RECAP: I won one and lost one yesterday. I played the NYY -1.5 -115 and they left the bats in the bat rack! I also went back to the well with LAA -109 and they came through. Overall, I lost .15 units of juice. This makes the season total now 19-12 +5.57 units.
Today I have two selections. The first is in Houston for the home opener of the Astros. They will play LAA and throw Garica. LAA will throw Lorenzen. It is a long wait for the HOU home opener as they played 9 away games to start the season. We will have seen these two play against each other already. HOU won 3 of 4 games on opening weekend. NOTE: Lorenzen was not seen by HOU in that series. HOU batters have only had 10 at-bats total against him. This does not bode well as HOU is also 26th on offense right now. Certainly, that will not hold through the entire season, but we are not wagering some time in June, this is April and they are not hitting. Advantage LAA. One of my favorite handicapping angles is where a pitcher is facing the same team he faced during his last start. This is the case for Garia. In these spots, more often than not, it is better to assume the pitcher will do a reversal of his last performance. For Garica, he threw a game score of 58 which is near ace-like. We should expect regression today. The LAA batters have had success vs Garcia too which helps to further extend the angle to their side. I know there is a low chance of Mike Trout playing tonight but he only has 3 at-bats ve Garcia not that I wouldn’t want him playing if he could. The Angels are #2 in all of MLB on offense entering this game. I like the idea they come off a 1st away series win against TEX with a little bit of “we need to show HOU we can do this” kind of attitude. I am playing this two ways. First, rotation# 917 LAA F5 +.05 -108 for a full unit and F5 Moneyline +144 for a half unit.
The second selection is also out west. We see ATL going to play LAD where Kershaw matches up against Ynoa. The odds are showing LAD -208 which is too high. We need to see how to get an ATL wager. First, Kershaw is off a no-hitter performance for the seven innings he threw last time out. Another great handicapping angel is to wager against pitchers off their no-hit starts or near no-hit starts. Sunde 2019, Kershaw has only thrown against ATL (regular season) twice. In those games, he has thrown 12.67 innings allowing 17 hits and 9 runs. His game score avg is 43.5. This bodes well and is supportive of the aforementioned angle. LAD is the #1 offensive team in baseball right now so I do not like betting against that! However, LAD has not seen Ynoa and he is off of a poor start. It means we should see a progression from him. Trea Turner is the only Dodger with at-bats (9) against Ynoa and he has 2 hits for a .222 avg. I expect ATL to be very competitive tonight. The wager I played is rotation #911 +1.5RL -109.