NOTES: It is interesting to see my model have overwhelming variance to the FAVs today. There are only 3 games where it has indicated the FAV is too large with one of them worth checking into. The TBR are -155 vs NYM where my model says TBR is -135 FAV. The main reason for this is the NYM projected wins are now more than that of the SDP making them 2nd most win in the NL behind only the LAD. NYM .575 and 93 wins. SDP .568 92 wins. My model has always liked the Mets and now more than SDP. TBR pitcher today is Glasnow. He is a legitimate ACE, so the game does merit a deeper dive, however, ACEs matter!
On to the FAVs that seem short. SDP are .69 basis points too low, LAD .34, SFG .28, and NYY .23. These are the ones over .20 basis points variance. However, to play these FAVs, you’ll need a hefty bankroll and a high risk tolerance. All but SFG are -180 or more. SFG looks like a great value at -143. This is a game to dive into.
There is no line in the 1st game of the double header with KCR and CHW but my line is large to CHW. Another no line game is LAA and BOS. My line suggests BOS -133. Needs to see how much the bookmakers lowered LAA and raised BOS. There could be a edge here.
The point of this to understand a player’s value based on contribution to wins and MLB talent. As stated above, this is a cumulative stat, so it compiles over each appearance or a bat. The following is a list of starting pitchers from #1 to #30. Whereas WAR is wins above replacement, WPA is a contribution to team wins compared to league average. It means WAR rates how a player compares in Wins compared to a replacement-level player (AAA or call up talent level). WPA is wins compared to league average (MLB talent).
NOTES: It is not surprising to see Bandon Woodruff at the top of this list. He has pitched excellent! The next two however are a major surprise. Kyle Gibson and John Means! As this is not a predictive stat, these two pitchers likely have seen the best they will throw this season. Their projected numbers indicate 15th for Means and 38th for Gibson. Another surprise is ATL Huascar Ynoa ranking 10th on the list.
Another way to look at this for gambling purposes is that these are “HOT” pitchers that you want to bet on. They are contributing more to wins so we should support them. Just be careful not to jump on too late.
NOTES: Lot’s of variance in today’s slate of games! My model has 2 wrong team favorites (COL, STL) and there are 8 games where the variance is at least 20 basis points today.
I am still intrigued that the NYM are always more with my model so far, however, I must say that it is paramount to look deeper into their game today. NYM’s basic premise will be an above .500 team at season’s end and STL will likely be a .500 team, so NYM are the better team. NYM throwing Stroman, their 2nd best pitcher against Kim, is equivalent to Wainwright in projected WAR. Would you consider Wainwright a fav over Stroman? Me either.
I do not agree with the large variance of SFG over COL today. I can’t see SFG Webb being an away fav of -124. If it were a home game, that’s a different conversation. The primary reasoning for this is COL projects to be a .401 win percentage team or 65 wins (only the Tigers project worse). SFG is a .500 team so they are much better and COL Gray does not narrow that gap in quality enough. I still think Webb is not an away fav pitcher and the “pickem” line is accurate.
NYY Montgomery is only a -135 vs HOU Garcia. My model suggests a -159 is more accurate. This is a game to look into. Great atmosphere last night. Montgomery is in the NYY rotation and Garcia is a fill in to the HOU rotation. Worth checking into.
MIA has been getting some love for the bookmakers vs ARI. Yes, MIA has had the better pitching matchups but not to the degree of being -145 or -150 FAV. MIA can pitch, but they also are going to be the last place NL East team! ARI has 15 consecutive game with a HR! Not getting enough respect for the odd’s makers.
TBR are again using an opener. Kittredge is starting today, but he is the “bulk” innings pitcher. When handicapping the Rays, try to find out who that pitcher will be because he is the guy you want to use as the primary “starter”. Todays, it’s Yarbrough coming in after Kittredge.
NOTES: The beginning of this week sees new matchups like all new weeks do. Some good series look to be TBR/LAA, TOR/OAK, CLE/KC, MIL/PHI, NYM/STL, ATL/WSH, and HOU/NYY!
Today my model has 2 underdogs as small favorites. They are MIL Houser and TOR Matz. My model also likes LAD bigger than the sportsbooks. It like MIN less than the sportsbooks so it favors TEX.
There are 2 games with pitchers yet to be decided. There are two games where pitchers are making first starts. They are KC Lynch and SDP Diaz. Lynch is a prospect and not an “opener”. He will go as far as he can. He is a top 100 prospect (63) and is KC’s 3rd ranked prospect. SDP Diaz is a reliever so this will be more of a bullpen / “opener” type situation.