RECAP: I have not been blessed with good “Baseball God Outcomes” as of yet, and went 1-2 yesterday losing 1.15 units. SEASON now 23-24 -3.22 units.
On to today. I have two selections and will separately post the Sunday Night game.
The first selection is in WSH. I am wagering on rotation #901 SF WEBB RL -1.5 -125. Webb is an ace pitcher for SF so he should average 60 or better game score. His last start was a game score of 35, so he is progression ripe. He induces ground balls as his GB% is 58.9%. His sabermetric forecast is xFIP 3.44 and SIERA 3.52. He also does not put guys on via the walk, so they will need base hits to get on base. I expect a very good start from him today. WSH is starting Adon who is off of a great start (Gsc72). He is not an ace and is very hittable. SF should have little trouble putting balls in play. Not only will SF have hit opportunities, they should also draw some walks as don’s BB/9 is 5.28! His forecast metrics show 5.09 xFIP and 4.81 SIERA so Webb is a clear edge by a least 1.5 runs. I expect the #26th ranked WSH offense to be limited today by Webb and the #17th ranked SF offense to have plenty of opportunities. The money line is too high so I chose the RL.
The second selection is in HOU. I am wagering rotation #919 TOR KIKUCHI +115. Although Kikuchi is a pitcher that does allow hard hits (which could be damaging hits) he often gets groundballs. His GB% is 59%. He throws left-handed which could be major as HOU is ranked #26 vs LHP currently. I like the premises that HOU offensively is struggling and they will face a groundball pitcher. It limits the chances of extra bases hits. The wind could also be a factor here as it is blowing out to centerfield at 14.5-15mph. TOR does have power and could exploit Garcia in this aspect. Garcia is a flyball pitcher with his FB% at 63%. I like TOR to have more of the damaging hits. Kikuchi pitched for SEA which is in the same division as HOU, so there is a familiarity there. He was good and bad vs HOU in the past. Over his last 5 starts vs HOU, he threw 2 ace-like performances and 3 below-average starts. Garcia has yet to have a set back so he is regression ripe. WEBBIE ODDS suggest HOU -115 and the odds are -135. There is value on TOR today so I am in!