RECAP of 04/13; I went 1-2 for -1.10 units. The lone winner was in BAL as MIL Burnes covered the F5 -.5 2-0. I also had HOU Valdez F5 -.5 vs ARI and they were behind 1-0 after 5, so it’s loser #1. I will still be riding the ARI poor offense though. Their streak continues as they scored 3 runs in 10 innings on only 6 hits. Loser #2 is SEA Ray +100. This game was kinda back and forth as SEA scored 1st. Then, CHW with a 4-run 2nd inning went ahead 4-1. SEA scored 2 in the 5th but that was as close as it was going to get. On the season, I am 12-7 plus 4.40 units.
Today I am playing two games, possibly a three depending on the money moving as the first pitch gets closer. The first game is rotation #919 LAA Ohtani F5 -.5 RL +100. I was too late to bet the money line value but I was going to wait on the LAA lineup construction before I played the overnight number (LAA -130). The money is coming in on LAA with the odds now LAA -147. I like this game for the “carry-over effect” LAA has by winning their last series at home combined with TEX losing their last series. The momentum is riding with LAA. The other reason is Ohtani has success pitching against TEX while Dunning has been poor against LAA. WEBBIE ODDS have LAA -145 so the current odds of -147 are not really out of the question here, but knowing how the pitchers match up, I think F5 RL is a better value.
The second selection is rotation #910 COL Freeland -112. Again, we will see COL coming home off a winning an away series and CHC traveling off a split series with PIT. COL is 11th in offense slightly better than CHC which helps this choice, but Freeland is the reason for this play. His first outing was not so good, but that usually means he should be average at worst today. He has been a good home pitcher in the past, recently being .500 but he was 10-2 in 2018. He has thrown 3 games against CHC and all 3 have been above average. CHC will start Justin Steele made his 2nd career start in his opener. This means he is likely to pitch at best around average and more apt to be below average today. He has only pitched against COL once and his results were not good. I like the carry-over effect, plus that Freeland is the better starter here.
The game I am waiting for is in Miami. I like MIA Alcantara today but only as an underdog. I do not see any value in a weak offense being a favorite over a good offense even though Alcantara is one of the best pitchers in baseball. MIA opened as +103 dogs but are now -115 favorites. The small value is not only gone but almost starting shade PHI!