This series between the Dodgers and the Padres will have alternate home teams, with the Padres being the home team in game one. As we set this line, neither team will have a home-field edge. A home-field edge is worth .20 or .25 to the line. So the first thing we do is determine the Dodgers and the Padres’ “power rating” and then adjust the game line based on the pitchers.
I use a blend of numbers to create what I believe is the actual strength of teams. I use the projections from FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus, and Base Runs of 2023. I utilize the Base Runs 2024 to adjust these numbers as the season progresses. The chart below shows the Dodgers with a .602 winning percentage and the Padres with a .508 winning percentage.
We will utilize a mathematical formula to determine the winning percentage for teams with a winning percentage of .602 and playing a team with one of .508. We can do this for any team as long as we know the expected winning percentages for each team. Once we do this math, the Dodgers should win a game vs the Padres 59.43% of the time. We can use an odds converter calculator to change the expected winning percentage (implied winning percentage) into a money line. The Dodgers’ winning probability is 59.43%, which is -146 on the money line. We have to utilize the starting pitchers, LAD Tyler Glasnow and SD Yu Darvish. We will either add to the line, making the Dodgers more of a favorite or take away from the line based on whether Glasnow is better than Darvish.
I utilize two projection systems for this. These companies are only doing projections based on regression modeling. I can use the metric WAR for this comparison as it is designed for this purpose. WAR is Wins Above Replacement. It means that we can compare players in terms of wins. Because this is related to wins, we can convert the differences into winning percentages, adding or subtracting to the base power rating number and getting an adjusted line based on the pitchers. FanGraphs lists Streamer and Zips projections. I believe Streamer is more accurate, but I average the two to get a WAR number for the player. In this case, Glasnow has a 3.7 Streamer projected WAR and a 3.0 Zips. Darvish has a 2.6 Streamer projected WAR and 2.5 Zips. The average total for each pitcher is Glasnow 3.35 and Darvish 2.55, so we can see that Glasnow is the better pitcher. See the following chart.
Generally, we think of a starting rotation as five starting pitchers. We know that there are going to be ten or so to make starts, but that is a non-determined number. Five is what all teams would use if they could. We will use the number five. It is essential because a starting pitcher doesn’t play every day; in theory, he plays every 6th day. For proper math, we need to take each WAR number and multiply it by five. In this case, Glasnow becomes 16.75 and Darvish 12.75. This becomes their total worth to their team regarding wins above replacement. We can divide that number by 162 games because we are playing only this one. So for Galsnow, we get 0.705, and for Darvish, 0.587. We will add those percentages to the .602 Dodgers winning percentage and the .508 Padres winning percentage. Then, we will take the new winning probabilities and put them into the formula. We now get a new winning percentage. The Dodgers will win this game with Glasnow pitching against Darvish 62.78% of the time, which equates to -169 on the money line. In this game, there is no home-field edge to apply. However, if this were a home game in LA, the Dodgers would be expected to win 65.28% of the time with a line of -188. If it were in San Diego, the Dodgers would be expected to win 60.28% of the time, making a line of -152.
I believe this is the best way to make a line. I do this for every game. This is how Webbie Odds are created. The purpose is to get the most accurate line based on the teams and the pitchers. We then compare this line to the actual sportsbook line to find value. In this case, I have only seen one line for this game. DraftKings has posted a Dodgers -198.
Based on this, there is value in the Padres! That does not mean going out and playing the Padres, but I would not pay for the Dodgers. I expect this to be the case in most Dodger games this season. You will be paying a “Dodger tax” for every game they play. It will be better to play against them than to play on them. This is the type of game you may want to play when there is a slate of games. You would play a few dogs and a few favorites with the idea that you only need one of the dogs to win. I would want more value in this game. It shows that a wager on the Dodgers is a -EV 5.51%, and a Padre’s wager is a -1.74%. We are looking for positive EV situations to wager on.
A couple of critical points. We do not factor in the everyday players being in or out of the lineup. They do not have that much impact on a game-to-game basis and will be accounted for in the projected win numbers if they are out for an extended period. This is an important note. Every team will win 50 games, and every team will lose 50 games. It doesn’t matter how good or bad they are; that statement will hold. Do not be afraid to pick a bad team to win or a good team to lose!