Let’s determine what makes a great starting pitcher. It is two things. First they must be dominant in the “3 True Outcomes” and second the must limit base runners. If these two thingas are true, then a pitcher will have high strike oput rates, low walk rates, and low HR rates (the 3 true outcomes) plus the will be have great xwoba metrics! xWOBA is a predicitive stat based on stat cast data and will predict the future of hitters getting on base aganst the pitcher. So this is how to an swer question #1 of who are the best pitchers, but if I can combine their dollars won and lost per start, we can see if these pitchers are actually who we should be wagering on.
The next chart lists starting pitchers in order of xwoba. The lowest result is the best. The MLB xwoba avg is .329. This list of the best pitchers has .305 ad the highest so these are very good pitchers. It also contains k/9, bb/9, and hr/9. The next to last column is the dollars won or lost by wgaering on this pitcher.
It is fair to say by reviewing the wagering results, the best pitchers in the game are NOT always the best wagers to make! There are 24 pitchers listed above and 10 of them are loisng propositions. However, these ARE the right pitchers to wager unders!