Recap from SAT: I went 3-0 as SEA/MIN stayed Under in the F5, PHI covered 0.5 F5, and SD wins with late scoring to cover the RL in ARI. The prop bets went 0-2 but were close. Both pitchers needed 4.5 Ks and ended with 4 each. Just needed them to pitch one more inning each! 0-2 for the props. 3 units won and props lost 1 unit (half a unit on them) for a 2 unit winning day in total.
For the season to date: I am 6-2 and +3.64 Units. The props are 0-2 -1 unit so the total is +2.64 units.
On to SUNDAY 04/10 selections. Again there is a very difficult schedule to navigate. Once the teams move on to their next cities this trend may not continue but for now, we still need to be creative to get some action on these games.
My first selection is rotation #906 St. Louis First 5 RL -0.5 -135. St.Louis is off to go start regarding their potent offense. They are currently 3rd in runs scored with 15 and 2nd in sabermetrics stat OFF with 7.2. The wind in St. Louis today is blowing down the line out to the left-field at 18-20mph. This will aid the offense. PIT Bryse Wilson gets the start and he sets up well for the STL offense. His xFIP 4.96 and SIERA 5.29 are 2nd highest total for pitchers today. He has a low strikeout rate, low groundball rate, and low swing and miss rate. It means balls will be in play. He has a high hard-hit rate. He has not faced STL much but when he did last season, it did not go well. He threw 4 innings allowing 8 hits and 5 runs. The STL lineup has batted 29 times getting11 hits against him. Steven Matz will face the Pirates. He was an American League pitcher last season but played in the National League prior to that so he at least had some experience against them. The PIT lineup has batted 26 times against him getting only 6 hits with only 1 extra base hit. I like STL to continue their strong offensive start today against PIT.
My second selection is rotation #913 San Diego RL -1.5 -108. My partner Jeff always says “If I wasn’t riding the trend at the beginning, I am not jumping on in the middle”. We are on the trend in the beginning and riding it until it ends. In this case, the trend is the poor offense of ARI. ARI is the 29th out of 30 teams to start and has scored only 6 runs. All be it that the SD offense has not exploded either. Today though ARI will have another mismatched pitching disadvantage as SD Blake Snell is much better than ARI Smith. SD should get some help on offense too as Smith has command issues with a BB rate of 9.19 in 9 innings! I like SD to have a bigger offensive game and this one could the one. Caleb Smith threw twice vs SD last season. He threw 4.1 innings allowing 9 hits and 8 runs! He also gave SD 9 BBs in those games! ARI batters have 60at-bats vs SNell with only 6 hits for an average of .095. I do again like the full game here as the ARI bullpen is not special and it has been used up over the last couple of games.
Those are my only plays for Sunday.