RECAP: Oh, yesterday was a day. I go 0-4 -4.2 units, and officially now 19-20 and -2.70 units on the season! ATL was just the wrong side, COL blows a lead, OAK loses on an error and no offense, and CHW 2nd game played their backups! It was just not a day for me! On to today!
My first selection is in CLE start time is 1:10. I played on rotation #959 CHW CEASE -137. Here we get CHW off a doubleheader loss with the better pitcher. My odds said -181, so I think there is significant value here. A closer look at CLE Plesac indicates he has been very “lucky” on the season. The batting average against him is .233, and the BABIP is .235. He has been lucky to have balls batted in play average, not to raise very much over the batting average; that happens when more batted balls are hit to fielders than holes where fielders aren’t. It also is not sustainable, indicating this will reverse the trend at some point, and batters will find more success. He has also had trouble against the CHW lineup as they hit .338 against him.
My following selection is in BOS, where I played on rotation #963 TOR GAUSMAN -107. This play has more to do with BOS Houck not being a #1 type starter, which puts value onto TOR. Houck has not faced TOR too often, only 22 at-bats, and has done well in that short amount of opportunities. However, there are chinks in the armor here. Houck has predictive metrics such as SIERA at 5.22. He also has a low K/9 rate of 7 and a high BB/9 of 6. It means that balls will be in play, and the expectations are reasonable that TOR will have success scoring runs. HE also has low swing and chase and swing and miss rates. Gausman has fared well in his history against the BOS lineup. The matchup favors TOR.
My final selection is in KC, where I chose rotation #965 MIN RYAN -128. The play is more about playing opposed to KC Greinke. He is an average pitcher these days and already has thrown two of those games, indicating a poor one is on the way. His xFIP and SIERA metrics are over 5.00, and like above, he has been fortunate to have batted balls hit to fielders. His batting average against is .250, and his BABIP avg is .256. MIN has the better offense, too, even though they have not been explosive. KC batters have not seen MIN Ryan, so there is an inherent edge there.
Lastly, there is a situational edge to all of these games. Teams that play day games on Thursday getaway days where they are playing on the road on Friday, and are home dogs on Thursday, are 5-20 SU.