If you were to look up “What is a good bet?” in a dictionary, the answer would come back with this. According to Collins, the definition of a good bet is this, “If you say that it is a good bet or a safe bet that something is true or will happen, you are saying that it is extremely likely to be true or to happen.” This makes perfect sense, yet we don’t always think this way about gambling.
The inference is that something true will happen, which is a probability. There are ways to calculate probabilities in the gambling world. This means that we do have a way to define a good bet. Sportsbooks set odds based on probability. Our job is only to wager where the probabilities favor us (the bettors). This means we need ways to define probability. There is the actual probability of an event, which we will call the “no vig” odds. There are the sportsbook probabilities, which are shaded with their vig. There is the market that bets into these probabilities and moves the odds. However, these moves need to be developed in detail as odds move for various reasons like injuries, weather, syndicates, and more. Odds can move on perception, too. If we as bettors can establish “no vig” odds of probability, we then can compare those odds of the various sportsbooks and select the games with odds that favor the bettor as the ones to wager on. This is called making good bets, or in today’s vernacular, this is known as +EV (extra value added). Our goal is to make as many and +EV wagers as we can. This formula only makes sense because why would we want to wager on games where the sportsbook has better odds? This happens every day, and it happens all the time. The primary reason is not knowing what a +EV bet is.
I wrote a brief article on my website regarding top-down wagering (link: https://mlb-daily.com/sports-gambling-info/). A quick summary here is that sportsbooks have numerous odds and line variances. The simple solution is to compare the “no vig” odds to all the sportsbooks and make wagers where there is positive variance. This is the phrase’s definition, “I bet numbers, not teams.” Wagering using this format allows +EV spots to be defined. The odds identify these spots, not the players or the teams. The people making these wagers often know little about the teams they are wagering on or the sport. They are only wagering where there is a better probability in their favor than the one the sportsbook has. The method is tremendously successful, and I advise using it entirely.
I would also say that there are also bettors who “originate.” This means they make their odds and numbers. If they are very good at making their numbers, they will have an odds comparison of their numbers to the sportsbook numbers. This means there will be more +EV spots because the originators’ odds will have value compared to the sportsbooks’. We need to have as many good bet spots as possible. Every one of these +EV situations will come with a percentage of edge over the sportsbook. We can sort them by most considerable variance to smallest or however we like, but make sure to wager on these edges! These are the magic bullets of sports wagering.
You will hear handicappers talk about situations, trends, data, history, and more to make their wagers. A handicapper will not tell you their +EV edge because they don’t know how to calculate it or even believe it is essential. It is not wrong to handicap teams and players, but those handicaps must be turned into edges! It is a certainty that handicapping is speculative and without the ability to be +EV as a standalone process. Suppose you can utilize handicapping skills as deciding factors such as unit size, cutting down wager list prospects, or even pushing you onto a slight edge because of the spot. In that case, you are utilizing handicapping properly. I would also say that wagering on strong handicapping opinions, even though they might be -EVs, can be acceptable only in minor circumstances. An example might be where there are only a handful of games to wager that day, and none of them turn out to be +EV spots, yet there is a game with terrific data. Maybe it is okay to make a small wager there to have action, but remember, if you make -EV(negative expected value), then you are not expecting to win this wager!
An example of what a good bet looks like. I am attaching an odds screen with a no-vig line.
The above is from Unabated. The no vig line is the furthest to the right. In this game, Purdue is at Ohio State in college basketball. The “true” probability is Ohio St +7.5 -101. MGM offered this with Ohio St +8.5 -105. You can see the green highlighted percentage of +6.1%. This is the +EV (+6.1% expected value) we want to wager on. It happens that Ohio St not only covered the spread of +8.5, but they won the game outright! This is what is meant by making a good bet! There was a measured percentage edge of variance where we know we have the advantage. We will not have that advantage at every sportsbook, so it is essential to have many options. We can now identify a good bet and then exploit our edge. If we make wagers, we should only make wagers where we expect positive value in return.
The Webbie Odds is an example of an originator creating lines and using them to a sharp book line. For instance, in this case, ATL was -195, and Webbie Odds was -265. The variance was +6.49% to ATL. This creates another spot with measured +EV regardless of the shopping sportsbook odds to each other. We are now using an originator number, so we can shop that to any sportsbook, not needing nearly as many places to wager.
I think there are very few people to trust as an originator. Essentially, we say that number is better than the sportsbook’s numbers. If you have one or use mine, realize that this is tricky to be right with. It is not hard to make numbers. Making numbers that you can wager on is another thing. Follow originators! Find out if you can use their numbers.
Okay, now comes the big statement. Don’t make losing bets! Only make bets that win! I know this is impossible, but you can get focused on betting! You need to make winning bets and to do that; you need to make +EV wagers. Get serious about your betting strategy. You should know what the odds of your bet winning are. It would help if you listed wagers, like a daily portfolio, that will accomplish a target or a goal. Stop mindlessly betting without planning or strategizing your work. It doesn’t always work out in our favor. However, I assure you it will work out more often than you have been able to accomplish to this point.
Keep an eye on my newly redesigned website (www.MLB-Daily.com). Here is and will be more information to make you a better bettor. There is undoubtedly a ton of baseball on the way!