MLB Daily

Recap of 04/11: I had 3 picks all underdogs and feel that I should have gone 3-0! This is not an unusual feeling for baseball betting. Anyway, I won with TOR Manaoh +105 as threw great and TOR shut out NYY. I lost with NYM Walker +137. He was removed after 2 innings with a sore shoulder, but NYM had a 4-0 lead in the 8th inning. I chose full game here because my view was NYM may need to rally against the PHI bullpen and that was an edge I didn’t want to miss out on. However, PHI rallied against the NYM bullpen and score 5 runs in the bottom of the 8th to win the game. Feels terrible and like I should’ve won that one. It is baseball and already the 2nd time for an issue like this. It won’t be the last. I won with SD Martinez +131 against SF and Wood. It was more or less a tight battle throughout. Martinez was in and out of trouble in the first part of the game, then settled down throwing very well. SD put up 4 runs which were enough to beat SF 4-2. Overall, 2-1 +1.36 units.

Today’s selections.

Starting at 4:10 rotation #917. I am going with CLE Bieber -107 @ CIN. Here we have both pitchers in their second starts and Bieber is more Cy Young type pitcher, certainly an ACE, and should be expected to back good performances with other good performances. Mahle is a good pitcher but not an ace pitcher. I expect a worse out from him in his second start than his first. CLE rallied to win their last 2 games in KC and now travel to CIN where I expect them to “carry over” their momentum for game #1 of the series. In fact, CLE is ranked #2 in OFF (Offense WAR metric), #3 in wRC+, and #1 in wRAA. Yes, I know it is only after 4 games, but this is what I want. I don’t care what their rankings will be at the end of the season, I am not betting them then, I am betting them here on April, 12. Recency matters to some data points and not others. I also like that CIN is just the opposite. They rank #28 in OFF, 28 in wRC+, and 28th in wRAA. Simply said, Bieber is a better pitcher facing a worse offense and CLE has the ability to take advantage of that. I played #917 CLE Biber -107.

My second selection starts at 6:45. Going back to the scene of yesterday’s crime in PHI, however, I going to play rotation #904 Wheeler F5 -.5 -115. Similar to the above game in the sense that Megill made a very good start in his 1st start, I am expecting a worse performance here. The Mets and the Phillies have top 5 offenses, so I expect PHI to be able to take advantage of Megill. Wheeler will be making his 1st start and he’s the best pitcher on their team. He is an ace. It allows him the opportunity to stifle the NYM offense enough to limit scoring. I like the idea that Wheeler limits NYM, and Megill does not limit PHI which means we should see PHI with the lead. I played F5 to avoid the PHI bullpen and to endure the at-bats. If you play full game RL with the home team, often they are leading after 8 and they do not get to bat in the 9th.

My third selection is the continued ride of poor ARI offense. We need either be betting against them or Under in all of their games until they turn around the hitting. Today, they face HOU and Garcia. I choose not to bet against them, not because I expect them to win, but because I thought the better value was on the UNDER. HOU is -150. The UNDER is 9.5 -120. The idea is to think about how many runs will ARI score? I assume 0-2 at this point based on their lousy offense. If that holds true, then HOU will need 8-10 runs by themselves to go OVER the 9.5. I like those odds better than HOU winning the game at -150. I do not like to get into that area, especially with away favorites and in this case, an AL team traveling to an NL city. The choice is rotation #929/930 HOU@ARI UNDER 9.5 -120

Today starts new series and we get starters making their second starts. The first point is really no issue, the issue is more about travel and how teams faired off their last series heading into new series. I believe in what I have called the “Carry Over Theory”. Teams are likely to play their 1st game of a new series how they come off their last series. This holds true in most cases but home teams fair better. Here are the numbers.

Ideally, we want to find teams that lost their home series and are playing away and teams that won home series and now are on the road. This gets more into handicapping so I will leave it here (NOTE: JOIN ESCI DISCORD TO GET THIS KIND OF EXCLUSIVE CONTENT, JUST DM ME OR LEAVE A COMMENT HERE). The second starts for starting pitchers are another handicapping point, so I will brief. Most pitchers establish their level of performance in their first 3 or 4 starts. History tells me that a pitcher will throw above, below, and average to his performance in these first few starts. It means that a pitcher who threw poorly is more likely to be at worst his average or better the next time out. The same holds true in the opposite way as pitchers who threw well are likely to throw average or worse. Good info to know!

There is one game of note in Webbie Odds that begs to look into but advise to stay off playing early. It is the KC/STL game. STL is showing -182 @CIRCA and Webbie Odds has -138. The variance is what we are looking for but KC is off a HOME series split with CLE where at times were totally overmatched offensively which is not a good spot when battling a good offense like STL. CLE and Beiber will be a game that handicapping will further allow better understanding and make for a possible selection.

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Recap of Sunday.

I played 2 games going 1-1 but losing 0.35 units. STL F5 RL -135 was the loser. They started off great getting 3 in the first inning. However, Matz allowed 5 in the 3rd and PIT scored 2 more in the 4th. I am “riding” the poor performance offense of ARI and in the 2nd game earned another winner. SD scored 5 in the 2nd and kept adding. They scored 10 runs before ARI scored 1. This is a streak we are going to either play against ARI or the Under until ARI gets their offense going. This was game 2 of riding against them and 2-0 on this current ride.

I chose to add in Webbie Odds here as the morning odds are moving around some.

My first selection comes from last night’s Webbie Odds. I do send out the odds prior night of the games. I played rotation #953 NYM Walker +137. Webbie Odds says this line should be -105 which is a pick’em. NYM is projected to win 90.9 games winning % of .561. PHI is projected to win 86.7 games winning % of .535. Starting from here, NYM becomes a FAV with a 52.62% win probability. The home team is PHI so they get a little for that, then it is about the pitchers. Walker vs Suarez. What the books are telling us is that Suarez is an ace. He is not. PHI’s offense should be better by the end of the year, but currently, NYM’s is #1. PHI is overvalued so I play NYM here.

My 2nd selection is a copy of the 1st. I am on #957 SD Martinez +133. Again here we see SD a team who should win 90-91 games playing a team projected at 82-84 wins. Over the course of the season and currently, SD has the better offense. Martinez is not a known commodity to most (pitched in Japan the last couple of seasons) so we are getting value with SD. Webbie odds say they should be a small favorite, yer we can get them at +133.

My last selection is #965 TOR Manaoh +105. If you are not familiar with Alek Manoah, watch him pitch over his next few starts. He is young, and throws hard, with 3 plus pitches (he only throws 3 pitches). I like his matchup today against Taillon. Taillon is more of a flyball pitcher. That does not bode well against the TOR offense. The TOR offense has 7 HRs already and is 3rd in MLB. I like getting Manoah as a small dog here when Webbie Odds this he is a small favorite. He faced NYY twice in 2021 throwing 11.2 innings allowing 7 hits and 3 runs for a 2.31 ERA and 61 Game Score. Taillon faced TOR three times in 2021 throwing 13 innings allowing 13 hits and 9 runs. TOR has the better pitcher tonight and we will have to see who has the better pitcher, but I put my money on Manoah.

BREAKING NEWS!!!

Today, we are announcing the Discord channel rollout. We want a boost to start so the first 20 DMs get in for FREE!!! DM me @Webbie20MLB Or Jeff @ECSportsInvest. From, my website, you can leave a comment (I can keep them private) with your email address and say “I want in”. Below is the news release! I look to seeing you in the DIscord!

As we get the first weekend of MLB moved into the first full week and we transition teams playing one another, we see Webbie Odds differ on a couple of games. The odds are very consistent until we reach rotation numbers 953/954 NYM @ PHI. CIRCA odds are showing PHI -150 whereas Webbie Odds are at -105. That is a HUGE variance. Webbie Odds says coin flip and CIRCA odds say 60% win probability for PHI. I would expect that number to move down, but if can wager it now, there is a major value in NYM +135! This one is to NOT wait if can play it. The other game is rotation numbers 957/958 SD @ SF. CIRCA odds are SF -133 whereas Webbie Odds are SD -116. Webbie Odds ay the wrong team is favored! It is too early to read the market to know if SF will take in more money and move further away from Webbie Odds, but this is another one to wager now if you can. As I give out picks, so I have to be transparent in that I cannot release plays until the day of the game, but I assure you if these odds are still this far valued, they will be in the write-up. I will also tell you, I DID play these two already!

Recap from SAT: I went 3-0 as SEA/MIN stayed Under in the F5, PHI covered 0.5 F5, and SD wins with late scoring to cover the RL in ARI. The prop bets went 0-2 but were close. Both pitchers needed 4.5 Ks and ended with 4 each. Just needed them to pitch one more inning each! 0-2 for the props. 3 units won and props lost 1 unit (half a unit on them) for a 2 unit winning day in total.

For the season to date: I am 6-2 and +3.64 Units. The props are 0-2 -1 unit so the total is +2.64 units.

On to SUNDAY 04/10 selections. Again there is a very difficult schedule to navigate. Once the teams move on to their next cities this trend may not continue but for now, we still need to be creative to get some action on these games.

My first selection is rotation #906 St. Louis First 5 RL -0.5 -135. St.Louis is off to go start regarding their potent offense. They are currently 3rd in runs scored with 15 and 2nd in sabermetrics stat OFF with 7.2. The wind in St. Louis today is blowing down the line out to the left-field at 18-20mph. This will aid the offense. PIT Bryse Wilson gets the start and he sets up well for the STL offense. His xFIP 4.96 and SIERA 5.29 are 2nd highest total for pitchers today. He has a low strikeout rate, low groundball rate, and low swing and miss rate. It means balls will be in play. He has a high hard-hit rate. He has not faced STL much but when he did last season, it did not go well. He threw 4 innings allowing 8 hits and 5 runs. The STL lineup has batted 29 times getting11 hits against him. Steven Matz will face the Pirates. He was an American League pitcher last season but played in the National League prior to that so he at least had some experience against them. The PIT lineup has batted 26 times against him getting only 6 hits with only 1 extra base hit. I like STL to continue their strong offensive start today against PIT.

My second selection is rotation #913 San Diego RL -1.5 -108. My partner Jeff always says “If I wasn’t riding the trend at the beginning, I am not jumping on in the middle”. We are on the trend in the beginning and riding it until it ends. In this case, the trend is the poor offense of ARI. ARI is the 29th out of 30 teams to start and has scored only 6 runs. All be it that the SD offense has not exploded either. Today though ARI will have another mismatched pitching disadvantage as SD Blake Snell is much better than ARI Smith. SD should get some help on offense too as Smith has command issues with a BB rate of 9.19 in 9 innings! I like SD to have a bigger offensive game and this one could the one. Caleb Smith threw twice vs SD last season. He threw 4.1 innings allowing 9 hits and 8 runs! He also gave SD 9 BBs in those games! ARI batters have 60at-bats vs SNell with only 6 hits for an average of .095. I do again like the full game here as the ARI bullpen is not special and it has been used up over the last couple of games.

Those are my only plays for Sunday.

Webbie Odds for Sunday 04/10

Notes: BAL starting pitcher Wells has been a relief pitcher making 0 starts last season. He has been stretched out to a max of 53 pitches in spring training. TEX Howard is only listed at some sites as the starter so this may change in the morning.

For some reason, the NYM is not getting sportsbook love against WSH. It seems every day they are not high enough favorites. These late-night eve odds are typically moving towards Webbie Odds when they reopen in the morning. I expect to see the FAV in most of these games come down.

Recap of 04/08; I went 1-1 for 0 units making me 3-2 +.64 units for the two days of MLB. Lost on the RL with TB as they won the game 2-1. They certainly had their chances to make this a bigger margin as they left the bases loaded and scored only 1 run with the bases loaded and 0 outs in the 8th inning. I won with F5 Under 4.5 MIA/SF. Sometimes playing these F5 innings games can be very smart (or at least make a person look that way) as the game was 3-0 through 5 innings. The bullpens got involved with a final score of 6-5! TB was +115 and the Under was -120 so the net ended up at 0 units.

Today’s board is NOT easy to navigate. We do NOT want to play big favorites often. Sometimes is ok but over time we want to avoid this as a normal practice. Today there are 8 games -150 or better, and 4 more at -140 or better. We end with 12 of the 15 games being difficult to make money. There is one of these games I haven’t wagered on but might. It is the NYM @ WSH game where Bassitt is -143. My line shows NYM should be -178. The margin there is enough to make a wager, but the line has moved down from the -170 that it was last night. If that stays true closer to game time, I will likely play NYM but it is better to see if it comes even more! If I play, I will post an update saying I did.

On to what I have wagered this morning. At 2:05 pm, I played SEA/MIN F5 Under 4.5 -115. This is a match-up of Sonny Gray and Logan Gilbert. Both are fine pitchers with Gray more experienced and probably a bit better. Gilbert has 2 plus pitches, one is the fastball, and the other is the curveball. Gray has 3 plus pitches which are the fastball/sinker, cutter, and changeup. What I like here is that neither pitcher has faced the opponent hitters very often. Gilbert has only 12 at-bats against the MIN players and Gray only has 17. In these cases, the pitcher has the edge. Hitters tend to need to see repetitions of pitches, so at least early on in the game, I don’t expect much scoring. This selection is rotation numbers 969/970 SEA@MIN First 5 innings Under 4.5 -115

My second selection today starts at 4:05 pm. Here I find that OAK Irvin faces the PHI potent offense. Irvin is a pitcher who relies on his defense, so PHI will have balls in play. He does not get groundballs either with a GB% of 38.5% and has a high hard-hit rate! These make for a good PHI opportunity to get some runs. The PHI pitcher is Gibson. He is a groundball guy facing a below-average offense. I like the idea that PHI can get ahead while facing Irvin here by hitting some damaging blows. I played rotation #980 PH F5 RL -.5 -125

The third selection for today is a late game. The start time is 8:10 pm. I like to ride good play and bad play so in this case, we have ARI who has only 5 total hits in their 1st two games of the season. I have seen this before specifically with this team, but it happens to every team at some point in the season. More importantly, we need to ride put the poor offense performance with either unders or playing opposite of them. Today my choice is to play on SD Musgrove. He can be every bit as good as Darvish and Manaea have been against ARI. My number on the game is SD -205 and the odds are -160. These are too high for me to play that way, so based on the ARI offense and riding with their poor performance, I am playing rotation #964 SD RL -1.5 +100. I also like the idea that ARI is starting Davies on the mound. He is not overwhelming and relies entirely on contact. This suits the SD offense just fine. Musgrove is a strikeout guy with power which should continue ARI struggles on offense.

Additionally, two strikeout props I played today. MIN Gray Over 4.5 -144 and PIT Keller Over 4.5 +132. I played these at half units sizings.

The early look sees several teams showing some value as a dog. The teams are SEA, BOS, and COL. Granted I think it is hard to want to wager on COL against LAD. There are many games with odds over -150. In fact, 10 of the games not including one at -149. Creativity will need to be in play when wagering on Saturday. How about the final game of the day with Verlander and Syndergaard?

Today is Friday or MLB Opening Day part 2! I did not play any of the noonish games. I find the White Sox at Detroit to be the most intriguing one. Giolito goes against Rodriguez in the DET home opener. Lost of buzz around DET. My number is CHW -141 and the number is climbing to almost there at -136 up from -120. CHW is deep in the pen, and the division champs so I expect them to win the game, but I don’t like the value.

My first play is at 3:10 with the Tampa Bay Rays. Last season the Rays beat the Orioles 18 out of 19 games! This game is a spot where I believe the runline is a good wager. I am on rotation #924 TB -1.5 +115. We have a pitching match-up of McClanahan and Means. First off, Means is inferior with sabermetric SIER and xFIP results so McClanahan is the better pitcher. The important part of this is digging in a bit further to understand that TB should have no issue getting balls in play and great contact as well. Means’ barrel rate is 10.1% which is 2nd highest on the board today. He does not get a league average of strikeouts nor does he get groundballs (the Flyball rate is 47.1%). This leads to balls in play and possibly damaging hits. His repertoire is a fastball and a change-up as his best pitches. TB’s offense is very good against both of those types of pitches with 52.9 runs above avg against the FB and a 7.2 avg against the change-up. BAL struggles to hit McClanahan’s best pitches which are the FB and SL (Slider). Means threw 5 times against the Rays in 2021 and these are the scores of those games in which TB won all of them: 43-, 10-2, 10-6, 9-3, and 9-7). His totals were this 26.2 INN allowing 34 hits ad 20runs! McClanahan threw 4 times and these were scores with TB winning them all: 6-3,7-2,12-3, and 9-3. I like the idea that BAL will not score very many off McClanahan and their bullpen will give many more. Take TB on the RL +115

My second and for now last play is MIA @ SF starting at 4:35. My wager is a first 5 innings Under the total of 4 -120. MIA has a hard time scoring and will be facing Logan Webb. His pitches match up very well to MIA deficiencies in offense but most pitchers will. MIA faced Webb once and it came last season where Webb completed 7 innings allowing only 3 hits with 0 runs. Alcantara is the pitcher for MIA and I think he is great! Both pitchers have dynamic sabermetrics results for xFIP and SIERA. Both pitchers limit balls in play and have great stuff via chase rates and swing and miss rates. The best part of both of these guys is their groundball rates. Alcantara has a 51.5% rate and Webb has a 62.2% rate. It won’t be easy to get damaging hits against these guys. I don’t want to play the full game under only because I am not certain how the new look MIA bullpen will fair. Another note is that Alcantara, in his first games started of the season over the last 4 seasons (not opening day starts), has pitched 25.2 INN allowing ONLY 12H and 3 runs with 22 strikeouts. He comes ready for game #1! Take rotation numbers #913/914 First 5 UNDER 4 -120.

May find some value as the day goes on and will put out if I play anything. I will be on the show at 4:30 today with Jeff. Stop by and say hello. Follow me on Twitter @Webbie20MLB to catch the shows even though they are on all the social media services.