We are in Philadelphia tonight where we see MIL a potential division winner face off against PHI with their offense! MIL will throw Eric Lauer and PHI Aaron Nola. On the surface we are getting a lot of PHI looks for this game. PHI has the 5th ranked offense and is #1 vs LHP such as Lauer tonight. The betting odds are PHI -145 and the total is 7.5 runs. There are no weather concerns.
Aaron Nola has not been sharp in his first 3 starts of the season yet his sabermetric numbers indicate he is in for a good game tonight. His xFIP is 3.27 and SIERA is 2.75 which are predictive measures of what to expect based on his pitching performance. He throws a fastball, curveball, and changeup. MIL offense is ranked 26th vs FB, 26th vs CB, and 28th vs CH. Definite edges to Nola. If he is on, MIL should struggle to get hits. Nola is also good at inducing groundball with a GB% of 63.2%. PHI has the chance to completely dominate this game. Their offense is an edge, and if Nola is on, PHI will win no issues.
However, Nola has not been on much of this season and Lauer has had great success against PHI. He threw 19IN allowing 14hits and 7 runs but only 3 earned runs. He had 15Ks in those 19IN. He can be the equalizer here. Plus, MIL ranks #2 in the bullpen and PHI #25. The longer the game stays close, the better MIL’s chances to win are. I’ll go one step further, Yelich .391, Wong .308, Renfroe .455, and Cain .800 all like hitting off Nola! Even though the PHI offense has an edge, the MIL offense seems to like to hit off Nola.
This is conflicting and confusing! We know we can’t bet PHI a full game because their bullpen will be in play and PHI will be at a disadvantage there. The first 5 innings might be a way to go but Nola is -155 and -115 -0.5 on the run line. MIL can hit Nola and Lauer has shown success against PHI so I am against anything ON PHI tonight. My thought is to take MIL full game at +135. I think Lauer has shown we can have enough confidence in him to compete. I am hoping for a tight game and MIL bullpen being the difference. If Nolas is on, MIL is will not win, but he hasn’t been yet, MIL has the ability and pedigree to win this type of game.