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Notes: Again my model REALLY loves the Mets. DeGrom -430! The Bookmaker line is -275. I need to keep an eye on this and adjust soon. Interesting to see my model suggesting there are multiple overpriced favorites. Those over pride favorites are MIN, CHW, SF, HOU, CLE, CHC, and ATL. The one that sticks out is CHW. This is Cease vs Minor. The Bookmaker line is -150 and mine is -108. Oddsmakers not respecting KC in this one so this needs a deeper look. The same can be said for DET. Skubal is a better pitcher than Civale and CLE offense is not great, so a CLE -170 is too high!
My model also shows value in underpriced favorites. These are BOS and SD. BOS will fit the margins I look for regarding wagering opportunities as they will likely be less than -150 based on being -135 now. My model suggests they should be -162! There is value there. I was surprised to see TOR be a favorite over LAA. Matz threw well first time out and Quintana did not. TOR also has some Covid restricted players so they are shorthanded with their star players.
As with any line value comparisons, make sure to do your homework. Don’t miss the offensive side of the game either. Looking at the teams atop the best offenses list, they are winning!
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Notes: Today shows some variation in the odds. SD Musgrove shows the most with 57 basis pints but my number could be off or it could be more accurate but still not make me want to wager -180. Still, it is 11% EV+ so something to consider. Keep in mind TEX just beat TOR 2 of 3 so they come into the series with confidence. NYY Kluber is showing 27 basis points of value over TB and Hill. Then are are several variances from 13-19 basis points.
I was surprised at ATL line. Bookmaker has -124 and I have -111. PHI has been hot and Wheeler throwing well, so this one needs to be researched further. CIN looks like good value with Mahle. Playing a listless ARI team. It makes for another one to look into.
Notes for 04/08
MIA vs NYM is a rivalry series that most do not know. MIA has many visitors or “snowbirds” from New York. NYM has pushed the buttons of MIA while down during Spring Training and this is a bigger deal than many think. Say this it MIA wants to beat NYM more so than any other team. No listed pitcher so not sure of the plans yet but expect competitive games!
This is a home-opening day for many teams. PIT is one of them. They were outclassed in CIN last series but look for a good showing in the opener. BAL, MIN, CHW, STL, TOR*, and HOU are the others. TOR is playing their home games in Dunedin, FL, their spring training facility, it is not a full large stadium. The capacity limit will be small there especially with Covid regulations.
BAL starting pitcher is NOT Matt Harvey it is Hunter Harvey! That matters. Hunter is a relief pitcher so this is a bullpen game for them. BOS starter Rodriguez is making his first start and will be on a pitch limit. My model still likes ARI better than COL as it favors Kelly over Gray. All other lines are similar so no edge values there.
Seemingly it is impossible to find nothing to bet during a baseball season yet it does happen. It has happened today for me. Not that I am off to a good start, but I am always applying a strategy to what I am doing. Nothing fits today.
I set a standard number of -150 as the Favorite threshold and rarely cross it. There needs to be a high EV+ edge to wager those games. Nothing is off limits and some things things should be rare. This is one for me. There are 9 games that are -150 or higher today. There are only 4 remaining opportunities. The only one where I am interested in (MIL) has a significant flaw. MIL is 30th to start the season. They have a -13.5 OFF WAR and wRC+ of 41. It means they are 59% worse than an average offense. This shuns me off that one. I do like TOR and TEX Under 8.5 based on the starting pitching. TEX has the 30th ranked bullpen so far, so that nixes that one! ARI shows value based on my line, but I don’t trust Bumgarner and neither COL or ARI are hitting. The teams I want to play are too expensive via the odds and the game that I have interest in are have a fatal flaw.
A lot people like to parlay big favorites to get a return when they both win. An example would CIN -210 and NYY -175 in a parlay would pay +124. I rarely do that as it is hard enough to win one game let alone two. However, you still have to find away to have fun. This could be an avenue for enjoyment but is a long term losing strategy. People wager for many reasons buy one of them should be because you enjoy it.