Starting pitchers have the most effect on each game and certainly on the odds for them. I use predictive data whenever possible, as I want to know what to expect today, not what was accomplished yesterday. There are brand new data points I am using this season. It is regarding pitch modeling. The premise is to qualify a pitcher’s arsenal and ability to locate those pitches compared to others. How a ball moves, spins, and is located reduces the batter’s ability to make solid contact. These new data points are called Pitcher+ and Stuff+. They are suitable forecast measures because they will reflect in the more common data like FIP, ERA, and BB/K ratio as these results improve or decline.
STUFF+ measures pitch characteristics, including release point, velocity, vertical and horizontal movement, and spin rate. The result indicates whether a pitcher has great pitches or not.
PITCHER+ encapsulates everything STUFF+ does and includes two other essential components: location and batter handedness. Thus, we can see everything a pitcher has to offer.
Using these stats, we can understand whether a pitcher is dominant, why he is dominant, or whether he is solely reliant on his ability to pinpoint accurately where he throws the ball. I wouldn’t say this is a cause for wager alone. However, I would say it will further illustrate certain expectations or characteristics a game may have. For example, if a soft tosser had a great game last time out and there is a feeling he will be less likely to duplicate that performance today, we can use these tools to see what to expect from him. It is predictive. If a soft tosser is shown to miss his spots, he then becomes hittable and a trainwreck to support in a wager. But he becomes a great candidate to bet against!