MLB Daily

RECAP: I went 2-1 yesterday for plus .63 units. The winners were TOR Gausman and MIN Ryan, but we had to sweat out both games. The loser was CHW Cease. The season now is 21-21 and minus 2.07 units.

Today’s first selection is in DET as I select the visiting Rockies and Senzatela. Rotation #929 Senzatela +138. COL will oppose DET Skubal. COL comes into this game with the #5 offense over the last seven days, and they are #8 vs. LHP. Their offense is an edge as DET ranks #23 with only Grossman and Torkelson as successful batters. COL’s successful batters list includes CJ Cron (who dominates), Blackmon, Connor Joe, and Alan Trejo. They also three batters above 0 OFF War but not above 1.0 OFF War which is how I am looking at “successful batters” or “hot hitters.” DET SP Skubal has thrown two good starts and is ripe for a regression start, and vice versa is true for COL Senzatela. He has thrown an average and a poor game, so he is progression ripe. COL is off of a winning home series against PHI, so I like them to carry over that momentum in game one. Webbie Odds has COL with a little value showing COL +127.

My next selection is in MIN where I again try to “wake up” the CHW! There is just too much value showing on CHW today as Kopech is +100 and Webbie Odds says he is a favorite of -120. The selection then is rotation #921 CHW Kopech +100. This is a bit unusual of a choice as CHW is the #29 offense in baseball (there are only 30 teams). I like to play against poor offensive teams. In this case, MIN is the 18th ranked offense so they are in the bottom half but not near last. Where this became close was in successful hitter lists, CHW has an edge in the bullpen, plus they have the better starting pitcher. CHW has two hitters Gavin Sheets and Adam Engel on their batters list. MIN has only one, Nick Gordon. Nothing against Gordon, but he is not the stir to the drink in MIN. I believe that the CHW offensive deficiency is mitigated by MIN offense deficiency. The CHW bullpen ranks 9th whereas MIN ranks 28th. If this is a close game, CHW should have the edge in the later innings. Then there is the matchup of Kopech vs Ober. Ober is not a strikeout pitcher nor does he get groundballs. He will allow plenty of contact which should be right up CHW’s alley.

My last selection today is in SEA where I will be playing the home team. Rotation #926 FLexen -126. SEA is the #1 offense in the last 7 days and faces a starting pitcher in KC Keller who is regression ripe. Keller’s first two starts have both been stellar. He has had poor success against SEA in three tries against them. He is 0-2 with a 5.51 ERA. So far Flexen has been average so he is progression ripe and should have success against KC’s 24th ranked offense. There is a big offensive edge there and a reversal of fortune expectations for the pitchers. KC has had a good bullpen to date so far ranking #3 but SEA’s in 10th so I will take my chances here with the home team full game as opposed to a first five innings wager.

NOTE: There is no sportsbook with odds for SFG/WSH game as WOOD is not a listed pitcher yet. It may change in the morning. Nice weekend series with MIL/PHI, HOU/TOR, and LAD/SD!

Webbie Odds likes MIL and Peralta, ATL and Wright, CHW and Kopech, NYM and Peterson more than CIRCA does. Webbie Odds thinks CIRCA likes TB Kluber and LAD Urias too much.

RECAP: Oh, yesterday was a day. I go 0-4 -4.2 units, and officially now 19-20 and -2.70 units on the season! ATL was just the wrong side, COL blows a lead, OAK loses on an error and no offense, and CHW 2nd game played their backups! It was just not a day for me! On to today!

My first selection is in CLE start time is 1:10. I played on rotation #959 CHW CEASE -137. Here we get CHW off a doubleheader loss with the better pitcher. My odds said -181, so I think there is significant value here. A closer look at CLE Plesac indicates he has been very “lucky” on the season. The batting average against him is .233, and the BABIP is .235. He has been lucky to have balls batted in play average, not to raise very much over the batting average; that happens when more batted balls are hit to fielders than holes where fielders aren’t. It also is not sustainable, indicating this will reverse the trend at some point, and batters will find more success. He has also had trouble against the CHW lineup as they hit .338 against him.

My following selection is in BOS, where I played on rotation #963 TOR GAUSMAN -107. This play has more to do with BOS Houck not being a #1 type starter, which puts value onto TOR. Houck has not faced TOR too often, only 22 at-bats, and has done well in that short amount of opportunities. However, there are chinks in the armor here. Houck has predictive metrics such as SIERA at 5.22. He also has a low K/9 rate of 7 and a high BB/9 of 6. It means that balls will be in play, and the expectations are reasonable that TOR will have success scoring runs. HE also has low swing and chase and swing and miss rates. Gausman has fared well in his history against the BOS lineup. The matchup favors TOR.

My final selection is in KC, where I chose rotation #965 MIN RYAN -128. The play is more about playing opposed to KC Greinke. He is an average pitcher these days and already has thrown two of those games, indicating a poor one is on the way. His xFIP and SIERA metrics are over 5.00, and like above, he has been fortunate to have batted balls hit to fielders. His batting average against is .250, and his BABIP avg is .256. MIN has the better offense, too, even though they have not been explosive. KC batters have not seen MIN Ryan, so there is an inherent edge there.

Lastly, there is a situational edge to all of these games. Teams that play day games on Thursday getaway days where they are playing on the road on Friday, and are home dogs on Thursday, are 5-20 SU.

NOTES: DET Pineda is making his 1st start off the IL. STL Hicks was their 100mph closer and is now a starter.

RECAP: Only one game yesterday and couldn’t get PHI to the pay window! They took the lead, scored in the 6th to take the lead, then the bullpen gave up a 3-run homer so it is a 0-1 -130 unit day. Season now 19-16 +1.50 units

I have a big board today and limited availability for write-ups so I will just list the selections today.

3:10 #904 COL Marquez +105

3:10 #905 ATL Morton +115

6:10 #915 CHW Lambert +107

6:07 #928 OAK Jeffries -120

NOTES: CHW / CLE had their games pushed back again ad will have a doubleheader if weather permits. Both Keuchel and Bieber were supposed to start two nights ago. It is possible to see these two still pitch but in different time slots. STL Mikolas is not confirmed so there may be a change for STL.

ATL is getting no love from sportsbooks as WEBBIE ODDS thinks Morton should be a very small favorite or at least pick’em against the Dodgers and Gonsolin. LAA Ohtani getting ga TON of love for LAA against HOU. The SF / NYM series has had nothing but great pitching and it continues again today with SF Rodon versus NYM Bassitt. The same can be said for NYY Severino. An interesting matchup in SEA with two good young pitchers.

RECAP: Rough day! Really liked LAA yesterday but would likely not have played at all if I saw the lineups prior to the game. I knew Trout would not play, but Rendon was a scratch too (not sure how close to game time so may not have mattered) meaning that we should not be backing the Angels without Trout or Rendon. On top of that, HOU activated a played Yordan Alvarez who promptly hit 2 HRs in the game. Anyway, my thoughts did not go as planned and I lost 1.58 units on this one selection. I also was beaten in the LAD game making my day 0-3 -2.67 units. Season stands at 19-15 + 2.80 units.

I only have one selection today despite all the games available. I like rotation #959 PHI GIBSON -130. The idea here is that PHI has the better pitcher based on metrics, throws well in COL, throws well vs COL lineup, and has a backend that is better (yes, I know). The Rockies have been hot with the sticks but have not faired well against Gibson. They have batted 52 times with only 7 hits for a .120 avg. The xWOBA measure (forecast of weighted on base) is a significant edge to Gibson as his .205 is way better than COL Freeland’s .341. Gibson has a FIP of 2.87 vs COL lineup which means he controls the outs whereas Freeland has a FIP of 6.77 against PHI! You can use FIP in relation to ERA so we can certainly see there is value in Gibson. WEBBIE ODDS says this game should be PHI -147 so we are getting some EV+ return. It would be a better play if PHI were hitting on all cylinders, but Harper and Castellanos are hitting well. Freeland is a lefty so maybe this is the day PHI comes alive with life with the bats as they are #4 wRC+ 151 vs lefties. It means they are 51% better than average.

The above chart illustrates the importance of velocity. The red areas are showing high rates of SwStr%. Swing Strike percentages are pitches thrown in the strike zone that are swung at but missed. In this illustration, the more velocity a pitcher throws with, the more swing and miss he is going to have. Let’s look at a couple of concerns regarding velocity dropping off from pitchers in 2022. These pitchers should be a concern especially if they end up in the blue areas across the spin rate spectrum. The pitchers on this list are MIN Dylan Bundy, MIN Sonny Gray, CHC Drew Smyly, CLE Cal Quantrill, CLE Aaron Civale, and CLE Shane Bieber. The furthest left columns are the avg velocity in 2022 and the variation from 2021. All the highlighted pitchers are throwing at 90.2 mph or less and have dropped in velocity at least 1.5 mph from 2021.

MIN Dylan Bundy should be in trouble, however, he has discovered how to make the ball move vertically. His velocity is in the “danger zone” (<90 mph) but has good results in his two starts. In the chart below we will see the vertical movement for MIN pitchers. Notice Bundy leads the staff with 10.7. His rank in all of MLB is 8th! It means he has found a velocity that actually helps him get outs because the ball moves much more! Also, take notice of Sonny Gray (also on our list above). His movement is only 7.7 which ranks 119th. He is of major concern and we should be looking to wager against him!

A way to verify this would be to look at xFIP and SIERA metrics. They are predictive indicators for the pitcher’s upcoming results. In this chart, we see again, Gray with very high xFIP and SIERA values and Bundy with much lower ones. These metrics confirm there is not an issue with Bundy but there is with Gray.

By using the same xFIP and SIERA results for CLE pitchers (Bieber, Quantrill, and Civale) we should be able to forecast similar projections. Below is the CLE graph.

Here we see Bieber is in line with a normal to better than average performance regarding xFIP and SIERA. He is not a concern at this point. However, both Quantrill and Civale go on the wager against list. Civale has an xFIP of 5.02 and Quantrill is almost at 6.00 for both! I would also suggest that CHC Smyly should be viewed as the verdict is still out. His predictive measures are good, but he has poor verticle movement. He is excelling at horizontal movement.

NOTE: The makeup games in WSH and NYM do not have a CIRCA posted odds as of yet and in OAK, there is no listed pitcher for BAL. Lastly, it is possible that the nightcap in WSH will not have Adon pitching, he is not confirmed yet.

RECAP: I won one and lost one yesterday. I played the NYY -1.5 -115 and they left the bats in the bat rack! I also went back to the well with LAA -109 and they came through. Overall, I lost .15 units of juice. This makes the season total now 19-12 +5.57 units.

Today I have two selections. The first is in Houston for the home opener of the Astros. They will play LAA and throw Garica. LAA will throw Lorenzen. It is a long wait for the HOU home opener as they played 9 away games to start the season. We will have seen these two play against each other already. HOU won 3 of 4 games on opening weekend. NOTE: Lorenzen was not seen by HOU in that series. HOU batters have only had 10 at-bats total against him. This does not bode well as HOU is also 26th on offense right now. Certainly, that will not hold through the entire season, but we are not wagering some time in June, this is April and they are not hitting. Advantage LAA. One of my favorite handicapping angles is where a pitcher is facing the same team he faced during his last start. This is the case for Garia. In these spots, more often than not, it is better to assume the pitcher will do a reversal of his last performance. For Garica, he threw a game score of 58 which is near ace-like. We should expect regression today. The LAA batters have had success vs Garcia too which helps to further extend the angle to their side. I know there is a low chance of Mike Trout playing tonight but he only has 3 at-bats ve Garcia not that I wouldn’t want him playing if he could. The Angels are #2 in all of MLB on offense entering this game. I like the idea they come off a 1st away series win against TEX with a little bit of “we need to show HOU we can do this” kind of attitude. I am playing this two ways. First, rotation# 917 LAA F5 +.05 -108 for a full unit and F5 Moneyline +144 for a half unit.

The second selection is also out west. We see ATL going to play LAD where Kershaw matches up against Ynoa. The odds are showing LAD -208 which is too high. We need to see how to get an ATL wager. First, Kershaw is off a no-hitter performance for the seven innings he threw last time out. Another great handicapping angel is to wager against pitchers off their no-hit starts or near no-hit starts. Sunde 2019, Kershaw has only thrown against ATL (regular season) twice. In those games, he has thrown 12.67 innings allowing 17 hits and 9 runs. His game score avg is 43.5. This bodes well and is supportive of the aforementioned angle. LAD is the #1 offensive team in baseball right now so I do not like betting against that! However, LAD has not seen Ynoa and he is off of a poor start. It means we should see a progression from him. Trea Turner is the only Dodger with at-bats (9) against Ynoa and he has 2 hits for a .222 avg. I expect ATL to be very competitive tonight. The wager I played is rotation #911 +1.5RL -109.