Recap from 04/12: I went 2-1 +.85units. The winners included CLE Beiber -107 and HOU@ARI UNDER +9.5 -120 (keep on riding that ARI poor offense!). The loser was PHI Wheeler F5 -.5 -115. Season to date results: 11-5 +5.50 Units
I guess the days of the MLB board being relatively easy to spot a couple of games are now long gone. The sportsbook odds are pretty sharp and it takes a lot of creativity to get involved. My first selection of the day is going back to playing against the ARI offense. I chose to play on HOU today. The wager is rotation #973 HOU F5 -0.5 -110. This wager consists of two thoughts. First, ARI cannot score so I am still riding that train. This will continue as long as it takes. ARI has scored a total of 12 runs in 5 games, In one of those games they scored on a home run late to beat SD with 4 runs, and they lost while scoring 5 runs giving up 10. It means they score 9 of their 12 runs in two games, scoring only 3 runs in their other 3 games. Second, Merril kelly is on the mound and he pitched to a game score of 59 in his first start. His games score average last year was 51, so he is above his normal game. It means we should expect regression to a degree from him today. HOU Valdez is in the same boat, yet he doesn’t have to face a potent offense so I like his chances of having a cleaner start than does Kelly. HOU used 5 bullpen pitchers last night so I prefer to keep this a battle of starters.
My second selection is starting at 7:05 in Baltimore. MIL has had a very rough start regarding their starting pitchers. Ideally, this staff is right up there as the best in baseball and is currently ranked #27. Corbin Burnes makes start #2 and his first start produced a game score of 45. His season average was 66 last year. Every pitcher will have below-average starts, however, ace-type pitchers will rebound with stellar performances. I expect that today from Burnes. Also, keeping the theme from ARI above, there is one team that has scored fewer runs than that of ARI…and it is BAL (10runs, worst in baseball). Sure their best pitcher, Means, is on the mound for them. MIL is not exactly started off with the best offense, however, I expect balls to be in play against him and he has a high flyball rate so MIL could do some damage. I played rotation #975 MIL F5 -0.5 -110. Similar to HOU above, both Hader and Williams pitched last night for MIL so I opted to stay first 5 innings.
The last selection is Chicago. I was against supporting SEA Robbie Ray in my forecast division shows, but this is a spot where he is dominant. He pitched twice against the CHW throwing 13.1 innings allowing 2 runs, but get this, he struck 27 batters! If CHW can not get on base, they will have trouble scoring. SEA will have a HUGE edge in balls in the play area. SEA’s offense will face Dallas Keuchel who is a soft tosser. SEA will not worry about him at all in terms of contact. We can get Ray as +100 too. SEA offense has not awakened but this might be their chance to at least put balls in play which gives them more on-base opportunities, thus more scoring chances. I played rotation #965 RAY +100.