NOTES: My model was pretty good yesterday with the new series starting. Lots of variance showing the way. Today is less games with variance but still quite a few. There are only 5 games with 20 basis points of variance or more. They are TBR/BAL (25), CHW/MIN(42), NYY/TEX(22), MIL/KCR*(32), and COL/SDP(86). The MIL/KCR games really depends on where you can wager. Circa in Las Vegas has -188 and Bookmaker offshore has -155 which either creates a variance or does not!

The SFG are a small dog and my model suggests they should be 50/50 coin flip game. The variance is just short of 20 basis points at 19. 19 basis points is 4.34% EV+.

The one that stands out is the CHW again. They are -115 but my model says they should be -157! This is Lance Lynn who is one of the best pitchers in the AL for CHW today facing a team that is struggling. There is great value here.

There are 3 games not yet lined. MIA, NYM, and ARI have not listed a pitcher yet for those games.


NOTES: When new series start, it is very interesting to see how my odds stack up. Today I see tons of variance. ALL but one game are 20 basis points of variance today! It does not mean everything is a play as there are many steep lines.

My model says CIN is -117 today and the bookmaker has it -140 which puts line value on SFG. Looking deeper, this is a stay away for me. SFG Webb last time out was very good and an outlier to the good side. He should not expect to pitch as well today. I do not like backing pitchers whose regression to the mean is strong to the down side.

My model again favors NYM! I might have had to look here, but NYM Walker is in a regression spot, and Conforto will not be in the lineup. However, even with that, the line for ATL has ballooned up to -150! My model suggests NYM are the favorite! Even though NYM have lost 2 straight, they are still 7-3 L10! ATL is 5-5 L10. I can’t see how this line should be this high.

My model like the CHC at -117 and the line is -150 generating value on WSH. Alzolay more dominant than Lester. Balls in play will favor CHC. Lester vs CHC could be a motivation for him, but I can’t see CHC as the wrong side here. However, the price is too high for me to support them.

My model likes CHW -130 and the bookmaker likes it as -105 (or pick’em). MIN is starting a lefty in Happ. CHW are the #1 offense vs LHP. I like this one.

NYY, LAD, SDP, and SEA are ALL very high favorites. My model suggests not high enough! The NYY are going to be close to -300 on the road! The smallest of these favorites is SEA at -170!


NOTES: My model suggests there are two teams that are dogs that should be the favorites today. It like DET as more pick’em -105 when the books like CHC -138. This comes from DET Boyd being almost twice the pitcher of Hendricks and being at home. It also likes OAK as favorites in stead of pick’em vs MIN. OAK Bassitt rates higher and the A’s are better so it has them -124 instead of -102. These are two games to take a look at for sure.

There are 5 games today where the variance in the lines are 20 basis points or more. Those games are LAA/BOS (23), NYM/TBR (38), ATL/MIL (34), TEX/HOU (38), and KCR/CHW (24). The short favorites are BOS, NYM, and MIL. The long favorites (by too much) are HOU and CHW.

There are two games without a line. The NYY/BAL because BAL has no starting pitcher yet. The other is CLE/SEA where I have a line and the books do not.


NOTES: My model shows one team that should be favored and is dog today. BOS is a dog to LAA today, but my model says they should be fav. This creates 42 basis points of value or an 8.68% EV edge!

There are 2 games still awaiting pitchers (NYM, MIA). There are 3 other games with no bookmaker line (ATL, PHI, CIN).

My model suggests MIN and HOU are too large of favorites today. MIN Berrios is -145 vs OAK. The model suggests MIN -113 is more apt and that is 32 basis points variance. Likewise, HOU Garcia is -180 vs TEX. The model suggests HOU -123 which is 57 basis points of variance. Both of these games then should be looked into for wagering on the dog.

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