NOTES: Lot’s of variance in today’s slate of games! My model has 2 wrong team favorites (COL, STL) and there are 8 games where the variance is at least 20 basis points today.
I am still intrigued that the NYM are always more with my model so far, however, I must say that it is paramount to look deeper into their game today. NYM’s basic premise will be an above .500 team at season’s end and STL will likely be a .500 team, so NYM are the better team. NYM throwing Stroman, their 2nd best pitcher against Kim, is equivalent to Wainwright in projected WAR. Would you consider Wainwright a fav over Stroman? Me either.
I do not agree with the large variance of SFG over COL today. I can’t see SFG Webb being an away fav of -124. If it were a home game, that’s a different conversation. The primary reasoning for this is COL projects to be a .401 win percentage team or 65 wins (only the Tigers project worse). SFG is a .500 team so they are much better and COL Gray does not narrow that gap in quality enough. I still think Webb is not an away fav pitcher and the “pickem” line is accurate.
NYY Montgomery is only a -135 vs HOU Garcia. My model suggests a -159 is more accurate. This is a game to look into. Great atmosphere last night. Montgomery is in the NYY rotation and Garcia is a fill in to the HOU rotation. Worth checking into.
MIA has been getting some love for the bookmakers vs ARI. Yes, MIA has had the better pitching matchups but not to the degree of being -145 or -150 FAV. MIA can pitch, but they also are going to be the last place NL East team! ARI has 15 consecutive game with a HR! Not getting enough respect for the odd’s makers.
TBR are again using an opener. Kittredge is starting today, but he is the “bulk” innings pitcher. When handicapping the Rays, try to find out who that pitcher will be because he is the guy you want to use as the primary “starter”. Todays, it’s Yarbrough coming in after Kittredge.