RECAP: I went 2-1 yesterday for plus .63 units. The winners were TOR Gausman and MIN Ryan, but we had to sweat out both games. The loser was CHW Cease. The season now is 21-21 and minus 2.07 units.
Today’s first selection is in DET as I select the visiting Rockies and Senzatela. Rotation #929 Senzatela +138. COL will oppose DET Skubal. COL comes into this game with the #5 offense over the last seven days, and they are #8 vs. LHP. Their offense is an edge as DET ranks #23 with only Grossman and Torkelson as successful batters. COL’s successful batters list includes CJ Cron (who dominates), Blackmon, Connor Joe, and Alan Trejo. They also three batters above 0 OFF War but not above 1.0 OFF War which is how I am looking at “successful batters” or “hot hitters.” DET SP Skubal has thrown two good starts and is ripe for a regression start, and vice versa is true for COL Senzatela. He has thrown an average and a poor game, so he is progression ripe. COL is off of a winning home series against PHI, so I like them to carry over that momentum in game one. Webbie Odds has COL with a little value showing COL +127.
My next selection is in MIN where I again try to “wake up” the CHW! There is just too much value showing on CHW today as Kopech is +100 and Webbie Odds says he is a favorite of -120. The selection then is rotation #921 CHW Kopech +100. This is a bit unusual of a choice as CHW is the #29 offense in baseball (there are only 30 teams). I like to play against poor offensive teams. In this case, MIN is the 18th ranked offense so they are in the bottom half but not near last. Where this became close was in successful hitter lists, CHW has an edge in the bullpen, plus they have the better starting pitcher. CHW has two hitters Gavin Sheets and Adam Engel on their batters list. MIN has only one, Nick Gordon. Nothing against Gordon, but he is not the stir to the drink in MIN. I believe that the CHW offensive deficiency is mitigated by MIN offense deficiency. The CHW bullpen ranks 9th whereas MIN ranks 28th. If this is a close game, CHW should have the edge in the later innings. Then there is the matchup of Kopech vs Ober. Ober is not a strikeout pitcher nor does he get groundballs. He will allow plenty of contact which should be right up CHW’s alley.
My last selection today is in SEA where I will be playing the home team. Rotation #926 FLexen -126. SEA is the #1 offense in the last 7 days and faces a starting pitcher in KC Keller who is regression ripe. Keller’s first two starts have both been stellar. He has had poor success against SEA in three tries against them. He is 0-2 with a 5.51 ERA. So far Flexen has been average so he is progression ripe and should have success against KC’s 24th ranked offense. There is a big offensive edge there and a reversal of fortune expectations for the pitchers. KC has had a good bullpen to date so far ranking #3 but SEA’s in 10th so I will take my chances here with the home team full game as opposed to a first five innings wager.