RECAP: Rough day! Really liked LAA yesterday but would likely not have played at all if I saw the lineups prior to the game. I knew Trout would not play, but Rendon was a scratch too (not sure how close to game time so may not have mattered) meaning that we should not be backing the Angels without Trout or Rendon. On top of that, HOU activated a played Yordan Alvarez who promptly hit 2 HRs in the game. Anyway, my thoughts did not go as planned and I lost 1.58 units on this one selection. I also was beaten in the LAD game making my day 0-3 -2.67 units. Season stands at 19-15 + 2.80 units.
I only have one selection today despite all the games available. I like rotation #959 PHI GIBSON -130. The idea here is that PHI has the better pitcher based on metrics, throws well in COL, throws well vs COL lineup, and has a backend that is better (yes, I know). The Rockies have been hot with the sticks but have not faired well against Gibson. They have batted 52 times with only 7 hits for a .120 avg. The xWOBA measure (forecast of weighted on base) is a significant edge to Gibson as his .205 is way better than COL Freeland’s .341. Gibson has a FIP of 2.87 vs COL lineup which means he controls the outs whereas Freeland has a FIP of 6.77 against PHI! You can use FIP in relation to ERA so we can certainly see there is value in Gibson. WEBBIE ODDS says this game should be PHI -147 so we are getting some EV+ return. It would be a better play if PHI were hitting on all cylinders, but Harper and Castellanos are hitting well. Freeland is a lefty so maybe this is the day PHI comes alive with life with the bats as they are #4 wRC+ 151 vs lefties. It means they are 51% better than average.