What is base runs? Base runs (BsR) is a baseball statistic invented by sabermetrician David Smyth to estimate the number of runs a team “should have” scored given their component offensive statistics, as well as the number of runs a hitter or pitcher creates or allows. We need to understand value as it relates to team strength. A won/loss record does not always indicate where to find the value. Base Runs standings and Pythagorean standings are similar and will allow us to find the unforeseen value in teams. We will also see the overvalued teams based on their record. Let’s look at the AL East.
The column on the far right is Base Runs. The column on the far left is the actual record. The NYY are 24-9 actual record. Base Runs has them at 22-11. The +2 indicates NYY has won 2 games more than they should have based on their component offense stats, plus what the pitchers have allowed. We can see TB (+3) should be at 17 wins so they are 3 games better than they should be. BOS, on the other hand, is (-3) so they have lost 3 games more than they should have. I found the Base Runs standings in this division interesting. Yes, as the actual records suggest, NYY has a big lead. However, everyone else should be at 16 or 17 wins! This means there is value in teams like BOS and BAL plus too much value in teams like TB and TOR.
Here are the rest of the standings.