Notes: ATL and WSH are playing a doubleheader and the pitchers are not yet available so there are no lines to be made yet. Found the line in MIL and CHC interesting. I show MIL with Woodruff a -127 FAV and Bookmaker has Hendricks -115. It creates 42 basis points of variance which is 8.6% EV+ Edge! The NYM are again high and likely to be that for a bit as my model rates them probably too many wins. Indicates false value on them against Nola. Noticed that ARI with Bumgarner was a FAV with my model yet a dog at Bookmaker. There are 34basis points of variance or 7.26% EV+ Edge. Not sure how trusting I am with Bumgarner these days. Seems like he gets rocked every time he throws!
In this episode I go over early season betting strategy correlating with Game Score and Starting pitchers. It is a good segment!
Reviewing the lines for 04/06, these are my notes.
My model suggests the NY Mets are better than the books think they are. This primarily comes from the FanGraphs projected win percentage. I am not all in on the model just yet. The Mets will have only played one game thus far. I do not believe they are winning the NL East by the margins Fangraphs indicates, thus I am expecting an adjustment that I will have to make. However, those adjustments do not happen this early. Need to let things play out some, but be cautious with my line regarding the Mets.
NYY Cole is -300 yet my model says -400! The value there but I am never paying those prices. SD showing value with Darvish. 54 basis points. Sanchez is that Aaron Sanchez thought to be washed a year or two ago. Again a large favorite that I have no interest in paying the price to get. I thought the TB line came out interesting. Glasnow is -145 with books and the model says -130 showing 15 basis points of value to BOS.
MIL showing as a Webbie Favorite and an underdog at the books. That is 25 basis points of value or a 5.56% EV+ edge. An easy way to get EV+ edge very close to the accurate number is to use a 2.25% EV+ edge for every 10 basis points of variance. This will give you some feel for what you see if I don’t comment on something. MIA is not getting in respect from the books showing a dog with Alcantara throwing against STL Gant. TOR only -125 against TEX who is competing for the worst team in MLB when my model suggests -142.
When analyzing the lines, make sure to support your thoughts, theories, and analysis. Don’t just blindly wager. There may be something that is creating the variances the models don’t pick up. Research to support your synopsis then fire away!
As a handicapper, the worst part of any season is the start. More often than not; experience, good fortune, and carryover data from the prior year will get you through. This season is my worst start ever. The previous season may have affected my models more than anticipated. I own my results and stand by my methods. Handicappers use data to develop models and for opinions. Whether the model runs good or bad, the opinion is the handicappers alone.
Each week goes by and games become records. These records then become data, then the model gets better. For me, there are several turning points to start a season. The first one comes when I can use techniques for starting pitchers establishing their mean average performance to start the year. This process starts when a pitcher makes his 2nd start. It can carry into the 4th start but is a current viable resource for the current season.
Another is when we get a week’s worth of hitting results. I rarely look at individual stats for players and use team data as much as possible, Batting data starts to become relevant after a week worth of numbers. Timeframes are important. Getting enough data but current data is tricky. My models use advanced metrics from various timeframes with hitting results quickly approaching.
Other thresholds will include bullpen data, further starting pitcher data, with team trend and umpire trend data following. MLB is a long daily grind. Of course, winning helps get through the days nicely. However, I don’t win every day nor every week. I would like to feel bad for losing streaks but I have to shrug them off. As long as I am not off process or plan, which I can make adjustments to, then the mindset is more important. Staying confident while losing is a unique trait yet one that is necessary to win long term. I work on this months ahead of the season. I write preview guides and betting guides. The results come from staying to your plan and not overreacting to situations that are not going your way.
I win a lot and can lose a lot. It is all part of the journey that makes for a betting season. I rehash my wagers, strategies, and process. Learn to make adjustments where necessary. Whether winning or losing, my emotions are not far apart. This is business for me. I don’t do this to lose and there are not many or any that put in the work as I do. Currently, I could throw darts at a schedule of games and win more than I have for the first several days. Not a good spot or look, but the good news is coming. Results tend to be cyclical so although not fun, getting the bad ones out of the way leads to getting more good ones.
Thanks for following along. Hope to get on track soon. Be ready to ride hot as much as hate to be cold.
New match ups and series on Monday. Interesting in my mid will be STL/MIA, NYM/PHI, MIL/CHC, and HOU/LAA. New York Mets will play their 1st game Monday and have favorable opening pitching matchup. DeGrom opens for NYM because they haven’t been able to play due the WSH Covid issues. He gets to face the PHI #4 in Matt Moore and the line reflects it. PHI off sweep of ATL will now get NYM (tough open for them).
Notes: My numbers showed CLE in pick’em scenario with KC. I like KC and their starter in this game but I did take note that CLE was at least 50-50 with my model. MIL is a standout variance. Bookmaker has CHC -120 and my model has MIL -119. CHC is off a 2-1 series vs PIT which most team would be and MIL is off 1-2 series with MIN. Quality of pitching seen in that series was very high. Another one I had a reaction too was LAA . Line opened at -125 but my model suggests it should be -106. HOU off a 4 game sweep of OAK and scoring a ton of runs. LAA off a hard fought series with CHW. I expected Quintana to be a value, but it is opposite. Need to look into those situations.
Notes for Easter based on lines. CJC remains a team with a large fan base drawing inflated lines. You need to stomach wagering on the PIT though. CHC Davies -170 @ Bookmaker. My lines show -133 creating 37 basis points edge to PIT or 7.81% EV+ edge. LAA with Ohtani is also showing a 21 basis points inflated line, which creates a 4.75% EV+ edge to CHW.
Every Sunday in MLB, not just Easter Sunday, is it’s own entity. MLB managers like to rest players (often catchers) as they come of Saturday night games and travel on Monday. The lineups are always in question on Sunday. Another issue is the travel for the team moving on to a new city. There are many times where teams have to catch a flight by a certain time. They have already checked out of their hotels need to be at the airport in time to make the flight. You will often see aggressive swings and early in the at-bats. Instead of trying to wear down a pitcher, the idea is to pressure him by being aggressive, swinging early and often. This many times shortens a game allowing for airport ride to be on time. However, if the pitcher is throwing well, he adapts to that strategy and uses the aggressiveness against the batters thus gets through innings without having to work hard! Make sure to tie in all things when not just line variances.
The Webb Report is on the VSX Digital Network vsxdigitalsportsnetwork.com
Today’s wagering selections can be found at http://www.MLB-Daily.com and click the tab Todays Slate. The wagers are posted there every day! I post them in a Telegram group and provide audio analysis. If interested the link is https://t.me/mlbdaily. Stay tuned to this site or subscribe to get the Webb Report on the VSX Digital Network! It is a daily show that covers all things baseball!
For MLB, Many times lines open at inflated numbers as books are looking to set lines by the movement of them prior to the day of the game. These are referred to as overnight lines. We should be careful betting on these numbers because they are designed to be a safety blanket for the book. We still want EV+ edges so don’t waver from that. My lines are starting to vary from the book which is good. As the pitching matchups are getting convoluted by good pitchers mixed with bad ones, the books are struggling to figure out where the line should be. Hopefully, I have done enough homework to gain an edge in these weaker pitcher outings.
A couple of noteworthy findings. I have 3 games where my favorites are dogs! This is good news! We get to look into betting favorites at dog prices! I have ATL Morton, CIN Mahle, and MIN Berrios slight FAV and they are all listed as dogs. Morton and Berrios provide the best value in these spots. It also appears the books are not favoring either LAD or SD like I do. They are big favorites, but I have them bigger one. Will need to look into wagering spots for big favs. HOU McCullers is only -125 vs OAK Irvin. Cole Irvin is a temporary 5th starter as Puk and Jeffries were sent out for more work. Irvin has made only 3 MLB starts in his career. He has pitched in 19 games so he is a spot starter at best. He pitched for PHI the last 2 seasons. He has a career FIP of 5.09, xFIP of 4.98and SIERA 4.87. He is not a big strike out guy with 17.2% career numbers. Look for him to like an opener and OAK to have a bullpen day which squarely puts HOU in the picture as play with EV+ value. My other findings are that many large favorites are 20 basis points too high like NYY, CLE, CHC, and BOS. These lines should reopen 10 basis points lower in the morning. Here is a spot where betting the overnight line brings CLV (closing line value) edges. I am not going to die if a miss a couple basis of CLV but I am not opposed to getting the best of it either. I am not a big dog hinter that way, so it doesn’t play into my approach or planning.