MLB Daily

I was asked about baseball the other day and why there aren’t runs being scored. My answer to that is that the pitching is the absolute best the sport has ever had. Of course, then I hear about Perdro Martinez, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and so on. So I set out to explain why pitching today is better and that if those pitchers were just dropped into the game today, they would get hit!

Let’s start with this. Velocity. Not just peak velocity but the average velocity. The average fastball is thrown at 95+ mph today. The slider is thrown at over 90+ and the sinker is thrown at the same velocity as the fastball. In 2008, the average was 90.47 mph with only 4.82% of all pitches thrown over 95+! It is not the peak year for Pedro Martinez but in the 2008-2009 seasons, he threw a fastball that averaged 88-89 mph! The trouble is, I can’t go back to get data for him as this is a new form of data mining since those days. At one time, I do know Pedro hit 95-98 early in his career. A bit unfair here but more unfairness is on the way!

Greg Maddux hit 93 mph in his early seasons but was more around 87-91mph. He was a location pitcher relying on command and deception to get outs. Tom Glavine threw 82-85 mph in 2007-2008! He, like Maddux, is a location pitcher. Even the great Bob Gibson threw 90-92 and topped out at 95.

A little bit of science here as to why velocity matters. On a typical pitch, you have .4 seconds. You’ll use the first .2 seconds to determine if you’re going to swing, then the next .2 seconds to execute. In relation, it takes 0.1 -0.5 seconds to blink your eye! The moral of this story is simple. The more velocity the less time to identify and react to hit execute a swing to hit the ball. Understand that a batter has to visualize where he thinks the ball is going to be and swing at that spot. However, in today’s game, the ball moves more than it ever has before thus when the batter makes his decision, the ball isn’t always where he thought it would be. You see spin rates have changed the game. Sure velocity makes things hard, but a person could get the timing down and make solid contact if the ball was in the same place all the time.

The chart below shows the horizontal movement of pitches thrown by Zack Wheeler. The colors are representative of the different types of pitches he throws. The numbers on the left represent the number of inches his ball moves horizontally. I noticed a couple of things real quick. His sinker moves 18.1 inches. For perspective, the home plate is 17 inches wide! His change-up moves 15 inches, and his fastball moves 10.9 inches. It is interesting because most think all of those pitches are straight.

What is even more telling is that the pitches don’t just move horizontally. They also move vertically. They either rise or drop. The chart below shows his pitches in that format. His curveball dropped over 2 inches and his cutter rose over 2 inches!

So we get the idea now that pitches are thrown at extreme velocities, with extreme movements. The MLB batting average for 2024 is .239. It takes 2.2 hits to score one run. If we go by that philosophy, an offense will need to string together 2 hits plus either a walk or a third hit to score a run. It doesn’t seem a likely strategy. In the game today, we don’t even use batting average as the stat to define batter success. We use wOBA (weighted on-base percentage). The next chart shows how velocity affects the success rate of wOBA.

On the right-hand side, we see the velocity brackets defined to colored lines. Think of wOBA success like a batting average where .300 is good, but .325 is good for wOBA. Both the grey and orange lines are above .330 wOBA so that is excellent. The velocity on those pitches is 90-92mph orange and 92-94mph grey. Remember, that in 2008, the average pitch was thrown at 90.47 mph. It means the pitchers from that era, will get crushed by today’s hitters. Today’s hitters are so good, that even pitches thrown at 94-96mph equate to a good wOBA outcome! It’s when the velocity goes above that! At between 96-98mph, we get a below-acceptable return and a horrid return on anything above 98mph. A major league pitcher today throws 94-97 regularly. Their pitches move all over the place. It is not easy to get the hits required to score runs, so the philosophy has changed.

It is no longer a get them, get over, get them in style of offense. It has become a league where each batter takes violent but purposeful swings. Watch them take their swings. Unless they are completely fooled, they swing violently at the ball. The hitters are trying to damage when they make contact. They already know there is less contact to be made so when it happens, the goal is for the ball to be hit somewhere a long way. They are using their tools as well. they are trying to get the proper launch angle for the ball to go off their bats. If it has the right trajectory and exit velocity, it has an increased possibility of becoming a hard hit or home run somewhere. The more hard hits, the more damaging hits like extra-base hits, which then require less stringing together of hits to make runs. This style of offense equates the base on balls as extremely valuable. If a guy is on base because the pitcher put him there, there there is a greater chance to score because three hits are not needed (only two). In the game today, 40% of all the runs scored come from home runs!

The pitcher has a stat named FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching). It is shown like an ERA but only is concerned with three outcomes. It calculates strikeouts, walks, and home runs, which are the 3 True Outcomes. If a pitcher has an acceptable FIP, he is controlling the game from the mound because the hitters are up there trying to walk or hit homers.

In the end, it is always good to reminisce about the old days of the game and the dominant players of that time. However, make no mistake. If those players were dropped into today’s game, only a handful of them would be able to play, I highly doubt that many would be the superstar that we recall them to be. The players today are the best to have ever played the sport. The hitters are better than those of the past as well. Can you imagine these unathletic guys who swung 40-ounce bates trying to hit today’s pitchers? The pitchers from those eras would be like spot starters. They didn’t throw hard enough to get it by the batters of today nor did the movement of that era come close to what it is today. It is a different game, but it has to be. The players are too good and must approach the game in a different way to be successful.

There is such a place where you can get all you need to learn, handicap, and bet baseball. The website http://www.MLB-DAILY.com provides all of this in a one-stop shop.

The best line origination on the market is called “WEBBIE ODDS”. they are formed with the ideals from the book Traning Bases by Joe Peta. The principles are there but revised to make the most accurate odds available.

WEBBIE ODDS generates an odds comparison to the betting market and is turned into WEBBIE EV+ TOOL. This tool shows where all the EV+ bets are to be found for each day!

You could stop there and be a successful bettor, but no there is more! The website has a daily weather update from Kevin Roth specific to every game on the slate.

There is the proprietary Pitcher Report. All the pitching data that is needed in one form. It also includes an analysis of how to read it and use it.

The most underused and overlooked area is offense. There is an entire section for the offense. It includes runs per game, strike out %, OFF WAR rank, and ISO ranks. However, that is not all. There is the cluster effecting of hitters. All batters that are doing well are listed with the standouts by name. There is a total cluster score. It is easy to see how large one team’s edge over another is using this form!

No true one-stop shop would not have bullpen features and there is one of those here too! Now we can handicap the start of games plus the end of games! Comes in very handy for F5 wagering!

We are not finished yet! Many people like to play totals and team totals. There is the WEBBIE SCORE PREDICTOR that shows the anticipated score based on the starting pitchers and the bullpen’s performances.

And of course, how would this not be complete without a breakdown of every game? There is a write-up section for each game of the slate of games available!

If you are just after bets, there is a section for that too! Every bet that is made is listed to follow or learn from. Every bet is made from the information provided. It demonstrates how to use the information to your advantage. There is a complete recap section with updated results!

Currently, we are on a 17-5 winning run. Every bet is considered 1 unit and based on a $100 bet. This process takes the starting pitchers to have thrown at least 3 games for the information to be useful. Now we are in that area of the season, the results are proving the information to be extremely valuable.

Whether you want you use the information to learn from, you want to follow the picks, or just become more adept of a bettor, this is a toolbox that you have in your sports gambling portfolio. This comes out every day for those in the premium section. There are articles to learn from or even free write-ups to see on the website, but this is where you want to be. It costs $150 to be a member. Based on the results above (season to date), you have already paid for this and much more! Use the link and become another member of the site today!

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The most frustrating part of having a website where strategies, data, and advice are given, is that not enough people who need to learn from it see it. Sometimes it is because of the size of the following or perhaps the marketing strategy behind it, but also it is today’s culture. Most people today want quick fixes and fast returns. The sports betting world doesn’t work that way. It takes repetition, discipline, and specific knowledge. This website (www.MLB-DAILY.com) shares the knowledge of what it takes to be successful and also demonstrates it.

This website works very hard to separate itself from frauds, scammers, content providers, and loud-mouthed attention seekers. There are fundamental processes, math equations, gambling situations, bankroll management techniques, and more for people to become better bettors every day. There is specific work shown and explained, then used to show the results of that work. The drive to help others is real. The effort is real.

I heard someone say once, “I do this type of work so the mistakes I made along the way can be avoided and the growth can move forward from this spot, not the spots where the same mistakes happened”. I think there is a need to make mistakes as that is a great learning tool in itself. However, I do agree with the principle of not following the same mistakes of the past. The future is a place where we need to be smarter and more advanced.

We need to read, learn, and digest all we can to get a competitive edge. This is a world where if you don’t win, you lose and when you lose bets, you go broke!

Please take the time to read, share, and ask questions about the content of this website. I will answer almost anything and give my advice. I would urge you to read many viewpoints as there is most certainly not one opinion that everyone will agree with. So, I ask with all sincerity, please ask questions. Please contribute to the growth and awareness of what we are doing here.

And I thank you in advance!

Now that the pitchers have made 3 starts, the data I use has been excellent for making winning bets! I am now 15-5 since April 20th. The entire season is 49-38. It is always good to be on a run, but it is better to know why. I am sure there was luck involved because there always is, but I am also sure this is the proper way to do MLB betting!

The main goal is to win bets, but at the same time, not lose bets! It is very difficult to manage your bankroll with moneyline bets and losing causes enormous shortcomings to overcome. I don’t want any of those. I am probably more upset by losing a bet than I do winning one.

Anyway, sometimes letting people know where you stand and that your process is solid, can be helpful. As usual, you can find me at http://www.MLB-DAILY.com. You can become a member to get these bets and to see the process by clicking the link.

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Baseball, like most sports, is a game of scoring runs and preventing runs. The most important part of predicting these outcomes is the worth of the starting pitcher. That is where everyone begins and ends! However, most people with this as their focus will be a 50% bettor. A pitcher like Zack Wheeler of the Phillies is graded as the best pitcher in the game today. This year he has made six starts. The Phillies are 2-4 in those starts. If you wagered all of his games, you would be down $316 on $100 wagers. Thus, there is more to it than this. I can get into handicapping the bullpens at another time as this is another area where teams are differentiated. The number one missing or overlooked analysis for predicting MLB games is the differentiation of each team’s ability to score runs. It’s the offense. If you are not putting a significant amount of analytical work there, you are missing the 2nd largest determining factor in these games.

This season we have teams that have scored 140+ runs, with ARI at 149. We also have teams that have scored >85 runs with the White Sox at only 56! The chart below shows OFF WAR rankings. OFF WAR = Offensive WAR. OFF WAR is the offensive part of WAR that you are used to seeing, but WAR also includes and is heavily weighted for defense. We can take the defense out.

The offense is very tricky. Players and teams go hot and cold in a matter of days. A perfect example of this is to show the last 7 days’ results just like above. Look at a team like the Minnesota Twins. Over the season they are ranked 21st, yet over the last 7 days, they are ranked 3rd! The Twins are not the same team they were several weeks ago. They are better and not all sportsbook odds will give them credit for this turnaround. We can capture value this way. Another example but opposite is the New York Yankees. They are the 8th-best offense for the season, but only the 24th-ranked offense right now. Hence they split 4 games with OAK.

Scoring runs is about getting the opportunities to score them. To get opportunities, you must get on base. When looking at pitchers, we need to focus on how they limit or allow those baserunner opportunities. We must look at the offense to see if they can take advantage of the opportunities provided. So far this season. there have been 3,316 runs scored and there have been 6,146 hits. For simplicity, it takes two hits to score a run. It is more complicated and walks need to be added, yet you get the idea. We can now look at pitchers in terms of hits and walks they allow and the offense’s ability to do something with those opportunities. When you are just looking at the pitcher and his ERA, you are missing a huge chunk of how to analyze a game.

The offense is just not that simple either, but that is a good start. Another aspect is called clusters. A batting order consists of nine players. If there are batters that are hitting in that order back to back or at least with three of each other, they will have a cluster effect. Let’s say we are talking about the Dodgers. Their order is Betts, Ohtani, Freeman, Smith, Hernandez, and Muncy. We can take a look at the OFF WAR individually as well as for a team. Again, it doesn’t matter what they did several weeks ago only what they are doing now. The chart below is for the Dodger’s performance for the last 7 days.

Here we see a perfect illustration of a cluster. Betts, Ohtani, and Freeman are their 3 best hitters! They all bat in their order together so they should have more opportunities to be baserunners than fewer. We can take advantage of this when considering the run line. A team like the Dodgers will be difficult to wager on the money line and still have value due to their prices. However, there are spots where based on how the clusters are working, they should be expected to cover run lines.

So, don’t be short-sided in your analysis of baseball predictions. The starting is the main focus, but the offense is critical to turning a 50% winning bettor into one closer to 60%. There many ways analyze the sport, but hopefully these simple steps will help you along the way.

As I use only Sabermetric data, I need to ensure anyone reading or listening to my content understands what I am saying, why I use the data, and what everything means. I have a multitude of charts. These are compiled from specific data points from several places. My inability to write Python code means I manually input these every day. I was reminded to explain everything though. I will lay this out to match how my charts are laid out so the information will match the charts you are reading or I refer to.

WEBBIE ODDS

WEBBIE ODDS are the first to be published every morning. They are composed of a blend of FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus, and BaseRuns projected standings. Each team has a probable winning percentage that is put into a formula that gives a probable winning percentage when these teams play each other. From the winning percentage, I use FanGraphs (I will abbreviate as FG going further) projection systems. They show Steamer and Zips projections for players. Both Steamer and Zips are companies that make projections. I use an average WAR for the pitchers to adjust the winning probability due to the strength of the pitchers. This generates a winning probability that needs to be adjusted for the home field and turned into a money line. For example, a winning percentage of 56.41% becomes -129.

WAR- Wins Above Replacement. It is the value for a player compared to an average player shown by how many more wins he is responsible for. The larger the number the better.

WIN Probability or Winning Percentage: The percentage a team will win when facing the opponent. Win probabilities can be turned into money lines by using an odds calculator. Here is a link for one: https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.html

WEBBIE EV+ TOOL

WEBBIE ODDs are input along with market odds into the WEBBIE EV+ TOOL. They are shown as My Probability (WEBBIE ODDs) and Listed Odds. My Probability column populates the MY ODDS column. TRUE ODDS are the listed odds when the sportsbook vigorish is removed. The Implied No Vig% is the probability of true odds. The Implied w/VIG column is the probability of the Listed Odds. The vigorish column is the difference between the No Vig and with Vig column. The Value column is the one that shows EV+ situations. If the result is “black”, there is a positive expectation or more probability of winning than the sportsbook is offering. If it is “red”, there is less probability than the book is offering, and is a negative expectation.

EV+ = Extra Value Positive, The definition is when there is a greater probability of winning than what the sports book is offering.

Pitcher Report

The GSC sections refer to Game Score. Using game score, I can see how a pitcher’s past results are using a composite scoring system rather than a pitching line. GSC1 is the last start for the pitcher or the prior to the one he is making today. GSC3 is an average of a pitcher’s last three starts. GSC7 is an average of a pitcher’s last seven starts. The reason for seven, is during a 30-45 day stretch, a pitcher will start 6-8 times. I want to use his last 30 days as baraometer for his current form is. I look at his last 3 and last 1 to gause the rgression bar. If a pitcher has a GSc60 in the GSC3 column and a GSc52 in the GSC7 column, it means that he is overperforming his curent form and regreeion is due or ripe for this pitcher. GSC YTD is the games score ofr the season. By using game score, I can quickly asses the quality standard, and gauge whether this pitcher should throw above or below his standard in this game.

Game Score: Game Score was created by Bill James to measure the quality of individual starts. While most baseball fans are familiar with the traditional “pitching line” of Innings, Hits, Runs, Earned Runs, Walks, and Strikeouts, James’ Game Score consolidates those statistics into a single number that makes comparing starts easier.

xFIP and SIERA I refer to as metrics. I do not use ERA. I use these instead. When there is an “x” in front of any Sabermetric data point, it is a predictive data point. It is telling you what will happen not what has happened. That is exactly what we are looking for. These metrics tell quite the story of our pitchers. They have signigicant meaning to expectatins. To use xFIP, we must define FIP. FIP is Fielding Independent Pitching. It measures BBs, Ks, and HRs. It is only things the pitcher controls. I have used the term “Three True Outcomes”. Those three outcomes are BBs, K, and HRs! Think of it this way, this measures how much a pitcher is in need of his defense. Thes metrics are shown like an ERA so it is easy to know what is a good acore and what is a poor one. The lower the number th better. So xFIP, tells us how a pitcher will control the game from the mound and if his defense will be needed. I often use the terms balls in play to describe this. The more balls in play, the more the defense has to be involved.

SIERA is Skill Interactive ERA. While FIP and xFIP largely ignore balls in play — they focus on strikeouts, walks, and homeruns instead — SIERA adds in complexity in an attempt to more accurately model what makes a pitcher successful. SIERA doesn’t ignore balls in play, but attempts to explain why certain pitchers are more successful at limiting hits and preventing runs. This is the strength of SIERA; while it is only slightly more predictive than xFIP, SIERA tells us more about the how and why of pitching.

Here’s what SIERA tells us:

Strikeouts are good…even better than FIP suggests. High strikeout pitchers generate weaker contact, which means they allow fewer hits (AKA have lower BABIPs) and have lower homerun rates. 

Walks are bad…but not that bad if you don’t allow many of them. Walks don’t hurt low-walk pitcher nearly as much as they hurt other pitchers, since low-walk pitchers can limit further baserunners. Similarly, if a pitcher allows a large amount of baserunners, they are more likely to allow a high percentage of those baserunners to score.

Balls in play are complicated. In general, groundballs go for hits more often than flyballs (although they don’t result in extra base hits as often). But the higher a pitcher’s groundball rate, the easier it is for their defense to turn those ground balls into outs. In other words, a pitcher with a 55% groundball rate will have a lower BABIP on grounders than a pitcher with a 45% groundball rate. And if a pitcher walks a large number of batters and also has a high groundball rate, their double-play rate will be higher as well.

xWOBA and L30 xWOBA

wOBA is weighted on base average. Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) is one of the most important and popular catch-all offensive statistics. wOBA is based on a simple concept: Not all hits are created equal. Batting average assumes that they are. On-base percentage does too, but does one better by including other ways of reaching base such as walking or being hit by a pitch. Slugging percentage weights hits, but not accurately (Is a double worth twice as much as a single?) and again ignores other ways of reaching base. Weighted On-Base Average combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value. While batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage fall short in accuracy and scope, wOBA measures and captures offensive value more accurately and comprehensively. xWOBA is the expected weighted on base average. It is shown to look like a btting average. However, move the expectation up a little nit. an average WOBA is .325.

While xWOBA is an offensive data point, I get to use it to define how batters will do against the pitcher. xWOBA vs OPP is how batters who have batted against this pitcher are expected to perform. It is pitcher versus hitter. xWOBA L30 is how the pitcher has performed over his last 30 days. I get to see what an offense is going to do against this pitcher before the game!

K/9 is strikeouts per nine innngs. My chart is red and green. Green is good and red is bad. A pitcher over 8.50 K/9 will be green. The goal is to limit baserunners and I want to know how many are eliminated via striekouts.

BB/9 is walks per nine innings. Just like above, this one though is less than 3.00 to be green. You might her me say or read my writing where i say ” he puts guys on base”. This is what I mean. We want to know how hard an offens has to work to get on base, and a pitcher puts them on base, they have an easier time with base runners, which in turn, generate scoring chances.

STUFF+ and PITCHING+

These are pitching metrics that measure the quality of pitches thrown. It is on a 100 scale so a 112 is 12% better than average. STUFF+ measures the characteristcs of pitches, including release point, velocity, vertical and horizontal movement, and spin rate. The higher this number, the better a pitcher’s arsenal is to get batters out. PITCHER+ combines STUFF+ with location and batter handedness. It show how a pitcher uses his arsenal to get outs.

AVG and WHIP

AVG is the batting average for hitters against the pitcher and WHIP is Walks plus Hits divided by innins pitched. WHIP tells us how many baserunners per inning a pitcher allows. The goal is to gauge these metrics against league average. Is the pitcher better or worse? Again green or red on the charts. We get know how baserunners per inning to expect. Keep in mind that baserunners equal scoring chances.

GB%, BABIP and BABIP Variance

GB% is groundball percentage. This tells us in comparison to league average if a pitcher gets more or less groundballs. A pitcher will want these, but not all pitcher are groundball guys. Their pitch plane and velocity will generate launch angles and we want to know what to expect. Groundballs are less damaging than flyballs.

BABIP is batting average on balls in play. By itself, BABIP really means nothing. What is tells us is on balls that are put in play, how many of these are hits. A pitcher does not control this entriely, he just effects it. When BABIP is compared to league average, we can see if a pitcher is unlucky or less favorable that balls in play against him have not found fielders. This also means that it will regress to the mean, thus he will start getting outs where he wasn’t before. I measure this through the BABIP Variance column. If the metrics is red, and BABIP is yellow, the pitcher has been fortunate and need to be cautious of ball becoming hits. If the metric is green, then the pitcher has been unlucky and his fortune should change to having balls become outs instead of hits.

HARD HIT RATE

Hard hit rate is the measure by percentage of the type of contact a batte makes. The harder a ball is hit, the more likely it will go for a hit and it has a greater chance of being a damaging hit.

WIN Probabilty Added

Like in football wher epa is a big deal, WPA is the same thing. It measures every play in terms of how much value was added to win the game and to lose the game. WPA is the total calcualtion of positive plays less the negative plays. This metric builds upon itself over the course of plays. I only use the data from the past 30 days. Another way to look at this, is when things get tough, does the pitcher respond? A positive number does indicate a “bulldog” mentality to winning games because he get those positive outcomes to help his team win. A negative score shows a lack of toughness which favores the batters.

OFF WAR

OFF WAR = Offensive WAR. WAR is measued by offense plu defense. When I am trying to get the value of battrer offensively, I use the OFF WAR metric. It is WAR minus defense. This tells us how many wins over a replacement player a hitters have contrubuted. I use only 7 day batting stats. Any time a player is listed with a 2.0+ OFF WAR, his name gets listed into the cluster section of teh Offense Report. Everyone with a 1.0+ plus result gets added to the strip on the right. I also in clude the negative -1.0 and above. The yellow column is the total of positive and negive OFF WAR results showing the cluster.

ISO=Isolated Power. ISO measures extra base hits as percetage aginst non extra base hits. Isolated Power (ISO) is a measure of a hitter’s raw power and tells you how often a player hits for extra bases. We know that not all hits are created equally and ISO provides you with a quick tool for determining the degree to which a given hitter provides extra base hits as opposed to singles. ISO tells you the average number of extra bases a player gets per at bat and this is a piece of information you want to know. ISO saves you steps from average and slugging because it is a cobination of them in data point. I measure team offense via OFF WAR and ISO. It is helpful to how teams score and ISO helps identify those variances.

For anyone not using my data or tools, I post them daily on my website. I will be glad to explain anything futher if necssary (www.webbie20mlb@gmail.com). I would also invite you to become a memer and recieve this kind of data daily. However,. it will come with my analysis and picks.

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Many bettors in the market make bets on trends, systems, line moves, injuries, weather, their favorite teams, and so on. They find reasons to put their dollars at risk. While spread betting is the most popular because of the points, it is true that whether you are getting or having to cover points, it’s the value that makes the bet. This value betting strategy should apply to all your bets, including money line wagers, parlays, teasers, or any other bet. Poker is this way and maybe the best analogy to making sports wagers. A bet where you believe that the odds of an event happening are greater than the odds offered by the bookmaker is a value bet.

In poker, there are 52 cards in the deck, and you see the flop, turn, and river for a total of 5 cards. A sound player will know which cards he needs to make his hand the best hand. In turn, he can divide those helpful cards (outs) by the cards in play to get actual probabilities of events. He can make the correct decision based on the card’s odds probability and the money in the pot. Sports betting is exactly the same thing! If a sports bettor is given -130 odds from a sportsbook which has a 56.5% probability, but he sees the odds as -150 (60.% probability). Now the bettor has a value bet. The value is 20 cents in the line or 3.5% in probability. As a bettor, we should be doing this on every bet or we don’t bet!

Making a bet is not the same thing as handicapping a game. Handicapping has to do with team and player comparisons. It can help gause the gap between teams. Bettors use trends, systems, line moves, injuries, scores, etc to determine these things. There is no handicapping a bet. It is either made with more or less probability of winning. We are in MLB season and there is NO BETTER way to make MLB wagers than this! If you use a service or handicapper, make sure you are getting the probability of your bet winning before you make it. If you are a DIY bettor, make sure you are adding probabilities to your process.

I have WEBBIE ODDS and through those, I get a WEBBIE EV+ TOOL. I have the probability difference for every game daily. I do handicapping as well, but I want to only make winning probability bets and a solution for finding those bets. I encourage you to give my website a look at http://www.MLB-DAILY.COM. I have plenty of helpful daily content but I also have a section for those who want it all. WEBBIE ODDs, WEBBIE EV+TOOL, WEBBIE Score Predictor, my proprietary Pitcher Repots, Offense / Cluster Report, Bullpen Report, and analysis for virtually every game are provided daily. I also share the bets I make. If you just want picks, or if you want the information to make your bets, this is the place to use.

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The season shows that the home field is not so friendly right now. Look at the chart below regarding teams and their away records as of today. It shows 17 of the 30 teams have at least a .500 record and 22 are within 1 game of being .500 on the road. MIL, CLE, and BOS are a combined 30-8 when they play away from home!

Usually, these teams will be underdogs too, so betting on the away team has been profitable. The green ROIs in this chart outweigh the red and it’s not even close!

The run line comes into play roughly 28% of the time. There are 15 games per night when all the teams play, so there will be 4 one-run games. These games might be easy to identify when there are two dominant pitchers for example. My contention is not to be afraid of the run line and use it more often. I played a game recently where The Mets were -142 -1.5 and -135 on the money line. I played the Run Line and the Mets won 9-1! I made great value there. It is also getting to a point where certain teams can’t score any runs. These teams right now are the White Sox, Rockies, Cardinals, and Pirates. Playing the run line against these teams is a good idea. It is better to monitor these teams’ offensive output weekly. Every team will have its issues, you can be more prepared to get maximum value from betting against them.

I made two wagers today that ended in ties or for sports betting, they pushed. The bets were TEX first five innings -105 and CLE@BOS Under 9 runs. TEX had scored 4 runs by the second inning so all is great. In many cases, that is enough to win the wager already. However, DET rallied in the 2nd to score three runs. However, DET rallied and scored 4 in the bottom of the second inning to tie the game. Oh, no. TEX scored 2 more in the third inning and one more in the fourth to lead 7-4 and all is right with the world again. DET scored 3 more runs in the fourth inning to tie the game at 7 a piece. Two runs came on a flyball misjudged by the TE centerfielder and DET had two outs. All he had to do was catch the ball and the inning was over, I won the bet. I attached the play below. The following batter also got a hit which drove in the third run and snatched victory away! I did not lose the bet though as it was a tie 7-7, but it feels like I did.

In the CLE/BOS game, the score needs to be under 9 runs but at 9 runs I tie. The score is 2-1 CLE after four innings and all is good. BOS makes an error in the fifth inning as the leadoff batter for CLE gets to second base. The next batter makes flies out and then moves to third base. A walk then happens so there are now runners on first and third with one out (there should be two outs and only the guy on first). A base hit drives in the run from third and we have runners on 1st and second and a 3-1 score. The pitch hits the next batter to load up the bases with only one out. There is a ground that scored the runner on third base to make the score 4-1 and then a ground out to end the inning. The score is 4-1 not in the fifth inning. CLE scores another run in the sixth inning to go ahead 5-1. BOS makes two quick outs in their half of the sixth, then gets a single. CLE makes a pitching change. The next BOS batter singles. There are runners on second and first with two outs in a 5-1 game. The next batter hits a triple to score both runners and the game is now 5-3 and tending over! The next BOS batter singles to score the guy on third and the game is 5-4. There is no way we get this to have zero runs for the remainder of the game. Yet, that is exactly what happened. The game ended 5-4 and tied/pushed on under 9 runs. I feel like I won that one!

The moral of this story is that sweats in baseball betting are brutal. You have to take solace that you are making good bets and the outcomes will take care of themselves throughout thousands of bets. Every push does not feel the same nor was it achieved the same. The advice is to be callous towards these kinds of events. A learned habit is celebrating your wins because they don’t come easy and are worth letting some emotion go. Don’t harbor losses, move on to the next betting opportunity!

The paid or premium section of http://www.MLB-Daily.com has many daily features. These are designed to guide a new baseball bettor in the right direction for making quality bets. Whether you handicap the games, just want to be shown the process, or just follow my bets, the choice is there for you to make. The goal is to show you the way and allow you to make your choices. The daily features are WEBBIE ODDS, WEBBIE EV+ TOOL, Weather Report, Pitcher Report, Offense / Cluster Report, and Bullpen Ranks. A Score Predictor will be added in a couple of days as more data is coming in and it will work for all the games. You receive the best in the industry-originated odds, then apply to a tool to show the EV+ for every game! You receive the most updated weather reports. You receive proprietary Pitching information that removes unnecessary data only to provide the most important data! You receive proprietary offensive clustering. You receive bullpen ranks with bullpen usage issues where applicable. Nothing is not provided to make quality bets daily. Here are some samples from today. The price of this information is $150.00 for the entire season. I hope you will support the website and become a member. see this link:

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Daily the WEBBIE EV+ TOOL is posted in the premium content. It will show where there is an expected value positive based on WEBBIE ODDS. Here is today’s version!

Another element that is a daily feature is the PITCHER REPORT. There is detailed data regarding the performance of pitchers and what to expect from them today. It is also given in the premium section. Here is today’s version.

A team’s offense is also part of the daily information! It is broken down into runs per game, and player clusters! Great tool. Here is today’s version.

There is a weather report, a bullpen report, and soon to come, a score predictor (more data needed). The score predictor provides a F5 score as well as the full game.

Thank you for your time and I hope to see you as a member!