RECAP: I went 1-1 yesterday as one game was rained out. The CHW +100 lost in the 8th inning and they had bases loaded in the 9th but failed to tie or take the lead. Mgr Tony LaRussa has (in my opinion) mismanaged his team many times in the short season so far. I had a winner in SEA.
My first selection goes back to the rainout from yesterday. I have copied the write-up from yesterday and pasted it here. I select the visiting Rockies and Senzatela. Rotation #979 Senzatela +120. COL will oppose DET Skubal. COL comes into this game with the #5 offense over the last seven days, and they are #8 vs. LHP. Their offense is an edge as DET ranks #23 with only Grossman and Torkelson as successful batters. COL’s successful batters list includes CJ Cron (who dominates), Blackmon, Connor Joe, and Alan Trejo. They also three batters above 0 OFF War but not above 1.0 OFF War which is how I am looking at “successful batters” or “hot hitters.” DET SP Skubal has thrown two good starts and is ripe for a regression start, and vice versa is true for COL Senzatela. He has thrown an average and a poor game, so he is progression ripe. COL is off of a winning home series against PHI, so I like them to carry over that momentum in game one. Webbie Odds has COL with a little value showing COL +127.
Yesterday I left PHI/MIL under F5 off the picklist, but today I am going back there and playing rotation #956 PHI WHEELER F5 RL -.5 -115. PHI Wheeler is making his next start looking to rebound from a very poor outing. I believe he will do just that. MIL is the #25 offense in MLB and Wheeler has pitched well against them. His expected wOBA is .248. It means MIL should have trouble getting on base. MIL Houser xwOBA is .400 and PHI has the #2 offense, so PHI has a big edge. I believe MIL has the better bullpen so I want to shorten the strength spots of PHI to the first 5 innings.
Lastly, I selected rotation #957/958 STL @ CIN F5 Under 4.5 +100. Here we get division rivals so they have seen each other often. CIN Mahle is making his next start off a poor one with an xwOBA of .326 vs STL. STL offense ranks 23rd. I expect him to throw well and limit STL scoring. CIN has the worst offense in MLB! They are -16.0 OFF WAR and the e#29 team is -9.2, so CIN not only is the worst, but they are really bad! STL Hudson has an xwOBA of .304 against them. This should be lower scoring while the starters are in the game.