NOTES: When new series start, it is very interesting to see how my odds stack up. Today I see tons of variance. ALL but one game are 20 basis points of variance today! It does not mean everything is a play as there are many steep lines.
My model says CIN is -117 today and the bookmaker has it -140 which puts line value on SFG. Looking deeper, this is a stay away for me. SFG Webb last time out was very good and an outlier to the good side. He should not expect to pitch as well today. I do not like backing pitchers whose regression to the mean is strong to the down side.
My model again favors NYM! I might have had to look here, but NYM Walker is in a regression spot, and Conforto will not be in the lineup. However, even with that, the line for ATL has ballooned up to -150! My model suggests NYM are the favorite! Even though NYM have lost 2 straight, they are still 7-3 L10! ATL is 5-5 L10. I can’t see how this line should be this high.
My model like the CHC at -117 and the line is -150 generating value on WSH. Alzolay more dominant than Lester. Balls in play will favor CHC. Lester vs CHC could be a motivation for him, but I can’t see CHC as the wrong side here. However, the price is too high for me to support them.
My model likes CHW -130 and the bookmaker likes it as -105 (or pick’em). MIN is starting a lefty in Happ. CHW are the #1 offense vs LHP. I like this one.
NYY, LAD, SDP, and SEA are ALL very high favorites. My model suggests not high enough! The NYY are going to be close to -300 on the road! The smallest of these favorites is SEA at -170!
NOTES: My model suggests there are two teams that are dogs that should be the favorites today. It like DET as more pick’em -105 when the books like CHC -138. This comes from DET Boyd being almost twice the pitcher of Hendricks and being at home. It also likes OAK as favorites in stead of pick’em vs MIN. OAK Bassitt rates higher and the A’s are better so it has them -124 instead of -102. These are two games to take a look at for sure.
There are 5 games today where the variance in the lines are 20 basis points or more. Those games are LAA/BOS (23), NYM/TBR (38), ATL/MIL (34), TEX/HOU (38), and KCR/CHW (24). The short favorites are BOS, NYM, and MIL. The long favorites (by too much) are HOU and CHW.
There are two games without a line. The NYY/BAL because BAL has no starting pitcher yet. The other is CLE/SEA where I have a line and the books do not.
NOTES: My model shows one team that should be favored and is dog today. BOS is a dog to LAA today, but my model says they should be fav. This creates 42 basis points of value or an 8.68% EV edge!
There are 2 games still awaiting pitchers (NYM, MIA). There are 3 other games with no bookmaker line (ATL, PHI, CIN).
My model suggests MIN and HOU are too large of favorites today. MIN Berrios is -145 vs OAK. The model suggests MIN -113 is more apt and that is 32 basis points variance. Likewise, HOU Garcia is -180 vs TEX. The model suggests HOU -123 which is 57 basis points of variance. Both of these games then should be looked into for wagering on the dog.
CHC @ DET
KC @ CHW
NOTES: It is interesting to see my model have overwhelming variance to the FAVs today. There are only 3 games where it has indicated the FAV is too large with one of them worth checking into. The TBR are -155 vs NYM where my model says TBR is -135 FAV. The main reason for this is the NYM projected wins are now more than that of the SDP making them 2nd most win in the NL behind only the LAD. NYM .575 and 93 wins. SDP .568 92 wins. My model has always liked the Mets and now more than SDP. TBR pitcher today is Glasnow. He is a legitimate ACE, so the game does merit a deeper dive, however, ACEs matter!
On to the FAVs that seem short. SDP are .69 basis points too low, LAD .34, SFG .28, and NYY .23. These are the ones over .20 basis points variance. However, to play these FAVs, you’ll need a hefty bankroll and a high risk tolerance. All but SFG are -180 or more. SFG looks like a great value at -143. This is a game to dive into.
There is no line in the 1st game of the double header with KCR and CHW but my line is large to CHW. Another no line game is LAA and BOS. My line suggests BOS -133. Needs to see how much the bookmakers lowered LAA and raised BOS. There could be a edge here.