College Bowl Game line moves.

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Since there are so many new sports gamblers, addressing line moves is a good topic. A line move is defined by the odds or the spread of a game changing before the start of the game. Information such as injuries, opt-outs, transfer portals, and coaching changes will make the odds and spreads change. The fallacy of this is to believe the changes do not include this information already. So many gamblers like to follow this stuff, and rightfully so, but it should be used in the handicap of the game. This is public information, and the market has adjusted for these moves. If this information helps one find an edge, it should be acted on before the market knows about it, as the gained edge is substantial. However, once the moves are “baked in” to a settled line, one should look to other situations that have created line moves. I am trying to express that nearly everyone will be late on “public” information and that you should already build the new line into your handicap. If you adjust late, you will make the same adjustment twice, askew a proper handicap. An example would be finding information about Ohio University on a website such as this.

This shows Ohio University will miss significant starting players on offense, such as their quarterback, wide receiver, and running backs! This is excellent information to wager on as it will dramatically lower the value of output Ohio University will produce. However, let’s look at the line move for this game.

Ohio opened as a -1.5-point favorite, with a total of 54.5. After the information went public, the new line is Ohio +3.5, with a total of 49! If you were to make adjustments now based on the information, you would be moving the line twice, thus creating a mistake and causing a poor wager to be placed.

Now let’s talk about line moves another way. The common mistake is to believe the sportsbook adjusts the line to get 50% of the money on both sides of a game. Please do not believe that. Sportsbooks are grande places that are expensive to build and run, yet they never run out of money. The sportsbook has what is called risk. It means they will have more risk (money) on one side of a game than the other. Once the risk gets too high, they will move the number. However, the more common occurrence is to allow that risk to build so the sportsbook will make a large amount on that game.

An example is when you see a spread of like -6.5 with 75% of the money on the favorite, yet the line never comes off -6.5. This means the sportsbook wants you to keep wagering on that -6.5 as they feel the right side is the dog! A goal of a sports bettor should be to know what side the sportsbook wants to win, then wager on that same side!

Another issue is to understand why a line moved in the first place! Why did it happen? The possibilities are many but narrowed to just a few choices. Those choices include sportsbook risk, “sharp” and “heavier” money bets, a syndicate giving out a play that generated larger than regular action, and public information. Did you know that a sportsbook will open lines at low limits, raise them mid-weekly, and open them up for the weekend? This information is essential because the early line moves are based on “sharp money” wagering into the lines that help establish the market. Thus, the late moves are likely sportsbooks trying to hedge their betting odds to make profits. Keep in mind one serious thought. No matter how much they are wagering, the public does NOT move numbers! If you study why a line moved, maybe it was an injury, the weather, or a syndicate release, knowing the difference between the two will help you make winning wagers!

Good luck with your wagers!

NFL SF VS PHI

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Today’s SF @ PHI NFL game is an excellent example of learning line value and when to make wagers. As the photo illustrates above, almost 15% of all NFL games end with a margin of 3 points. It is the upmost key number for NFL football games. There is a massive difference between 3 and 2, or even 4. This game was available to wager SF -2.5 earlier in the week, and now is SF -3. The winning wager is one where we put our money in good, so we get the best of the odds! We don’t wager if we cannot achieve this goal.

This is where the math comes in to clarify what we should do. If we did not get SF-2.5 earlier and our only opinion is to play -3, we are NOT getting our money in at the best of the odds, so we will PASS! However, we can always look to manipulate the line to get a favorable opportunity, but what price is acceptable? The purpose of gambling is to get a reward for risk, but few will risk too much for too little! Find yourself a half-point calculator! The calculator shows us that we can “buy down” the -3 to -2.5 and still have acceptable odds if they are -135 or lower. If we have to pay anything more significant than that, it is not getting the best of it, so we again PASS.

So I hope this helps with the value of a half point! Make outstanding wagers by getting your money in with the best of it!

It’s been ahwile!

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First of all, apologies to all who want to learn and get information from this site regarding their sports gambling endeavors. My intentions were always to provide quality content. Throughout a LONG baseball season, changes to my health affected me.

I am not sure my health issues are in the clear and hope to have them cleaned up soon, so there could be bouts of time when I can not be available; however, the intention of what I do will have better focus and clarity, which I believe will, in turn, make this a MUST destination for most of you.

The purpose is to be clear and informative, yet NOT fit into the “content creator” category. There is a specific reason for this. Content creators DO NOT provide legitimate sports gambling advice. It is often true that they do not actually place wagers; if they do, it is for their entertainment value only (meaning they wager $50-$100 a game). Real gamblers make bets they expect to win, so they place more significant amounts or units on them. Content creators provide entertainment value masked as gambling advice. Of course, I need to provide entertaining ways to deliver this content, yet differentiate what a winning bet to make looks like versus a thought. I will do this through articles and videos here on this website. I will cover not only baseball but football, hoops, and hockey. Anything where a winning wager type can be made!

I will start my own show while continuing to participate on the radio in Las Vegas (KSHP with JB “the Ticket”) and various POD casts, especially East Coast Sports Investors with Jeff Dawson.

I live in Florida, and our state has reopened for business. Everyone around me is gambling on these games. It has become apparent that there is an extreme amount of new gamblers or people who want to have fun watching the games with money on them. Although that statement refers to Florida, it does apply everywhere. There is a definite need to educate and supply opinions without the obnoxious connotations and behaviors of many in these lanes. I believe I can do that! The truth about sports wagering is that it is math! Yes, just like poker, you want to pass on things where you don’t get your money in good and play strong where you get your money in best! Assume we are holding pocket aces or kings every time we wager. It is possible to do that. For those more willing to risk, we only play when we believe we get the best of it, yet we will play our pocket 10s as an example! The beauty of wagering, unlike poker, is that we get to wager in multiple ways to exploit our advantage, and the house won’t fold!

Watch this site, or sign up for the free email (on the premium services page). MLB Winter Meetings are starting on Monday, NCAA Bowl games will get released this week, and hoops/hockey are ongoing, so there is much to discuss!

Almost 20 games into 2023

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As the season has just begun, I thought it was an excellent time to note what I have seen.

First, the rule changes have worked for what they were intended to do. The game is moving at a more enjoyable pace, yet not too fast. There is much less standing around and way more pitching, hitting, and fielding, so the pitch clock is a success. The throw-over rules have made base stealing a weapon again. We have many more attempts this season. The no-shift rules are allowing for more hits. I think having all fielders on the dirt part of the infield is also impacting the game. The more athletic players will succeed, and the strategy will become lessened. So impressions are that the rules have made the game more enjoyable to watch, created more action from the players, and still shortened the game times! Excellent job, and it is being rewarded in tv viewership!

Second, we have a very clearly defined group of teams that cannot compete fairly with every team in the league. It is no surprise that the bottom feeders are bottom feeders, but what is a surprise is how poorly they have played. The group contains Oakland A’s (3-16), Kansas City Royals (4-15), Washington Nationals (5-12), and Colorado Rockies (5-14). It is not just that they have poor records, look at how badly their opponents have beaten them. Run differential measures this, and OAK is -86, KC -51, COL -51, and WSH -21. Washington has been able to get decent pitching which has helped, but all of these teams are way behind, with about 11% of the season completed. Is it possible that we could see a -400? On the opposite spectrum, we see a group of teams that are head and shoulders above the rest of the league. This group contains the Atlanta Braves 14-5, Tampa Bay Rays 16-3, Milwaukee Brewers 14-5, and Texas Rangers 12-6. Again using run differential, ATL (+32) and TB (+83) appear to be the most sustainable of this group. The Rays have yet to be challenged by good teams, so they could still be the best in the American League, but it is clear how good Atlanta is. Their offense may set records, and they have quality pitching.

It is common to see a few teams over-perform expectations or under-perform them to start a season, so we will have to keep an eye on this group of teams. This group includes the Pittsburgh Pirates (12-7), Arizona Diamondbacks (11-8) leading the NL West, and Texas Rangers (12-6) leading the AL West. Conversely, the teams underperforming include Chicago White Sox (7-12), Seattle Mariners (8-11), Philadelphia Phillies (8-11), St. Louis Cardinals (8-11), LA Dodgers (9-10), and SD Padres (9-11). All of these teams are only a handful of games above or below .500, so a streak, one way or the other, could revive or diminish the next few weeks of games.

I have enjoyed the teams who have already understood the value of young, athletic players by calling up some of their prospects. There were three starting pitchers making their MLB debuts today! This is how the game gets fresh and new. I suspect we will see more of this as several pitchers and batters don’t belong and ultimately are hurting their teams. An example of this is ARI Madison Bumgarner. He can’t get enough outs any longer, and with Arizona now in the first place, they cannot continue to be non-competitive when he pitches.

I hope the next few weeks will deliver enjoyable games like the first few weeks have. I suspect we will see some balancing in the standings. A look at them in the middle of May will not define the entire season but will determine who these teams are. By that time, if a team needs to improve to become competitive to make a playoff run, the General Manager will know. Let’s see where things shake out then and formulate some strong opinions on the remaining schedule of games and which teams can impact their futures.

MY MLB 1ST WEEK RESULTS

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Opening day was Thursday, March 30th, and today is Wednesday, April 5th completing the 1st week of the MLB season. This is just the beginning of a 7-month daily grind of trying to make some money wagering on this sport. However, if those next months are as prosperous as the 1st week, this will be a great season!

Here is a list of every wager I made for the week. I will not be doing this for public view every week. I made 15 wagers, winning 11. I used $100 as a unit size, so tracking and math are easy. It ended with a 26.9% ROI.

A tool used to generate these results is Webbie Odds. People who sign up with me get this daily. It can be used to identify your wagers or learn how to wager as I do it. Webbie Odds currently are not showing strike-out props (too little 2023 data), but over the next week or so, Webbie Odds will have both game recommendations and strike-out props! Here is what Webbie Odds looks like.

The season really gets going for me as the data starts to compile. Unfortunately, there is not enough data to complete a starting pitching analysis. That will change in the next week or so! I need roughly three starts for the pitchers to get helpful information, and after one month, we are rolling. A sample of the SP Analysis is below. Notice there are three other tabs! Tons of info!

I offer all of this data, plus provide access to the wagers I make! I only collect $49.99 per month or $200 for the season. It is a tremendous deal! Sign up with me! Even if you don’t, I hope to help or assist you in any way I can because MLB is a passion, and it is a great sport to wager on!

MLB-DAILY MLB POWER RANKINGS

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Everyone likes power rankings, so MLB-Daily will join in on the fun.

I don’t think the top of the list is too difficult for either the AL or NL, with Atlanta and Houston being the cream of the crop. I chose ATL as the best team, with HOU in the 2nd spot. There is no more of a complete team than the ATL Braves. There can be teams with more considerable star power, but none goes as deep as they do.

My list will show that I am not high on the Dodgers, and I am more bullish on the Angels. I also believe the NY Yankees can fall out of the top 5 or even lower very quickly. The AL Central doesn’t show up until the 13th position and three teams are listed from 13-18. So this division is up for grabs. I believe there is a significant gap in the NL Central as well. STL is much better than the rest of the teams.

Without further ado, here are the power rankings to start 2023!

MLB Opening Day is now here! Some wagering tips for the day!

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A new season begins on Thursday, just a few days from now! The World Baseball Classic has revved the engine for this season with great hype and expectation. We will see players on new teams, highly touted rookies, and new rules. However, for us bettors, we must not become fans to the point we forget what we are trying to accomplish. We want winning bets! With that said, here are a few items to remember specifically for opening day.

All teams are as equal as they will be the entire season. They all have no wins or losses. It is important because the bad teams are not yet far out of the division races, so they are in their most competitive stage of the season. They haven’t been pounded down, so they will be more spirited today. I assure you that a significant underdog will win on opening day. Be careful wagering the big favorites in those parlays!

Pay attention to the weather! This is twofold. These teams have come from Arizona and Florida’s warmth and will now be playing in much cooler weather. The other issue with cold weather is the baseball. It does not fly as far! Run scoring usually is lower in cold weather. Consider looking at under-wagers before over-wagers.

There has been much hype regarding the rule changes and how much more offense will be in the game. While I believe it will be more entertaining, I disagree with the thought that more runs will be scored. Instead, we will see stolen bases, more balls getting through the right side of the diamond, and more athletic plays. Therefore, I will be taking a contrarian stance looking at under spots.

There will always be much said about injuries. However, please try to contain your enthusiasm to downgrade teams based on specific players not being in the lineup. Injuries are a significant deal when they are clustered. For example, if a team loses 3 of its 5 starting pitchers, that is a cluster. A team will not have replacements on the level to sustain a previously expected winning percentage, so they should be downgraded. More often, though, people must know who is playing, and if a star is not, the team must be downgraded. This is not a best practice. Teams will have role players step into those situations and perform very well. It is unlike in the NFL, where a star quarterback becomes irreplaceable. Baseball seems to overcome these issues on a short-term basis.

Lastly, be aware of the radio, tv, and experts. They will have created expectations for teams or players that broadly do not match data forecasts and projections. Of course, those are not perfect; however, they take on regression modeling, which properly tempers expectations. The media people are selling their media, not providing the information you can utilize to wager on.

Have a great Opening Day! Win some bets!

WBC Semi-Finals, down to four, then we move into MLB!

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As earlier suggested, this WBC event would be an event to rival any other out this year. It would be that way because of this classic’s superstar, talented players. The list is very long, so here are just a few, Mike Trout, Shoei Ohtani, Sandy Alcantara, Juan Soto, Mookie Betts, and more. The crowds have been both record-setting and cheering loudly. The atmosphere is much like playoff baseball.

Numbers can easily measure its success. It has drawn 1,010,999 fans for the first round of pool play, the most in its history. The previous record of 510,056 was set in 2017, marking a 98% increase in attendance for 2023. The average attendance of 25,275 also set a record for the first round. Mexico’s victory over Team USA on March 12 at Chase Field drew 47,534, a World Baseball Classic attendance record for any first-round game.  In Miami at loanDepot park set the record for the most-attended World Baseball Classic round ever in the United States, drawing 295,850 fans, an increase of 81%. The television rating across the globe have been more amazing! In Japan, the March 10 broadcast of the Japan vs. Korea game on TBS registered a 44.4 rating, making it the most-watched game in any country’s history of the World Baseball Classic. The game outrated all sports competitions during the Tokyo Olympics. Japan’s four first-round games averaged a 42.3 rating in the country. In Taiwan, Chinese Taipei’s four first-round games averaged 1.301 million viewers on EBC News, an increase of 151% versus the 2017 tournament. In Korea, the four games featuring South Korea on SBS/KBS/MBC averaged 1.781 million viewers, marking a 35% increase from the 2017 first-round average. In Puerto Rico, WAPA Deportes delivered a 77% increase compared to 2017 for their games in the first round. Team USA’s first game versus Great Britain on Fox and Fox Deportes averaged 1.592 million viewers, making it the most-watched first-round game in the U.S. since 2009. The record viewership also led to increased traction on social media. The World Baseball Classic social media accounts’ total engagements during the tournament’s first round were up a remarkable 564% compared to the first round of the 2017 event.

The WBC is now down to four teams remaining. According to the odds, there are clearly two favorites, Japan and USA. This tournament could see anything happen, yet I suspect that the final will be the favorites. If that holds up, it will be the largest viewed game yet!

Now, as the WBC winds down and all that energy and electricity cools off, don’t for a minute believe that MLB won’t get its turn. Granted, it is a 162-game, 8-month grind of a season, so the energy level will not ramp up until the end. However, that does not mean there will not be electric games! Far from it. MLB will have the most action-packed athletic competitions from this sport in years. The rule changes will impact the on-field version of the game, forcing viewers to pay attention as there will not be much dead time, and for the best players in the world to make more athletic plays putting their talents on center stage! The scoring won’t be significantly changed, nor the stats because of these changes, yet the game will be much more enjoyable to watch for most fans. In many ways, the purist will be happy, and the sport will gain popularity. A win-win!

Don’t forget how fantastic baseball is! We might not get to see Edwin Diaz come into the game this year due to injury, but don’t be surprised if other very cool things start to happen.

Those looking at the wagering side of things understand that baseball is a grind. It is every day for eight months. This creates opportunities galore! There is data available like no other sport. It can be thrilling, yet many times it becomes overbearing, and people give up. This year is a fantastic season to start wagering on baseball if you haven’t. The game will be fun to watch; the interest will be high, making for prime wagering opportunities. Join the fun, and win while you learn! Sign up with me: https://mlb-daily.com/premium-services/

WBC is Down to Six!

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We started with 20 teams and are now down to 6. Cuba and Japan are in the final four! Two teams from this mix of the USA, Venezuela, Puerto Rico, and Mexico will capture the remaining two spots for the final four teams. To this point, we have seen lines ranging as high as -10000 or only run lines. The run lines have been as high as -6.5. Now that the good teams are all that is left, we see lines that are wagerable. Here are the lines for the reaming quarterfinal games.

Puerto Rico throws Marcus Stroman, and Mexico Luis Urias.

Urias MUST stop Francisco Lindor. Lindor is 7-15 in the tournament with 6 runs scored and 5 runs batted in! They have only matched up 2 times in MLB play, where Lindor is 1-2. Puerto Rico has not hit for power, as they only have 2 home runs. Their edge has been their lineup has delivered throughout the nine guys. Lindor leads with 5 RBIs, yet there are 4 batters with 4 RBIs and 2 more with 3 RBIs each.

Stroman MUST stop Randy Arozerena! Arozerena is 7-14 with 5 doubles and a home run! He has also scored 6 times with 9 RBIs! Arozerena has seen Stroman 5 times getting a double. Joey Menses and Rowdy Tellez make up the others who do damage for Mexico. Menses leads the team with 9 hits, including 2 home runs and 6 RBIs. Menses is 2-5 against Stroman with a couple of strikeouts. Tellez has 6 hits, including a home run and a double, with 5 RBIs. He has faced Stroman 6 times with no luck going 0-6!

This becomes a battle of the big 3 for Mexico against the entire lineup for Puerto Rico. Still, Mexico will have the starting pitcher edge and Puerto Rico the bullpen edge (even without Diaz).

The likely pitching match-up for USA and Venezuela is Adam Wainwright against Martin Perez. I will look more into that later.

As far as the future odds of winning the WBC, they look like this.

I have futures tickets on Japan at +300 and USA at +330! I don’t see how Japan will not finish as the favorite, so now all they need to do is win the thing. It is also very possible to have Japan and USA in the final, but we shall see.

Join my service for only $49.99 or $200 for the entire MLB season! https://mlb-daily.com/premium-services/

The Truth and Fallocy of sports handicapping services!

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Here is the reality of this industry. A sports bettor loses more often than
they win. This endeavor is almost impossible to beat. It is exciting and
exhilarating, which is why so many are involved, yet only 3%-5% of sports
bettors are profitable overall! I Googled the question, “What is the
average sports bettor win percentage?” I am pasting the answer here.

Different studies spit out varying results, but somewhere
between 3-5% of all sports bettors are profitable in the long run.
Some turn into very successful gamblers, while some only take home modest
winnings each year. Most of these successful gamblers have spent years
perfecting a system that works for them.

As a result of all this loss, there is a need to gain access to the bets
made by those few who win. Bettors are then willing to spend money for this
access. So far, a serious need can get satisfied via available wagering
services. Seems like a good business situation for everyone, right? Well, yes,
but not exactly. Here is the truth. There ARE services
that supply long-term winning wagers. Most of these services are expensive to
gain access to their wagers. Hence, we get just about everybody marketing their
ability to make winning wagers. Go back to the beginning! It is an absolute LIE
that most services win long-term. They rarely do, so when you use Google and
type in “Sports Handicapping Services,” the result shows 62,300,000
results! Yes, that is 62 million results! A smart deduction of this can only be
that this industry is convoluted with garbage, making finding real services
nearly impossible.

Let’s talk about how a bettor makes money. They must win their bets which
seems obvious, but they must also cover the sportsbook vigorish (also known as
“vig” or “juice”). A normal sports bet will have odds of
-110. A bettor must win 52.4% of their wagers to win the equivalent dollar
amount to cover the vig. If the bettor now uses a handicapping service, they
must also cover the expense of that money spent. This means the amount of money
wagered per game and the amount the service charges are crucial to a bettor’s
ability to afford a service. If you are a casual bettor wagering $20 per game
and a service is $100 per month, you will have trouble! A typical service will
give you 3-4 plays per day, so we use 30 days times 3 plays we get 90 plays. If
you wagered $20 per game (x90 plays) you would have wagered $1800 for that
month. Now add the $100 fee (remember that is 5 of your bets),
and we get $1900. Let’s say the service wins 52.4% of the wagers earning you
$943.20 (52.4% x $1800). If you won 50% of the wagers that is $810 plus and
$990 to the minus. Remember, the odds are at -110, and this is that effect, so
now you are losing money. Either way, there is still $100 to pay. At 52.4% you
will be in the hole $100 and at 50% in the hole $280 ($990 losses, -$810, wins,
and $100 fees). So, even if you are at 50% you lose $280 monthly! The larger
amount of money to bet per game reduces the impact of the fees unless the fees
are extremely high. This equation really needs some care by the bettor to make
sure the math works.

Services range in price yet a normal amount is $100 per month. I know
services that are nearly $1000 per month, so it all depends on the value to the
consumer. Then there are the ever-popular FREE handicappers on social media.
These guys are not entirely void of knowledge and can show a profit in the
short term. However, anyone not willing to charge something for their work is
NOT a professional. Thus, I ask, “Would you willingly wager your
hard-earned income based on amateur advice?” This could apply to any
service industry like electrician, stockbroker, plumber, or doctor! As a smart
deducing person, I believe this to be a fallacy world. As you make smart
choices, you must determine what service to choose and why. There
are several ways to sort out the 62 million options quickly!

Ask for transparency, not records! Record verification is weak and
completely made up! Third-party verification companies can also be bought, I
know because I have personal experience with it. Most verification companies
make money from handicapping services. The service pays them to keep their
record. But it doesn’t quite work like that. The verification company has
software tied to the lines of the games. The service inputs their plays, but
often the lines don’t match what the service gave out. It becomes a negotiation
over whether a wager should be graded win or loss, and often because the
verification service doesn’t want to lose money and wants to keep a service
happy, changes records. Regardless, there are better ways. Being that smart
person, you wouldn’t take the word of mouth from someone you don’t know. Why a
verification company you don’t know? The better way is to ask questions about
the service when they try to get you to sign up.

You need to know how they handicap games. Are they just reading trends on
Google searches or doing some homework? Don’t let a service tell you they have
systems! Wagering doesn’t work off of systems. Don’t buy into the catchphrase
“we have and get inside information.” No one has that. A legitimate
service should be wagering based on the value in their odds against the
sportsbook odds, so they will be able to detail that value in terms of
percentages they see. If they cannot, weed them out. You should be
“interviewing” your service candidates! You want to know how they
come up with their selections. A service takes pride in their work and will gladly explain most things. Certainly, you want a service able to “read
the market.” Line moves are big news. A winning bettor makes their bets
based on these regularly. Your service should have a vast knowledge of this
market! Ask them questions about it.

It is as simple as almost everyone should be using a good service. I have
been in this industry publicly supplying and selling wagers for 10 years. I
want to be paid for my work, but I also wager on every bet I provide. That is
important! I don’t want to make my living from the service; I do that from
wagering! I provide this service to teach those who want to learn, advise those
interested, and allow bettors to follow one of those in a 3%-5% long-term
winning group keeping them from all the riff-raff they could run into.

Sign up for only $49.99 monthly or $200 for a season.

Use this link: https://mlb-daily.com/premium-services/.

 

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