MLB Daily

As I use only Sabermetric data, I need to ensure anyone reading or listening to my content understands what I am saying, why I use the data, and what everything means. I have a multitude of charts. These are compiled from specific data points from several places. My inability to write Python code means I manually input these every day. I was reminded to explain everything though. I will lay this out to match how my charts are laid out so the information will match the charts you are reading or I refer to.

WEBBIE ODDS

WEBBIE ODDS are the first to be published every morning. They are composed of a blend of FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus, and BaseRuns projected standings. Each team has a probable winning percentage that is put into a formula that gives a probable winning percentage when these teams play each other. From the winning percentage, I use FanGraphs (I will abbreviate as FG going further) projection systems. They show Steamer and Zips projections for players. Both Steamer and Zips are companies that make projections. I use an average WAR for the pitchers to adjust the winning probability due to the strength of the pitchers. This generates a winning probability that needs to be adjusted for the home field and turned into a money line. For example, a winning percentage of 56.41% becomes -129.

WAR- Wins Above Replacement. It is the value for a player compared to an average player shown by how many more wins he is responsible for. The larger the number the better.

WIN Probability or Winning Percentage: The percentage a team will win when facing the opponent. Win probabilities can be turned into money lines by using an odds calculator. Here is a link for one: https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.html

WEBBIE EV+ TOOL

WEBBIE ODDs are input along with market odds into the WEBBIE EV+ TOOL. They are shown as My Probability (WEBBIE ODDs) and Listed Odds. My Probability column populates the MY ODDS column. TRUE ODDS are the listed odds when the sportsbook vigorish is removed. The Implied No Vig% is the probability of true odds. The Implied w/VIG column is the probability of the Listed Odds. The vigorish column is the difference between the No Vig and with Vig column. The Value column is the one that shows EV+ situations. If the result is “black”, there is a positive expectation or more probability of winning than the sportsbook is offering. If it is “red”, there is less probability than the book is offering, and is a negative expectation.

EV+ = Extra Value Positive, The definition is when there is a greater probability of winning than what the sports book is offering.

Pitcher Report

The GSC sections refer to Game Score. Using game score, I can see how a pitcher’s past results are using a composite scoring system rather than a pitching line. GSC1 is the last start for the pitcher or the prior to the one he is making today. GSC3 is an average of a pitcher’s last three starts. GSC7 is an average of a pitcher’s last seven starts. The reason for seven, is during a 30-45 day stretch, a pitcher will start 6-8 times. I want to use his last 30 days as baraometer for his current form is. I look at his last 3 and last 1 to gause the rgression bar. If a pitcher has a GSc60 in the GSC3 column and a GSc52 in the GSC7 column, it means that he is overperforming his curent form and regreeion is due or ripe for this pitcher. GSC YTD is the games score ofr the season. By using game score, I can quickly asses the quality standard, and gauge whether this pitcher should throw above or below his standard in this game.

Game Score: Game Score was created by Bill James to measure the quality of individual starts. While most baseball fans are familiar with the traditional “pitching line” of Innings, Hits, Runs, Earned Runs, Walks, and Strikeouts, James’ Game Score consolidates those statistics into a single number that makes comparing starts easier.

xFIP and SIERA I refer to as metrics. I do not use ERA. I use these instead. When there is an “x” in front of any Sabermetric data point, it is a predictive data point. It is telling you what will happen not what has happened. That is exactly what we are looking for. These metrics tell quite the story of our pitchers. They have signigicant meaning to expectatins. To use xFIP, we must define FIP. FIP is Fielding Independent Pitching. It measures BBs, Ks, and HRs. It is only things the pitcher controls. I have used the term “Three True Outcomes”. Those three outcomes are BBs, K, and HRs! Think of it this way, this measures how much a pitcher is in need of his defense. Thes metrics are shown like an ERA so it is easy to know what is a good acore and what is a poor one. The lower the number th better. So xFIP, tells us how a pitcher will control the game from the mound and if his defense will be needed. I often use the terms balls in play to describe this. The more balls in play, the more the defense has to be involved.

SIERA is Skill Interactive ERA. While FIP and xFIP largely ignore balls in play — they focus on strikeouts, walks, and homeruns instead — SIERA adds in complexity in an attempt to more accurately model what makes a pitcher successful. SIERA doesn’t ignore balls in play, but attempts to explain why certain pitchers are more successful at limiting hits and preventing runs. This is the strength of SIERA; while it is only slightly more predictive than xFIP, SIERA tells us more about the how and why of pitching.

Here’s what SIERA tells us:

Strikeouts are good…even better than FIP suggests. High strikeout pitchers generate weaker contact, which means they allow fewer hits (AKA have lower BABIPs) and have lower homerun rates. 

Walks are bad…but not that bad if you don’t allow many of them. Walks don’t hurt low-walk pitcher nearly as much as they hurt other pitchers, since low-walk pitchers can limit further baserunners. Similarly, if a pitcher allows a large amount of baserunners, they are more likely to allow a high percentage of those baserunners to score.

Balls in play are complicated. In general, groundballs go for hits more often than flyballs (although they don’t result in extra base hits as often). But the higher a pitcher’s groundball rate, the easier it is for their defense to turn those ground balls into outs. In other words, a pitcher with a 55% groundball rate will have a lower BABIP on grounders than a pitcher with a 45% groundball rate. And if a pitcher walks a large number of batters and also has a high groundball rate, their double-play rate will be higher as well.

xWOBA and L30 xWOBA

wOBA is weighted on base average. Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) is one of the most important and popular catch-all offensive statistics. wOBA is based on a simple concept: Not all hits are created equal. Batting average assumes that they are. On-base percentage does too, but does one better by including other ways of reaching base such as walking or being hit by a pitch. Slugging percentage weights hits, but not accurately (Is a double worth twice as much as a single?) and again ignores other ways of reaching base. Weighted On-Base Average combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value. While batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage fall short in accuracy and scope, wOBA measures and captures offensive value more accurately and comprehensively. xWOBA is the expected weighted on base average. It is shown to look like a btting average. However, move the expectation up a little nit. an average WOBA is .325.

While xWOBA is an offensive data point, I get to use it to define how batters will do against the pitcher. xWOBA vs OPP is how batters who have batted against this pitcher are expected to perform. It is pitcher versus hitter. xWOBA L30 is how the pitcher has performed over his last 30 days. I get to see what an offense is going to do against this pitcher before the game!

K/9 is strikeouts per nine innngs. My chart is red and green. Green is good and red is bad. A pitcher over 8.50 K/9 will be green. The goal is to limit baserunners and I want to know how many are eliminated via striekouts.

BB/9 is walks per nine innings. Just like above, this one though is less than 3.00 to be green. You might her me say or read my writing where i say ” he puts guys on base”. This is what I mean. We want to know how hard an offens has to work to get on base, and a pitcher puts them on base, they have an easier time with base runners, which in turn, generate scoring chances.

STUFF+ and PITCHING+

These are pitching metrics that measure the quality of pitches thrown. It is on a 100 scale so a 112 is 12% better than average. STUFF+ measures the characteristcs of pitches, including release point, velocity, vertical and horizontal movement, and spin rate. The higher this number, the better a pitcher’s arsenal is to get batters out. PITCHER+ combines STUFF+ with location and batter handedness. It show how a pitcher uses his arsenal to get outs.

AVG and WHIP

AVG is the batting average for hitters against the pitcher and WHIP is Walks plus Hits divided by innins pitched. WHIP tells us how many baserunners per inning a pitcher allows. The goal is to gauge these metrics against league average. Is the pitcher better or worse? Again green or red on the charts. We get know how baserunners per inning to expect. Keep in mind that baserunners equal scoring chances.

GB%, BABIP and BABIP Variance

GB% is groundball percentage. This tells us in comparison to league average if a pitcher gets more or less groundballs. A pitcher will want these, but not all pitcher are groundball guys. Their pitch plane and velocity will generate launch angles and we want to know what to expect. Groundballs are less damaging than flyballs.

BABIP is batting average on balls in play. By itself, BABIP really means nothing. What is tells us is on balls that are put in play, how many of these are hits. A pitcher does not control this entriely, he just effects it. When BABIP is compared to league average, we can see if a pitcher is unlucky or less favorable that balls in play against him have not found fielders. This also means that it will regress to the mean, thus he will start getting outs where he wasn’t before. I measure this through the BABIP Variance column. If the metrics is red, and BABIP is yellow, the pitcher has been fortunate and need to be cautious of ball becoming hits. If the metric is green, then the pitcher has been unlucky and his fortune should change to having balls become outs instead of hits.

HARD HIT RATE

Hard hit rate is the measure by percentage of the type of contact a batte makes. The harder a ball is hit, the more likely it will go for a hit and it has a greater chance of being a damaging hit.

WIN Probabilty Added

Like in football wher epa is a big deal, WPA is the same thing. It measures every play in terms of how much value was added to win the game and to lose the game. WPA is the total calcualtion of positive plays less the negative plays. This metric builds upon itself over the course of plays. I only use the data from the past 30 days. Another way to look at this, is when things get tough, does the pitcher respond? A positive number does indicate a “bulldog” mentality to winning games because he get those positive outcomes to help his team win. A negative score shows a lack of toughness which favores the batters.

OFF WAR

OFF WAR = Offensive WAR. WAR is measued by offense plu defense. When I am trying to get the value of battrer offensively, I use the OFF WAR metric. It is WAR minus defense. This tells us how many wins over a replacement player a hitters have contrubuted. I use only 7 day batting stats. Any time a player is listed with a 2.0+ OFF WAR, his name gets listed into the cluster section of teh Offense Report. Everyone with a 1.0+ plus result gets added to the strip on the right. I also in clude the negative -1.0 and above. The yellow column is the total of positive and negive OFF WAR results showing the cluster.

ISO=Isolated Power. ISO measures extra base hits as percetage aginst non extra base hits. Isolated Power (ISO) is a measure of a hitter’s raw power and tells you how often a player hits for extra bases. We know that not all hits are created equally and ISO provides you with a quick tool for determining the degree to which a given hitter provides extra base hits as opposed to singles. ISO tells you the average number of extra bases a player gets per at bat and this is a piece of information you want to know. ISO saves you steps from average and slugging because it is a cobination of them in data point. I measure team offense via OFF WAR and ISO. It is helpful to how teams score and ISO helps identify those variances.

For anyone not using my data or tools, I post them daily on my website. I will be glad to explain anything futher if necssary (www.webbie20mlb@gmail.com). I would also invite you to become a memer and recieve this kind of data daily. However,. it will come with my analysis and picks.

Ust this link to become a member: https://mlb-daily.com/payment-block-media-and-text/

Many bettors in the market make bets on trends, systems, line moves, injuries, weather, their favorite teams, and so on. They find reasons to put their dollars at risk. While spread betting is the most popular because of the points, it is true that whether you are getting or having to cover points, it’s the value that makes the bet. This value betting strategy should apply to all your bets, including money line wagers, parlays, teasers, or any other bet. Poker is this way and maybe the best analogy to making sports wagers. A bet where you believe that the odds of an event happening are greater than the odds offered by the bookmaker is a value bet.

In poker, there are 52 cards in the deck, and you see the flop, turn, and river for a total of 5 cards. A sound player will know which cards he needs to make his hand the best hand. In turn, he can divide those helpful cards (outs) by the cards in play to get actual probabilities of events. He can make the correct decision based on the card’s odds probability and the money in the pot. Sports betting is exactly the same thing! If a sports bettor is given -130 odds from a sportsbook which has a 56.5% probability, but he sees the odds as -150 (60.% probability). Now the bettor has a value bet. The value is 20 cents in the line or 3.5% in probability. As a bettor, we should be doing this on every bet or we don’t bet!

Making a bet is not the same thing as handicapping a game. Handicapping has to do with team and player comparisons. It can help gause the gap between teams. Bettors use trends, systems, line moves, injuries, scores, etc to determine these things. There is no handicapping a bet. It is either made with more or less probability of winning. We are in MLB season and there is NO BETTER way to make MLB wagers than this! If you use a service or handicapper, make sure you are getting the probability of your bet winning before you make it. If you are a DIY bettor, make sure you are adding probabilities to your process.

I have WEBBIE ODDS and through those, I get a WEBBIE EV+ TOOL. I have the probability difference for every game daily. I do handicapping as well, but I want to only make winning probability bets and a solution for finding those bets. I encourage you to give my website a look at http://www.MLB-DAILY.COM. I have plenty of helpful daily content but I also have a section for those who want it all. WEBBIE ODDs, WEBBIE EV+TOOL, WEBBIE Score Predictor, my proprietary Pitcher Repots, Offense / Cluster Report, Bullpen Report, and analysis for virtually every game are provided daily. I also share the bets I make. If you just want picks, or if you want the information to make your bets, this is the place to use.

Use this link to become a member: https://mlb-daily.com/payment-block-media-and-text/

The season shows that the home field is not so friendly right now. Look at the chart below regarding teams and their away records as of today. It shows 17 of the 30 teams have at least a .500 record and 22 are within 1 game of being .500 on the road. MIL, CLE, and BOS are a combined 30-8 when they play away from home!

Usually, these teams will be underdogs too, so betting on the away team has been profitable. The green ROIs in this chart outweigh the red and it’s not even close!

The run line comes into play roughly 28% of the time. There are 15 games per night when all the teams play, so there will be 4 one-run games. These games might be easy to identify when there are two dominant pitchers for example. My contention is not to be afraid of the run line and use it more often. I played a game recently where The Mets were -142 -1.5 and -135 on the money line. I played the Run Line and the Mets won 9-1! I made great value there. It is also getting to a point where certain teams can’t score any runs. These teams right now are the White Sox, Rockies, Cardinals, and Pirates. Playing the run line against these teams is a good idea. It is better to monitor these teams’ offensive output weekly. Every team will have its issues, you can be more prepared to get maximum value from betting against them.

I made two wagers today that ended in ties or for sports betting, they pushed. The bets were TEX first five innings -105 and CLE@BOS Under 9 runs. TEX had scored 4 runs by the second inning so all is great. In many cases, that is enough to win the wager already. However, DET rallied in the 2nd to score three runs. However, DET rallied and scored 4 in the bottom of the second inning to tie the game. Oh, no. TEX scored 2 more in the third inning and one more in the fourth to lead 7-4 and all is right with the world again. DET scored 3 more runs in the fourth inning to tie the game at 7 a piece. Two runs came on a flyball misjudged by the TE centerfielder and DET had two outs. All he had to do was catch the ball and the inning was over, I won the bet. I attached the play below. The following batter also got a hit which drove in the third run and snatched victory away! I did not lose the bet though as it was a tie 7-7, but it feels like I did.

In the CLE/BOS game, the score needs to be under 9 runs but at 9 runs I tie. The score is 2-1 CLE after four innings and all is good. BOS makes an error in the fifth inning as the leadoff batter for CLE gets to second base. The next batter makes flies out and then moves to third base. A walk then happens so there are now runners on first and third with one out (there should be two outs and only the guy on first). A base hit drives in the run from third and we have runners on 1st and second and a 3-1 score. The pitch hits the next batter to load up the bases with only one out. There is a ground that scored the runner on third base to make the score 4-1 and then a ground out to end the inning. The score is 4-1 not in the fifth inning. CLE scores another run in the sixth inning to go ahead 5-1. BOS makes two quick outs in their half of the sixth, then gets a single. CLE makes a pitching change. The next BOS batter singles. There are runners on second and first with two outs in a 5-1 game. The next batter hits a triple to score both runners and the game is now 5-3 and tending over! The next BOS batter singles to score the guy on third and the game is 5-4. There is no way we get this to have zero runs for the remainder of the game. Yet, that is exactly what happened. The game ended 5-4 and tied/pushed on under 9 runs. I feel like I won that one!

The moral of this story is that sweats in baseball betting are brutal. You have to take solace that you are making good bets and the outcomes will take care of themselves throughout thousands of bets. Every push does not feel the same nor was it achieved the same. The advice is to be callous towards these kinds of events. A learned habit is celebrating your wins because they don’t come easy and are worth letting some emotion go. Don’t harbor losses, move on to the next betting opportunity!

The paid or premium section of http://www.MLB-Daily.com has many daily features. These are designed to guide a new baseball bettor in the right direction for making quality bets. Whether you handicap the games, just want to be shown the process, or just follow my bets, the choice is there for you to make. The goal is to show you the way and allow you to make your choices. The daily features are WEBBIE ODDS, WEBBIE EV+ TOOL, Weather Report, Pitcher Report, Offense / Cluster Report, and Bullpen Ranks. A Score Predictor will be added in a couple of days as more data is coming in and it will work for all the games. You receive the best in the industry-originated odds, then apply to a tool to show the EV+ for every game! You receive the most updated weather reports. You receive proprietary Pitching information that removes unnecessary data only to provide the most important data! You receive proprietary offensive clustering. You receive bullpen ranks with bullpen usage issues where applicable. Nothing is not provided to make quality bets daily. Here are some samples from today. The price of this information is $150.00 for the entire season. I hope you will support the website and become a member. see this link:

Protected: PREMIUM CONTENT

Daily the WEBBIE EV+ TOOL is posted in the premium content. It will show where there is an expected value positive based on WEBBIE ODDS. Here is today’s version!

Another element that is a daily feature is the PITCHER REPORT. There is detailed data regarding the performance of pitchers and what to expect from them today. It is also given in the premium section. Here is today’s version.

A team’s offense is also part of the daily information! It is broken down into runs per game, and player clusters! Great tool. Here is today’s version.

There is a weather report, a bullpen report, and soon to come, a score predictor (more data needed). The score predictor provides a F5 score as well as the full game.

Thank you for your time and I hope to see you as a member!

I will LIVE with Jeff on X (Twitter) and YouTube today at noon talking day baseball. A deep dive into one game today you will like. I will take questions too.

@ECSportsinvest or @ Webbie20MLB on X!

I have several posts around MLB wagers people make or suggest are good so others should be wagering them too. MLB betting is NOT like spread wagering in the NBA or other spots. There are more moneyline wagers made, thus the odds are not -110 many times. Your bankroll is everything so protect it, but use it to grow. This is a balancing act over 7 months of grinding out wagers for baseball. The phrase “not too tight, not too loose” fits well.

Regarding these posts, wagers are posted as good plays at -180, -185, and more and these are coming from the likes of Sean Zerillo a handicapper at several social sites. I’ve seen others post LAD -400 in money line parlays (like Keith at PickWise). They do this daily with the large money line favorite spreads. I see wagers where people think there is value to playing boosts. If you haven’t done the math, these boosts are still bad so stay away! Betting baseball is about the discipline of never giving away a bet! Pretend you are walking up to the betting window to make your bet. At this point, most of us use our apps so at least pretend. You must take out your hard-earned cash dollars and give it to the person in the window. Now give over your money. How confident are you in doing that? Look, have conviction and purpose, or don’t do it!

For every loss of -140, you need at minimum two winners to overcome the blow to your account. It makes life difficult to get ahead, so don’t just throw wagers out there because someone said to. Vet out the thought process behind the bet. Be comfortable in your conviction and confidence in handing your money to wager. Protect your bankroll from unnecessary risk. Use it to gain profits from making good bets. It is ok to have an agenda, that becomes a plan, which then gets executed. It’s not ok to just read a post and not protect your bankroll, because those bets are not of good quality and it is shocking how these guys get to work for businesses that allow that behavior.

The new video series continues on today!

View this post on Instagram

A post shared by MLB-Daily.Com (@webbie_20)

First, let’s define the closing line value or CLV. Closing line value refers to the value of a bet relative to where the line closes. When you make a bet, you will have whatever line you were given when you made that bet, however, the market still moves right until the game begins. The line at the beginning of the game is the closing line. There could be differences in those lines and the goal is to have your bet made at better odds than the closing line creating closing line value. Ideally, the better you are at beating the closing line, the more apt you are at winning bets. Old-school guys will virtually swear by this and all the CLV value they can get. There is an art to this. To be good at this, you should be able to predict the market moving and bet according to those predicted moves to gain an edge over those who paid more. However, does this have anything to do with winning your bet? The answer is no. It helps maintain guard rails to your bankroll more than it helps to win a bet. I have heard, I am sure you have to, the people that say “Yeah I lost my bet, but I had great CLV meaning I made a good bet”. CLV does not mean anything related to making a good bet! It is a mask and excuse to provide some consoling reasoning as to why the best lost and still sound smart.

Most people are line shoppers, creating value by betting from one book versus another. CLV is important to them and that is reasonable as a goal. They would be better served to gauge the value in the odds between the books and bet that (called extra value added or EV+). The movement to the closing line is relatively meaningless. These “line shoppers” have no choice but to bet this way as they don’t create their numbers or handicap the game. You have heard them. They are the ones that say “I bet numbers, not teams”. This is where CLV dies! It doesn’t matter if you had the largest margin in the closing odds possible if your bet doesn’t win! The only true benefit of CLV is that you are always paying the least to make your best, thus you are not giving away bankroll when you lose a bet. This is a great concept, but you should always pay the least amount possible for any bet you make. If you are an originator of odds, CLV means extremely little. As earlier stated, always pay the least as possible, but if a line moves, it needs to be compared to your numbers. It could move towards or away from them meaning completely different things to the originator.

When the market moves towards your numbers, you have less value than before. An example would be if you had SF -130 and the opening number was -145; then the market moved to -135. At the opening, there was 15 cents value. After the move, there is only 05 cents. The market will move away from your numbers creating more value to your odds. A line line shopper won’t see this as value. They can’t because all they see is the betting board. As an originator, I prefer the market to give me better value so I want it to move away from my numbers! If SF -145 moved to -120, your odds were -130 making a 10-cent value. Most line shoppers will want to follow the moves, not go against them, thus there is no way for them to see any value.

So when I look at CLV, I think of guard rails for bankroll. When I look at EV+, I think of profits and good bet-making. The importance of being an originator can not be overlooked. There are advantages to seeing so many opportunities that become good bets because they have extra value with positive expectations versus the bookmaker’s odds. There is no need to stress CLV. Only strive to have EV+ value with every bet you make. I have learned to make only good bets and CLV will not be something you will ever hear me complaining about or strive for.

This week I get to use most of my data. The Score Predictor, Strike-out prop predictor, and first 5-inning score predictor start working! I also get to use current data! Let’s see where this goes from here! If you have considered getting a membership, now is a great time! Only $150 for the entire season!

MEMBERSHIP SIGN UP