MLB Daily

As this season opens, it is prudent to know some of the tips for a new season. Your bankroll is your most important asset, so don’t blow it all in the first couple weeks of an MLB season that is many months long! These tips may help guide you in the early going.

The pitchers are not ramped up yet. Many have not met the required number of pitches in the spring training games to make it through 5 innings. This creates a couple of situations. The 1st 5 inning bets can be a value primarily if you think there is a dominant edge for the starting pitcher. Another is that the bullpens will play a vital role in the outcomes of many of these early games. You MUST gain knowledge of the bullpen strengths for each team, then know the availability of its best pieces. A team with their best bullpen pieces will be an edge over those that don’t.

Every team will start with hope. Not one team has had a losing streak of 6 or 7 games, and no team has already been 10 games behind. This means that every team will be more optimistic about their chance to win games. They will be more competitive. The underdog is a good look early on. Every team will win 50 games, and every team will lose 50 games, so early on, some of these losing teams will have more competitive spirit than they will later.

Pitchers are generally ahead of hitters out of the gate. A better needs 70-100 at-bats to have his timing down and swing in rhythm. The spring will give these hitters roughly 50 at-bats, so these guys will take a couple of weeks to perform at regular season levels. This means the offense will be lacking as a whole. Looking at totals, the under is a better stance to shade than the over.

Early on, the weather is a primary concern. The teams have been in the warmth of Florida and Arizona for a month. They will travel back home to cold-weather cities and now play in 40-50-degree temperatures. Cold weather has a significant effect on baseball games. A general rule is that cold weather reduces run scoring.

There is plenty of media hype surrounding players and teams. My experience taught me that nothing is meaningful until the player or team manifests the hype. Prospects are just that until they become proven commodities. Treat them as such and adjust to their growth as the season progresses. Putting too much expectation on guys when they have yet to prove their worth is a terrible idea. Make them prove it before you place your money on them.

MLB often has minor injuries you may not know of in the early season. Guys will tweak a hamstring or have a “dead arm”. Pay close attention to the injured list for all the teams. Look for injury clusters at positions or pitching staffs. For example, the ST. Louis Cardinals now have 3 injuries to their outfielders. They called up a prospect this week, and he will play centerfield primarily because they are out of outfielders. This can happen to starting pitchers as well. The MIA Marlins find themselves in this predicament to start the season.

Lastly a note for you personally, become impatient about the input (seeds to plant) less the output (results). You can not control the results but can control how much you take in. Become obsessed with getting as much information as you can to learn the craft as best you can. The results will come. Worry about that, and I assure you you will get better!

Simply stated, EV+ betting involves making wagers where the outcome is expected to be positive. We should focus on these wagers based on either the odds from book to book (top-down) or odds compared to origination (bottom-up). My premium section displays these odds and provides EV+ opportunities daily! A sample of tomorrow is below.

The majority of the games are here. You will see “My probability,” which is Webbie Odds translated to probability and odds. You also see Listed Odds, in this case, Draft Kings. The formulas then create odds and vigorish to calculate true odds, giving us EV+ wagers. Anything shown in the black is an EV+ wager. This means we should expect a positive outcome if we bet 1000 times on a wager. We should not be wagering many, if any, red wagers. The red wagers are EV- suggesting we can make that bet 1000 times and expect a negative outcome! Making good bets is the principal and often overlooked aspect of sports wagering. We get too tied up in the handicap of the teams and players. We MUST make good bets. I will show you how.

I will also provide expert-level handicaps of the games. If you choose to wager on a game, you will know your chances and have all the information needed to make that wager. This is the purpose of this website! I will have some of this available in the free sections of the website, but the premium section provides this for almost every game! This is the kind of advice and opinions you should be impatient for. Get as much knowledge, math, and data as possible to make your best wager [possible every time.

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It is customary to list the season-long wagers to make. These are what I would bet on. Some of this is because I do not have access to Draft Kings; I can not wager. Those are the ones to make the playoff bets. I did bet the season wins and divisional winners. I also wagered all the player props

Also, here are my thoughts on the outcomes for each division.

AL East: Tampa Bay Rays

AL Central: Minnesota Twins

AL West: Houston Astros

NL East: Atlanta Braves

NL Central: Chicago Cubs

NL West: LA Dodgers

I expect the Houston Astros to win the American League and the Atlanta Braves to win the National League. I will take the Atlanta Braves to win the World Series

Starting to analyze the opening-day games requires checking the weather. This should be true for MLB every day, but at the start, we are looking for cold, rain, and wind. As science has proven, the ball travels slower, and the human body doesn’t perform as well when it is cold.

Using Kevin Roth’s forecasts for tomorrow’s games, we will see two games that may not go.

The MIL @ NYM game appears to be in jeopardy of being played and likely will not be played. The ATL @ PHI games seem to be a toss-up to be played. The LAA @ BAL game appears to be a GO, but maybe at a later start time.

All the remaining games on the schedule should have no issues being played!

When we handicap these games, we must consider the wind. If there are wins that get to 15mph, it will affect the ball. We seem to have several games tomorrow that are in this category. If the wind blows out, it is not automatic over the total scenario, but we should lean toward it. If it is blowing in, we should lean under.

The highlighted games match the highlighted forecasts of winds. SF/SDP already has a total of 7.5, and a wind is blowing in. Expect low run scoring in this one. STL/LAD has a total of 8.5, with winds blowing out. This one could have several runs scored. Both DET/CHW and MIN/KC have totals at 8. The winds are blowing out. Think about runs in these games. Also, MLB games this time of year average around 8 runs per game. As the temps rise, so does the run scoring. SF/SDP is already below average, and STL/LAD is above average. In your handicap, will DET, CHW, MIN, or KC offenses be able to produce above average against the pitcher they face? If so, they are good spots for over the total. I will have opinions on this soon in the game write-up section!

After a discussion about MLB-Daily pricing, I realized there was an error. There is no need to charge $200 for the entire season, even though that is a reasonable and fair price. MLB-Daily.com requires hours of work to accumulate and publish the information within it. I do WANT SIGNUPS! I want as many people as possible to visit the website for their daily wagering information. Every sign-up helps with the site’s costs!

As of this morning, I have changed the price of the one-time full-season payment from $200 to $150! This is a 50-dollar savings but a more competitive price. As stated above, this site is gaining views daily. As it grows, there are costs associated with it. I hope many of those who peruse the site will become subscribers. Subscribing does help, so I would appreciate it if anyone could pitch in in that regard.

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It’s the time when spring training is over and the season begins. It is time to see how teams stack up going into the season and then see how they change. Injuries, trades, call-ups, and such can affect how the early views of teams change. We will track all that here, but we need to start somewhere. This is how I see the teams starting off the 2024 season.

Starting pitchers have the most effect on each game and certainly on the odds for them. I use predictive data whenever possible, as I want to know what to expect today, not what was accomplished yesterday. There are brand new data points I am using this season. It is regarding pitch modeling. The premise is to qualify a pitcher’s arsenal and ability to locate those pitches compared to others. How a ball moves, spins, and is located reduces the batter’s ability to make solid contact. These new data points are called Pitcher+ and Stuff+. They are suitable forecast measures because they will reflect in the more common data like FIP, ERA, and BB/K ratio as these results improve or decline.

STUFF+ measures pitch characteristics, including release point, velocity, vertical and horizontal movement, and spin rate. The result indicates whether a pitcher has great pitches or not.

PITCHER+ encapsulates everything STUFF+ does and includes two other essential components: location and batter handedness. Thus, we can see everything a pitcher has to offer.

Using these stats, we can understand whether a pitcher is dominant, why he is dominant, or whether he is solely reliant on his ability to pinpoint accurately where he throws the ball. I wouldn’t say this is a cause for wager alone. However, I would say it will further illustrate certain expectations or characteristics a game may have. For example, if a soft tosser had a great game last time out and there is a feeling he will be less likely to duplicate that performance today, we can use these tools to see what to expect from him. It is predictive. If a soft tosser is shown to miss his spots, he then becomes hittable and a trainwreck to support in a wager. But he becomes a great candidate to bet against!

MLB wagering is a long grind. It takes more work than any other sport! Let the expert at MLB-Daily assist you with all the data you need, all the insight into every game, and access to the bets MLB-Daily makes!

The premium section of the website provides EV+ calculations for every game. Propietary Webbie Odds. Propietary starting pitching data. Offense and bullpen analysis! MLB-Daily also analyzes almost every game, whether there is a wager on it or not. You get to decide what to do with all of the information. You get to make your wagers or play the ones MLB-Daily plays! Daily work goes into the website to keep the MLB bettor in the best place possible, informed, and ready to act on wagerable opinions or EV+ opportunities!

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This space is overrun with content and has become very confusing. The new gambler can quickly get mired in the Sports Gambling quagmire. It may be challenging to navigate, but let’s break this down and sort things out!

First and foremost, this is not a simple endeavor whether you are making your own wagers, buying from someone else, or somewhere in between. You MUST work at the craft. It doesn’t matter how much time you have to put into it; the key is understanding and knowing why you just made a wager with your money! There are countless experts, and those who believe they are experts that have opinions. They are not wrong to have them. It is the buyer of these opinions that is responsible for vetting! Please also do not ask for records or tickets! These are 100% meaningless unless the buyer has recorded them as a vetting mechanism. All of these are not of importance, nor are they accurate, even if the intention was to be 100% transparent. It is easy to fake tickets, fake records, and bribe these 3rd party record keepers that everyone wants to use as gospel (I have seen this done, and it has been done for me in the past). All of this is excuse-making! Use the opinions you want and ride the outcomes. If they are not what you were hoping for, get new ones! Pretty simple. Here is where things get tricky. It is easy to change where you get your opinions from, but it takes work to know why someone else’s opinion is better than the one you used in the first place! You must learn sports gambling to a degree yourself. You should know why you are making a wager and what chance it has of winning! For those who just get plays that come across with a team or player and odds, I suspect you won’t be able to know why you wagered.

My advice is to learn something about the business from someone. Take the time to study the craft. Like most professions, you will only improve as your knowledge and experience improves. Sure, it is great to have some guy throw your way winners! It is even better when you can get those winners at no cost. I suggest this. Free winners are not part of any true sports gambler’s portfolio. No one beats this business by getting free winners. There are ways to get a free education! This can be a goal, and it will also make you a better gambler! Spend more time looking to improve your betting prowess and less time trying to find winners. The more prowess you develop, the more winners you will see as they go hand in hand. Sports gamblers that make their living network ideas with each other. They are constantly learning new ways and shifting previous ideas to gain edges. You should, too!

The hard work is to keep an open mind that no one knows everything about the business. Everyone is developing, whether they are experts or beginners. New techniques, data points, trends, mathematical spots, etc must be absorbed. Knowing the terminology is just not enough. For example, many can tell you what CLV is or what EV+ is. The problem is that the majority can not use either one in a sentence! If you do not believe math is involved in gambling, I have news for you. Sports gambling and no-limit holdem poker are very closely related. By knowing the probabilities of outcomes, you can make good wagers or wrong, but you will see what you did.

If you, your place where you get your opinions, or the opinion maker you trust can not explain the above; you need to learn more or change where you get your views! I run this website and provide information so people can learn to make better bets. I also have a premium side to it for those who want to see how to apply what they have learned and how I make my wagers. I don’t charge a fantastic fee, but there is one. I work very hard at this. I learned many aspects that I will share. However, it is not free to gain access to that knowledge. I designed the premium side so someone could go month to month, and when they felt like they had learned enough, they could move on! I also made it so someone could want to learn for a year.

Look, sports gambling is not easy to beat but easy to understand. Make good bets! How much easier is that? However, do not assume you, I, or anyone else knows everything about the industry. I see many content creators who seem to think they are expert bettors! This is just not accurate, nor is it the right way to approach it. No one always wins, but if you make great bets, you will win more often! Not pulling any punches here. I aim to teach you as much as possible while you learn to make good bets. It keeps you from the fray that is just a cesspool of wrong information and pretty takes on games. It is confusing out here. Cut through the muck, start learning, and make good bets while you do!

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The early season has always been more complicated than the middle or later parts of the season. The primary reason is a lack of current data from which to work. It is always easier when there is current data, and I don’t care what they did a year ago because I need to know more about it today! However, I have found some areas where we can see things that will help and, most importantly, are not baked into the odds.

The first area is with pitchers. We will be able to identify gainers and losers of velocity. Not every spring game has velocity tracked, so it is not a complete list of pitchers, but we can use this for their first couple of starts. A pitcher who gained velocity is more difficult to hit than the prior season. A pitcher who has lost velocity is easier to hit than the previous season. With this assumption, we can look at pitchers who gained and lost velocity year-over-year samples. More guys lose velocity than do gain, and we want to focus on the guys who have lost one mph or more and those who now throw only 90 mph. Guys who lose velocity need to learn how to pitch with less. It usually takes them several starts to accomplish this, so we can take advantage of odds that do not include these pitchers as being “weaker” than they were.

One example from this year’s spring training is NYM Sean Manaea. He threw 93.6 MPH last season but has only improved to 92.3 this year. Keeping with the Mets, Jose Quintana is sitting at between 90.9 and 90.5 MPH. The below 91 mph designation is essential. These pitchers get shelled if they are not precise with location. Quintana faces the Brewers on opening day and is a pickem (-110) to win this game. The Brewers should not have issues hitting Quintana and will destroy him if he misses his locations. This is how we use this information. Quintana is more susceptible to run-scoring opportunities against him than MIL Freddie Peralta, yet Peralta is not a favorite.

There are certain guys we should be cautious about. PHI Aaron Nola threw 92.7MPH last season yet has only ramped up to 91.6MPH this spring. He is getting close to being below that 91MPH threshold. A player like that could have a rough start, even though he will significantly impact the odds in his favor. If the situation, odds, and matchup fit, he is an excellent candidate to go against early on.

PHI Christopher Sanchez, though, has increased his velocity from 92.1 to 94.1! He will be priced like last season, yet he has made improvements that will not put him into the early odds. He should overperform to his previous year’s standard, and we get odds on the cheap for him. He is a perfect candidate to watch for.

Another area to look at is how many pitches a pitcher has built up to in the spring. Some guys are throwing at least 70 pitches and will be able to get up to 85-90 for their first starts. However, others have not thrown beyond 50-60. These guys will not extend beyond 70 pitches in their first start. This lets us know we need to consider the bullpen very early. Additionally, early bullpen usage generally means weak pitching until the end of the game. A guy like ARI Tommy Henry has not thrown past 62 pitches; his last start was 44. In general, we can use 15 pitches per inning as an average number. Thus, four innings equals 60 pitches. Henry will struggle to get in five innings, so he will need assistance to get through the game.

I chart every game pitched in terms of starter velocity over the spring. This is work, but it pays dividends at this time of year. The premium side of my website will showcase these data points and mention them often. This data is time-sensitive and not for general public knowledge. It is another tool to use, and I use it!

I will also use Game Score for pitchers—another non-baked into the odds edge. Game Score is a Sabermetric measure of how a pitcher has pitched. It is not predictive as a stat. However, we can apply regression/progression to the mean and get predictive tendencies. It is a great tool to understand the quality of performance a pitcher should have on the day he is pitching. It is a tremendous edge! Game Score measures the quality of a pitcher’s performance. Knowing that a pitcher will have an average score, we can take his recent and past performances and correlate them to whether he needs to improve to get back to his average or fail to get back to his average. The worst is that we know he cannot sustain his current performance and will either improve or fail to get closer to his mean. This edge is HUGE in understanding pitchers! Again, I can give away all of my work, so it is built into the premium section of this website. The following spreadsheet shows pitchers sorted by Game Score from last season. The Cy Young winners are shown as the best pitchers via Game Score. It is not often, if ever, talked about, but it can used very effectively!

Some areas not to focus on are wins and losses, teams’ records in spring training, individual batter and pitching performances, etc. Pitchers will have faced many minor league-level players, and they may have been working on specific things in the spring. This means they are not always doing everything they can to produce outs. Similarly, batters do not face major league-level pitching for every at-bat. Individual players’ success levels in the spring do not mean a carry-over to the start of the season. Team records do not mean anything, either. Their records are mainly accumulated due to competition at positions and the youthfulness of the roster. Veteran players know who plays every day; thus, competing for playing time is unnecessary. These teams usually are not winning teams in the spring.

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