3 plus pitches (he only throws 3 pitches). I like his matchup today against Taillon. Taillon is more of a flyball pitcher. That does not bode well against the TOR offense. The TOR offense has 7 HRs already and is 3rd in MLB. I like getting Manoah as a small dog here when Webbie Odds this he is a small favorite. He faced NYY twice in 2021 throwing 11.2 innings allowing 7 hits and 3 runs for a 2.31 ERA and 61 Game Score. Taillon faced TOR three times in 2021 throwing 13 innings allowing 13 hits and 9 runs. TOR has the better pitcher tonight and we will have to see who has the better pitcher, but I put my money on Manoah.