When it comes to Spring Training, it is important to focus on who is injured, who has changed things, who is limited, and so forth. It is NOT important to focus on games, innings, or results. Sure, that is not a carte blanch statement, but the gist is results are not the most important element to understanding how a team is prepared to start the season. Knowing how pitchers will be used in terms of pitch limits or where they might fall in the bullpen is more important. The same is true for position players. Suppose we can understand if the player is healthy, if there is a role/position change, or if the player is trying to improve his swing. These are the types of notes we should be taking. We should keep an updated list for every team. Another important data point is pitcher velocity gained and lost from the previous year. We can see the rise and demise of pitchers from these reports. If a pitcher loses velocity, there is a strong probability he will not pitch as well as in the past. Pitchers have been gaining velocity with all the specialized work regarding the Rapsoto machine, high-speed cameras, spin rate monitors, and so forth. These pitchers have a great chance of performing better than in the past. This type of information is not built into a line because it is not viewed as important to a power rating. However, we can get a head start on sportsbooks if we know something that can alter the value of a team in the first few weeks of the season, and the sportsbook will have to catch up regarding adjusting their lines.
A perfect example of this information comes from Jeff Zimmerman at Fangraphs. He writes an article named Mining the News. I am pasting a few tidbits from his Feb 2nd article to share, and I encourage you to seek this kind of knowledge and by all means, read his stuff.
• Michael Brantley might not be ready for Opening Day.
Astros outfielder Michael Brantley remains hopeful he’ll be ready to be in the Opening Day lineup following shoulder surgery performed in August. Brantley said Monday he will clear another hurdle next week when he begins taking batting practice, a major step with Spring Training less than three weeks away.
Athletics
• The team will NOT utilize a six-man rotation but will have to be “flexible” with Shintaro Fujinami used to a six-day rotation. • A.J. Puk will be shifted to the rotation. • Dany Jiménez is the favorite to win the closer’s role. • Jesús Aguilar is working on his swing to hit high fastballs.
Mariners
• George Kirby and Logan Gilbert will have their innings limited in Spring Training and to start the season. • Jarred Kelenic is in the base shape of his life. • Cal Raleigh (thumb) and Tom Murphy (shoulder) both had surgery this offseason.
Orioles
• According to the GM, Grayson Rodriguez is expected to make the Opening Day rotation.
Rangers
• Brock Burke could throw over 100 IP out of the bullpen.
Twins
• Kenta Maeda is 100% healthy. • Jorge Polanco is “ready to go“. • Alex Kirilloff still has a sore wrist.
Braves
• Ronald Acuña Jr. thinks he’s back to normal.
Giants
The team plans on utilizing some combination of five-man and six-man rotations and tandem starters.