What is top-down wagering?
Top-down wagering is finding +EV betting spots by using variation in spreads or odds listed by sportsbooks. The premise to allow the sportsbooks to set the odds (no handicapping necessary), then the bettor wagers on the spots with the best positive variance. There will be a quantified percentage edge. If you make these types of wagers hundreds of times, one can expect to have positive outcomes. The image below is an example of this.
This is an odds chart of 02/14 College Basketball. We can see several sportsbooks listed at the top including Circa, Bookmaker, and Pinnacle. We can see the odds listed for the games in the snipet. Some of the spreads are seperated by a half point and some of odds vary as well. The goal is to look at the column listed as Best Line. We are looking for “green” highlighted percentages. The game South Carolina @ Auburn and Connecticut @ DePaul fit for what we are looking for. The green highlighted percentage of +2.9% in the Auburn game is a +EV spot for South Carolina. The best line is +12 -110. The best line is then compared to the “no vig” line. In this case, Unabated generates a fair line and is listed as Unabated line. The variance being a positive expected return of 2.9%. In this case, Ceasar’s Sportsbook has an inflated line of +12 where the “no vig” line is +11, while others are +11.5 but -115. We should then wager through Ceasar’s with the +12! If you are able to identify these spots and make wagers at these sportsbooks, you will be making smart / good bets (+EV expectation). The other example there is Connecticut -22.5 -124 while the “no vig” line is -24.5 +100. Again here there is now an +EV 2.2%. These are both spots to fire away at. This is just a snipet of the College basketball odds screen regarding the game spread, however, the same applies to the total, and to NBA or NHL. There could be many or just a few spots like this daily.
The main issues here is to have the ability to wager on them. For this to occur, you must have multiple sportsbooks in your portfolio. These could be limited to you based on where you live or just limited based on the amount of bankroll you have, but to take advantage, you must have many places to make a wager. The advice is to have as many accounts as possible so you are consistenly taking advanage of these spots. Why would you want to wager into a worse line or worse odds when opening a new account could mean getting the best odds? These sportsbooks typically want your business and want you to open accounts. There are many ways to fund them but pay close attention to the promotions they offer. It is not uncommon for a sportsbook to match your funds up to a certain dollar amount. Take advantage of those offers to help fund multiple accounts whenever possible.
Top-down wagering is not handicapping at all! It is the essence of what is meant when you hear people say, “I bet numbers, not teams.” In fact, many of these bettors do not know anything about the teams nor the players. They are just betting +EV spots only that are based on the variance of the odds. It is a good practice to get in the habit of. I would advise utilizing the strategy even if you are known to handicap the teams and players. Let me put it this way. There is a great chance of being a succesful sports bettor if you only make good bets. You can not make good bets until you know what they are. You now know what most people use as a definition of +EV bets. Get used to making +EV bets on a consistent basis. You do not need to know the sport, team, nor players to win. I will also say that once you have learned this strategy thoroughly, you can then expand your +EV knowledge into other avenues to find more spots to make good bets. For now, learn this as a mainstay strategy then we can expand into other areas. I will cover this in later areas.